Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[george1964] 17/7/2023 12:20

Hybridan released another research report today following the results, increasing their DCF valuation to 101.4 (up 2.3p from their 99.1p prior DCF valuation). One of the comparable companies used in their valuation for both reports, Sureserve Group (SUR), was acquired by private equity on 11th July.

[knigel] 17/7/2023 09:40

Also FY23 is misleading as the year end is 31st March not 31st December!

[zangdook] 17/7/2023 09:20

In April they said

"...the Group is pleased to announce its intention to declare an ordinary dividend of 4p per share plus a special dividend for FY23 of 1p per share. Going forward, the ordinary dividend is expected to be paid semi-annually, with half paid after each of the year-end period and the half year period, respectively."

I took that to mean a single 4p dividend, with the interim/final structure beginning the following year ("going forward").

This part is confusing though - "half paid after each of the year-end period and the half year period, respectively". You'd expect them to say it the other way around if they were doing things normally, but to say "after the year-end period and the following year's half-year period" if they meant to do it that way.

[knigel] 17/7/2023 09:11

I understand the confusion about the dividend timings but they issued the interim results in November 2022 and updated shareholders on the dividend strategy in April 2023 - too late to pay the interim and they did say it would be split 50/50. I do wonder though if the 2p payable next March is for the 2023/24 interim results or whether there will be an additional dividend for this period?? Will be adding on weakness as the first dividend is payable September and we go ex-dividend next month.

[royaloak] 17/7/2023 09:03

Happy to pick up a few in the Auction, will see what is happening at 11am.

[this_is_me] 17/7/2023 08:46

I'm not too bothered about the share price now that they are back to paying large dividends.

[zangdook] 17/7/2023 08:39

Since they haven't even bothered adding anything to the News page on their website, or sending anything at all to their email list, for over a year, I take the guff about "increasing engagement" as nothing more than boilerplate waffle.

[davidosh] 17/7/2023 08:37

They need to do a presentation on a Mello show

[shearluc] 17/7/2023 08:28

Good set of results, What they need to do now is to crank up their PR Machine ... they mentioned in recent RNS about increasing Shareholder engagement ... Their twitter feed hasn't been updated for more than a year!

A results / company presentation would be a start.

Solid little company .... but nobody has heard of them!

[royaloak] 17/7/2023 08:06

Two big sales so far....I will be adding.

edit three big sales

[this_is_me] 17/7/2023 08:05

The numbers seem to be going in the right direction; the revenue has increased steadily over the years. The key to the future would seem to be to avoid making any large contract losses. The odd small loss on a contract is part of life but screwing up shows there is a problem. Hopefully management changes will have sorted the problem.

[zangdook] 17/7/2023 07:36

Hmmm

These are the results for the whole year. They didn't pay an interim dividend during the year, so I would have expected them to pay the promised 4p (+1p) dividend in one go, and then start their two-dividends-a-year policy from the current year to March 2024, with an interim during the year and a final after the final results.

The way they're doing it is to pay half the 2023 dividend in September and half in March 2024. The whole point of an interim dividend is that it's paid in the interim, before the final results are in. Looked at that way, in effect we're only getting half of the 2023 dividend. Then in March 2024 we'll get what I would consider the 2024 interim.

Is the September dividend going to be called an interim dividend, and the March 2024 a final dividend?

- - with half paid after each of the year-end period and the half year period, respectively.

Really? In that order?

Not very happy. And there's nothing about last year's dividend which they told us at the time they could afford to pay but would hold back because they were still dithering about the dividend policy. I had taken the special 1p as a small gesture towards that, but it doesn't feel like it now.

[value hound] 17/7/2023 07:28

I don't see any way this should be valued less than >£15m / 80pps - and that's still being extremely stingy.

Excellent results - and well done on the divi NTBR; maybe they read this board!? :-)

[shearluc] 16/7/2023 14:23

I think so yes ... fingers crossed for some good results

[value hound] 16/7/2023 10:48

Is it finals day tomorrow as per Sharecast's diary?

[fillipe] 14/7/2023 15:47

There's only 12k shrs on each side of the bid/ask, with the highest ask on show @ 65.5p

f.

[this_is_me] 12/7/2023 14:50

The number of shares traded is hardly large although above average. The market makers must be short of stock.

[zangdook] 12/7/2023 13:52

Broker – every AIM company is required to retain a broker at all times. The broker – who must be a London Stock Exchange Member Firm – acts at the main interface with the stock market, assessing market conditions, the demand for your company's shares and actively marketing them to investors.

[zangdook] 12/7/2023 13:49

Thanks George.

Since Hybridan are the company's broker and presumably paid to write them up I would have thought their note might have been made freely accessible.

Still nothing added to the news page of the website since Feb 2022.

[knigel] 12/7/2023 13:40

Many thanks for this - added earlier and share price went up 2p so maybe not much liquidity atm..?

[george1964] 12/7/2023 13:28

Below are excerpts of the report from Hybridan, titled Ready to shine: attractive valuation, high dividend yield and predictable profitability.

Our DCF model based on a WACC of 13.31% and a 3% terminal growth rate yields a valuation of 99.1p, an upside of 100%. We believe Northern Bear’s business performance and dividend payouts, coupled with better capital market visibility over time, will gradually drive up its share price.

Northern Bear is currently trading at 0.15x EV/sales, 2.58x EV/EBITDA adjusted and 6.26x P/E multiple based on our FY23 forecasts and the closing share price on 10 July 2023.

Notably, even at our DCF valuation of 99.1p, which is approximately double today’s share price, Northern Bear still would be trading at a discount to the most relevant comparable companies.

[Comparable companies cited in the report include Sureserve (SUR) at 7.2x EBITDA and 14.1x P/E; Water Intelligence (WATR) at 6.6x EBITDA and 15.6x P/E; and HomeServe acquisition recently completed at 17.7x EBITDA. Private equity is active in the specialist building services industry at c.13.9x EBITDA, citing the Lincoln facilities services index.]

[knigel] 12/7/2023 10:20

Sadly no - I presumed the buying is ahead of the final results next week. The company intends to pay a final dividend of 4p plus a 1p special dividend so the shares are worth buying for the 9% yield alone! (Imo)

[tiswas] 12/7/2023 08:41

I see there is a lengthy research note out from Hybridan which explains the share price movement.

I do not currently subscribe to researchtree.com, can anyone share or summarise?

[knigel] 30/6/2023 13:39

Added today ahead of news next month - seriously the share price s/b nearer £1 than 50p!!

[rmillaree] 23/5/2023 19:13

Unless they change their mind and are in need of a suitable broker to do the delisting.
Note i am not making any presumption this company would be looking to delist - i was previously simply thinking aloud that If they wanted to could we stop em? and the answer is probably no?
Hopefully its as simple as these peeps seeing taht the potantial if for shareprice closer to £1 if they can drive profits up and build more liquidity ref shares.