Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[aimwinner] 05/6/2024 08:26

Looks like 7 buyers biggest 250000 all at 55.1

[aimwinner] 04/6/2024 11:40

zangdook
It looks like it went through the market. There is a trade of 1109819 at 54.9725 which was the last holding Jeff disclosed.

[zangdook] 04/6/2024 09:58

Do you mean you bought them directly from JB rather than in the market?

[thebd11] 04/6/2024 08:47

I did top up a small number in a personal capacity, yes. I continue to be a big believer in the story

[this_is_me] 04/6/2024 08:22

Are you including yourself in "a number of new and existing holders who are long term, experienced investors have come in / topped up"?

[thebd11] 04/6/2024 07:05

Jeff has sold and a number of new and existing holders who are long term, experienced investors have come in / topped up. These new and existing names are supportive of the story and long term potential in the business. Hopefully now this overhang has gone the price ceiling can be lifted!

[this_is_me] 04/6/2024 06:50

Interestingly the Place of completion is stated to be Toronto, Canada. So how did that work and who owns the shares now? All as clear as mud.

[tiswas] 04/6/2024 06:46

Why have I got the tune to "ding dong the wicked witch is dead" running through my mind!

[zangdook] 04/6/2024 06:19

Exit Jeff.

[this_is_me] 21/5/2024 18:40

No indication of who is buying Jeff's shares.

[zangdook] 20/5/2024 08:36

There's been no suggestion they'll stop paying.

[tiswas] 20/5/2024 08:09

I have taken my eye off the ball here as it is now a relatively small holding for me.

Stockopedia have no dividend pencilled in for this year and next. That's not right is it?

[rmillaree] 15/5/2024 11:47

that probably seems strange at face value - but perhaps if he had an active sell in that was keeping the price down ?

in the absence of info the contgrary i supect he might just keep on selling in similar manner ? not sure if anyone else agrees

normally i would expect price to remain depressed however 60p seems to be holding up - what we dont know if where price may have been if it wasnt known that he was active seller - i suspect few may may be releuctant to add if his continual selling is likely to be short term drag - or they feel that may provide cheaper enrty point.

although 70p seems like the promised last perhaps if they push on with decent trading this new year that level may be seen ?

[this_is_me] 15/5/2024 10:22

Jeff sells a large chunk of shares and the share price goes up.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 08/5/2024 17:52

Probably because then they'd actually have to do one.

[george1964] 08/5/2024 16:46

Hybridan released a new research report on NTBR whilst maintaining their forecasts for FY24 and FY25, noting that "Northern Bear is currently trading at P/E of 4.12x for FY24 and 3.98x for FY25 based on our forecast and the market capitalisation on 7 May 2024 based on the post-tender reduced number of shares. We think this remains an attractive level." Based on Hybridan's prior research report from 24 Oct 2023, their DCF "yields a valuation of 117.8p" based on earnings forecasts that are unchanged since that date. It's bizarre that Hybridan would not restate their DCF valuation in each report.

[rmillaree] 05/4/2024 14:16

"I assume he had something in mind when he bought in, and it didn't come to fruition. I don't think we've ever been able to work out what it was."

If i had to guess i suspect he may have bought in on the cheap fundmentals and hope that some activism beyond what prior board did may make a quick or medium term buck , perhaps when he dug under the bonnet the reality of it is that there is no easy magical solution to transform the business and unlock shareholder value - they probably have daily hard graft done by "key workers" who know way more than Jeff as to how to deliver "reasonable" returns to central kitty pot each year. In some resepcts admiting defeat and exiting quietly rather than revolution that might destroy what value they have may be the best result for all. I would say it might have been possible to streamline and provide enhanced return for shareholders - but i wouldnt presume its a given that that would be deffo possible or practicable. Sometimes in construction/people businesses with key workers if they are too upset with change for change sake they simply depart the building and set up in competition doing it leaner better quality.

[zangdook] 05/4/2024 13:59

I assume he had something in mind when he bought in, and it didn't come to fruition. I don't think we've ever been able to work out what it was.

[rmillaree] 05/4/2024 13:21

Would you buy shares here knowing there is such a large seller active?


that depends - i 100% agree with your logic that its sensible reason not to buy if there is a seller in then market normally. However if i didnt hold and was looking to add - then if i valued the company at say closer to 90p and part of the reason its down at 60p could be due to this seller then i wouldnt necessarily be put off buying.


Note one may also take the attitide if he is the man in the know and he is selling then thats enough to tell us everything we need to know ! - in that regard though if he makes his crust elsewhere it seems like his reasons for cashing his chips in are sensibleand out in the open - i havent seen anything to make me think they are pimping up prospects so he can exit? - that would normally be a worry in situations like this.


For us long term holders in no hurry to do anything i actually care more about them simply delivering £2 millish plus pa clean earnings - if they do that at some stage the promised land of 70p plus shareprice should return imho , that could happen whilst Jeff is still selling perhaps. In that regard short term meanderings/depressed price are not really an issue.


is valuation of 6 * 14.5peps = too much to hope for ? - based on history most of the time probbaly yes unfortunately as most of the comments on here only ever seem to knock what mangement do !

[aimwinner] 05/4/2024 12:57

rmillaree

Post 463 on here

I found JB (former NTBR chairman) on LinkedIn and spoke to him. He's in "no rush to sell" his remaining shares which are now a "small part" of his portfolio and he is "happy to hold them". According to Hybridan, the stock is trading at 4x next year's earnings.

Would you buy shares here knowing there is such a large seller active?
Looking at the trades this week 60p seems to be price they changed hands at.

[rmillaree] 05/4/2024 12:32

Aimwinner
"So much for him being a long-term patient holder then!"

You have lost me - i have taken the viewpoint that Jeff wants to exit the building - imho that was made pretty clear in the tender offer last october - so imho this isnt a surprise.

per company last October

As part of this strategic review, the Board explored potential exit options for all Shareholders, including Jeff Baryshnik, as the Company's largest shareholder.

Aimwinner
"Seems no reason to buy at the moment."

I would certainly agree that if Jeff is offloading his shares on ongoing basis - or there is the hint he would offload on spike up - then i would say that would explain why the shareprice can perhaps be expected to go nowhere "all other things being equal"

I was actually slightly surprised price didnt drift back down earlier as imho it was reasonably clear Jeff wanting to exit and the one off tender offer were slightly at odds if Jeff needs/wants to sell the rest sooner rather than later.

ref "all other things being equal"
On a more positive note looking at the underlying financials i currently have pencilled in 14.5p normalised eps expectations for 2025 - so i wouldnt say "all other things are equal". the trend in the companies EPS is upward (ok that might be related to tender offer) and we are NOW into the 2025 year - so thats now current years earnings where as previously it was next years earnings. Will be interesting to see if and when the pencil in some figures for next year (ye 31/3/2026 - 2026 year !).

Note if the company is doing nothing other than churning out £2 mill pa in "clean" profits - there is decent hope to presume that that alone may result in upward trending shareprice - imho this is depsite the fcat the next 18 months cashflow may be exiting the building siompky to pay for that tender offer - one cant deny if we own decent chunk more of company and balance shet is back where it was in under 24 months thats not a terrible result. So lets not ignore £2mill ish (plus hopefully) pa of good clean profit should be good news at 60p sharepirce ?

[aimwinner] 05/4/2024 11:45

Zang

So much for him being a long-term patient holder then!

That explains the volumes but at this rate it will take him forever and where will the price end up.

Seems no reason to buy at the moment.

[zangdook] 05/4/2024 11:36

So Jeff's dumped 75k shares, still got 1.6m.

[rmillaree] 22/3/2024 14:14

all i lokked for was broker projections - thats all i ever want to see as the other info i can colate (not saying its not useful to have) - would i be correct in saying there are no broker projections contained ? if thats the case i will also chuckle at that last paragraph.

even if its rehashing prior cvalcualted expectations it gives me some confidence that they are strill on track - ie if they had included broker note say yep expected 11p eps this year and 14.5p penciled in next year - i woudl have gone great looks like there is no profit warning on the way - without it i am thinking why didnt they include.

I would say i suspect they wouldnt have uploaded any of tis info if they were about to warn.

Please let me know if broker forecasts are included in this presentation i very much skim read it.

[taylor20] 22/3/2024 11:14

Last para on the last page, made me chuckle, given the views expressed on this thread.