Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[value hound] 05/4/2023 07:04

It seems we needn't have been worried

[tiswas] 04/4/2023 14:35

As a large shareholder I am hoping his interests are aligned with mine, but who knows?

[aimwinner] 04/4/2023 13:48

tiswas
My worry is that given that we have seen no plan so far Jeff does something drastic that would damage the group long term to try and get the price up or some cash out.

[tiswas] 04/4/2023 11:53

Why did he take a stake? Its hardly a vanity purchase, a series of businesses in the North East of a foreign country. And why has the former stockbroker also built a stake?

I haven't got all the answers but these are real businesses delivering real profits in which the two major shareholders have paper losses. Like us small shareholders I assume they must be a little frustrated. A bid around 60p probably would let a lot of people move on imo.

[aimwinner] 04/4/2023 11:28

What if there is no plan?
Jeff has had majority control of the board for 18 months surely if there was a plan we would have been told by now?

[tiswas] 04/4/2023 10:59

So he is a long way from that. I assume he will want a return at some point so either divi restarts. Or another tender would mean a full bid?

[zangdook] 04/4/2023 10:38

I believe so, and 90% for compulsory purchase.

[tiswas] 04/4/2023 10:37

What is needed for a delisting, I thought it was over 75%?

[zangdook] 04/4/2023 10:22

They have under 40% between them, they'd have to carry a lot of other holders along, or make an offer. I wouldn't complain if Jeff wanted to do another 72p tender.

correction - they have 41.36% between them. The significant holdings page of the website has not been updated to reflect the RNS of 17 Sept 22.

[davidosh] 04/4/2023 10:18

I think the fear may be a de listing and the two large holders would carry that through

[tiswas] 04/4/2023 09:48

Wow.

Trading below ntav and a pe of under 4 by my reckoning?

Surely something has to give as 2 largest holders are from financial backgrounds and have bought in to the company, presumably with a plan? Largest shareholder is down 50% yet it is a very solid profitable company with little or no debt.

All imo

Puzzling!

[zangdook] 04/4/2023 09:05

under 40p to buy now.

[tiswas] 27/3/2023 12:43

So cedarvale bought 4.6m at 72p in October 2019.

Not exactly deal of the century!

[aimwinner] 17/2/2023 09:58

Thanks tiswas

Interesting!

[tiswas] 16/2/2023 21:55

hxxps://northernbearplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/proxy-July-2022-final.pdf

[aimwinner] 16/2/2023 21:04

tiswas
I agree we seem to be going nowhere but what do you make of this from the AGM?

Result of AGM

The board of directors of Northern Bear announces that, at its Annual General Meeting ("AGM") held earlier today, all resolutions were duly passed with over 99% of votes cast being voted in favour. For resolutions 2 and 3 only, a total of 2,990,425 shares abstained from voting.

That is almost the same number as B-D has, what resolutions were they and why only abstain for 2 of them?

[tiswas] 14/2/2023 11:34

The only consolation is that Mr Big has a lot more money tied up in his shareholding and going nowhere than I do.

And why no activism from Beaumone-Dark with 16%?

Make your own mind up!

[zangdook] 14/2/2023 10:56

There have been no stories on the news page of the website for over a year. Previously they were fairly frequent.



2023 - 0 stories
2022 - 2
2021 - 9
2020 - 9
2019 - 17
2018 - 17

[value hound] 25/1/2023 10:18

This may not warrant much of a multiple given the nature of what they do - but even assigning hardly anything for that, it's very hard to make a case for this being worth anything less than around c.£13m / c.70pps IMO - and there would be plenty holders disappointed at that price if, say, a bid succeeded.

But the gist of the message of words to the effect that "we could pay a decent divi but we aren't doing til we've decided what our strategy is" comes across as a tad amateurish - and one could argue there's no point holding.

Nevertheless, <44p to buy is beginning to look extreme value.

Any thoughts?

[rmillaree] 25/11/2022 19:23

taylor20
"I didn't consider the balance sheet stretched when Jeff I bought in.

(Just checked: 2019 £2m net cash, 2018 £-0.8m, £0.6m net cash 2017, £-2.5m 2016, £-4.8m 2015, £-5.6m 2014)."

Net cash is not even half the story

They might have had £2 mill in the bank in 2019 but they had trade payable £1.6 mill higher than receivables - per latest interims they have receivables higher than trade payables by £4.5 mill. So thats a decent swing in the right direction. Overall looking at what i would class as liquid assets they are certainly the better part of £3 million better off overall. (cash debtors creditor tax liabilities - i have ignored plant and inventories)

Note high trade payables can be the secret killer of a business - if companies are slightly woorfied you may not be able to pay they could remove theri credit quikcly en masse ! - so to me its 100% clear the business is in better nick than it has been for quite a few years in that regard and overall!! - its also basic maths if they add £1 mill each 6 months to where they are now sooner or later that will feed through to positive sharreprice appeciation all other things being equal.

[zangdook] 25/11/2022 16:15

I don't want change, I want certainty. They can just go back to building stuff and paying out 4p a year if they don't have a better idea. "We want to do something different but we can't decide what" is not a viable long term strategy.

[taylor20] 25/11/2022 16:14

I must be misremembering but, pre Jeff, the company moved from massively indebted to holding substantial cash, whilst paying a chunky dividend year on year. Now we seem to be treading water and not paying a dividend whilst we wait for something to happen (Something - probably not in the best interest of small share holders).

I bought in (2014 & 2015) as they were throwing off cash, reducing debt and kicking out a chunky dividend, the trajectory was pretty clear to me. It got to the point where I thought there must be some sharp accounting going on! (Dodgy acquisitions aside).

I didn't consider the balance sheet stretched when Jeff I bought in.

(Just checked: 2019 £2m net cash, 2018 £-0.8m, £0.6m net cash 2017, £-2.5m 2016, £-4.8m 2015, £-5.6m 2014).

I presume the line "i would say revolution is always what is needed." should have been "i would say revolution is NOT always what is needed." - which I agree with.

Having just had APP 'stolen' from me, not keen for that to happen here.

[graham1ty] 25/11/2022 14:53

Rapid change ??

Jeff bought his shares in the Tender Offer in October 2019.

So, it is over three years since he took an interest.

The lack of any visible progress is why the shares remain 35% below the level he paid.

Any change would do……..

[rmillaree] 25/11/2022 13:33

"Not sure these results will move the share price significantly …just expected the capital allocation review to be completed by now - not saying the results aren’t good - just not sure what will trigger a re-rating atm"

On a lfl basis the financials are improving every 6 months whilst the keep churning out the resulats they have been doing. If they can add 2 mill per year onto the tnav presuming no divis paid then trust me the share price must rerate at some stage.

Part of the reason for the lack of rerating imho has been the fact that practicably speaking the balance sheet sheet hitorically has been somewhat stretched. If they dont make an acquisition and dont pay a divi the balance sheet should soon start to look very healthy. On current trends they should be permanently net cash positive within 12 months if they just keep doing their job and have no divis etc.


I am happy to wait for value to out - i would say well done to team for generating £1 mill plus of net profit in 6 months. Its also good to hear that they are concentrating on higher margin work too. Who knows perhaps they may come up witha cunning plan to unlock the value here.

Finally alot of peeps seem to wantto see rapid changes along lines that suit their narrative - where a company is fundamentally sounds and doing a decent job - i would say revolution is NOT (edited)always what is needed.