On The Beach Share Discussion Threads

[adamb1978] 14/5/2024 10:09

there's always a big working capital outflow in H1 due seasonality of a holiday business. Operators pay for the holidays in H1 and then customer pay the operator in H2.If in doubt, check the last couple years. Working cap unwinds in H2

[mr macgregor] 14/5/2024 09:59

I'm shocked by the interims with numerous red flags in the accounts. There should have been separate commentary from the CFO as explanation of finances is very poor. For example cash outflow was a staggering £118.9m in six months. Cash in hand has shot down from £75.8m to £7.7m while short term debt has shot up from zero to £55m. The trite explanation given is "Operating cashflows of £118.9m represents investments made by the Group in to online and offline marketing as well as the working capital required to fund the customer deposits scheme and meet agreed advances to hoteliers." It's not good enough and they will run into cashflow problems if trade receivables are slow in arriving. Looks like a classic case of overtrading and certainly not one for widows and children.

[undervaluedassets] 14/5/2024 09:53

Is that the short-termers out then.. feels like it..

[weemonkey] 14/5/2024 09:29

RYA followed by JET2

I dont hold masses of anything. ( not too much in one sector this being travel)

The risks are extraneous in my view.. but real. Huge War another pandemic and it will not be pretty.

But I think a summer holiday is a non-negotiable for most folk and the sector remains cheap

in aggregate the travel shares I am in are still 50% off their highs

[adamb1978] 14/5/2024 09:20

weemonkey - interesting that you hold multiple in the sector. Aside from OTB, which is your favourite from that list?
Thanks

[london07] 14/5/2024 09:14

Anyone surprised if OTB finishes blue by COP today? How many times have we seen this.

When investors actually read the results, they will realise, OTB should be 10% up not 10% down lol


hxxps://www.insidermedia.com/news/north-west/on-the-beach-targets-further-growth-after-strong-first-half

[weemonkey] 14/5/2024 09:03

I am in them all.

Easyjet, Rya, Tui, Jet2, SSPG and OTB

The sector has a long way to travel yet after the pandemic.

The market is being obtuse this morning with profit taking by short-termers most of whom probably bought yesterday.

And looking back OTB has always been a volatile stock

So it is nothing new simply more of the same.

The underlying business is clearly firing.. so fine... My intention to be here for years not just one day

[alotto] 14/5/2024 09:02

Wishful thinkers ignoring the fundamentals right now.

[adamb1978] 14/5/2024 08:59

Agree Oxman. Let’s see how the day unfolds. Results were very good but can understand people who made 15% in less than 24 hours exiting.

Interims support the 14.3p EPS for the year, and I think there's a decent chance those are exceeded. If you then look at the 18.8p forecast for Sept-26, these are great value anywhere below 250p

[gripfit] 14/5/2024 08:53

Hi John … good the hear from u … r u in jet 2?

[john09] 14/5/2024 08:50

Poor

They are losing out to easyjet and jet2 and that will get worse

[elsa7878] 14/5/2024 08:44

As usual the management pay themselves £1.6m in bonuses when the business made £1.8m ex-intangibles. Whatever the results they award themselves huge LT share awards. In a normal full year they equate to over 20% of profits. Outrageous (plus fat salaries too)...

[its the oxman] 14/5/2024 08:37

Yep, not bad results at all, prospects remain good with big money to be made in h2. Suspect it may recover a bit by the close.

[blazerboy1] 14/5/2024 08:31

Usual treeshake hold the line

[johndoe23] 14/5/2024 08:30

Support at 145p maybe

[kibes] 14/5/2024 08:29

All of yesterday's gain is gone. All those people who have set 'stop losses' are certain to see them taken out as panic sets in for absolutely no reason.

[gripfit] 14/5/2024 08:20

Share price isn’t ‘ booking genius’㊃5;🤣

[weemonkey] 14/5/2024 08:10

Day traders from yesterday selling into strong open today.

nothing detrimental in the results and good prospects.

Good results and a nice price at the open

what is not to like.

[highlands] 14/5/2024 08:04

Buy the rumours and sell the news.They will move up after the news is properly digested over the next few days.

[adamb1978] 14/5/2024 08:02

Not much to dislike in those figures. Even the value end is up marginally and that's where the pricing pressures wereThink this should trade on a mid teens multiple and as a base case could get to 18-20p EPS for its Sept-26 year, so perhaps 270p-300p in just over 2 years.

[undervaluedassets] 14/5/2024 07:50

And now have mutually beneficial relationship with Ryanair as opposed to oppositional one as formerly

[boonkoh] 14/5/2024 07:41

Agreed Adam. Key numbers to look at is the forward summer TTV which is +22% YoY, and the customer trust account which is at 196m vs 109m YoY.Huge amount of litigation exceptional cost in H1 (almost 3m) will now be significantly lower going forwards, due to conclusion of Ryanair agreement.

[adamb1978] 14/5/2024 07:36

alotto - not sure whether that's a serious post but you're ignoring the seasonality. Last year they made over 100% of the year's profits in H2 given the nature of a holiday business

[alotto] 14/5/2024 07:27

£8 millions EBITDA on adjusted basis? With a market cap of £300mln? If you look at statutory figure administive expenses were higher than gross profits. I don't see much upside for today. I hope I wrong.

[blueball] 14/5/2024 07:22

Should open 180p.