Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[sbs] 23/11/2023 18:20

Does anyone have a prediction for the tender offer take up?I'm assuming our main shareholder has tendered his entire stake - but never know if anyone else is even paying attention!

[george1964] 30/10/2023 19:47

zangdook, the buyback is 33% accretive to EPS according to Hybridan. As far as I am aware, the only thing Jeff and Bankman-Fried have in common is their religion, whilst your profile lists your profession as Sturmbannführer, so I think your position is now doubly clear.

[zangdook] 30/10/2023 07:53

net cash at 30 Sept of £400k, which is all going to be spent on fees for the tender to bail out Jeff Bankman-Fried.

[royaloak] 30/10/2023 07:27

Trading statement looks good.

[george1964] 24/10/2023 13:56

8.8% dividend yield at today's midmarket share price

[george1964] 24/10/2023 13:54

Per the Hybridan research report (one assumes, based upon guidance from management): "We also assume a dividend payout of 5p per share (including a 1p special dividend) declared for FY23 to be made in FY24."

[aimwinner] 24/10/2023 13:29

tiswas
Dividend!!
They will have paid out £4M to shareholders in 1 year and taken on debt to do so, why would they want to pay a dividend and not reduce the debt level?

[tiswas] 24/10/2023 12:29

Wow! What are they assuming on dividends george?

[george1964] 24/10/2023 11:47

Hybridan released its research report following yesterday’s tender offer announcement. Their EPS estimate for next year “increases from 10.9p to 14.5p or +33% EPS accretion” assuming the full buyback whilst the P/E ratio declines to 3.9x at today’s midmarket share price. Assuming the full buyback “yields a valuation of 117.8p” or “an upside of 108%” based on their DCF analysis.

[aimwinner] 23/10/2023 17:01

Zang

The accounts show him as having received no payment for being a director in any of the years.
The question is how much influence has the new nonex had on this process, he seems overqualified for a tiny AIM company, and what will happen to the 2 Jeff appointed directors will they stay?

[zangdook] 23/10/2023 16:27

ed - He bought 4,655,217 shares at 72p and he's trying to sell them at 62p, but he's had 3p in dividends (I don't think there were any other dividends since the 2019 tender offer) so that's a loss of 7p a share, or £325k. He has another 80k or so of shares that he bought in the market, I don't know what he paid for those. Say he broke even on those, he will have lost £325k minus whatever directors' fees he's managed to get.

That's assuming he sells all his shares at 62p, which is unlikely.

[ed_derby] 23/10/2023 15:50

Just catching up - and not had time to fully digest the news - except that the share price is up :-)

Zangdook - I note your comments on Jeff being a "business genius" ... is it possible to tell if he'll have made any money over his tenure ?

Let's hope that things start to pick up without him .. and the directors who have got rid of him can take things forwards.

[graham1ty] 23/10/2023 13:19

I suspect the best thing to do is Tender all you holding, knowing you will be scaled back. Then, on the next profit warning, but it back at the lower level 😂😂

[zangdook] 23/10/2023 13:00

I'd guess the only thing that made it impractical was Jeff wanting a better price.

[this_is_me] 23/10/2023 12:59

Those shareholders that will not be taking part in the tender offer do not want to sell so they will not agree to putting the entire company for sale. They will be delighted to increase their % shareholding and reduce the P/E ratio to an even smaller value. You have to decide whether copying JB or copying those not selling is the best option.

[taylor20] 23/10/2023 12:54

Part of me says screw it I'm happy for the share price to get hammered due to a known stock overhang (gives us long term holders chance to accumulate on the cheap), JB should suffer the same pain as other shareholders.

The other part of me (the one that doubled its holding last week), says bring it on, 32% profit in a couple of days is timing to die for.


Presumably there are also fees involved with Buy Back schemes, and other limitations (especially ones in thinly traded small caps), that make the Buy Back route impractical?

[tiswas] 23/10/2023 11:27

Surely you have to offer all shareholders the same deal?

Obviously not found a buyer for the whole company in this market, JB didn't want to make a full bid and no institution interested in his shares by way of a secondary placing. Not sure what else they could do but the overhang will hold us back. Anyone seen the Hybrian note?

[zangdook] 23/10/2023 10:58

In fact it will be more than £400k - "an aggregate of approximately GBP400,000 (inclusive of VAT but excluding fees calculated as a product of the total number of Ordinary Shares repurchased)"

We know JB is tendering his entire holding, so the number of shares repurchased is guaranteed to be at least 4,736,717.

As an alternative to a tender or on-market buyback they could have just bought JB out and saved the £400k. Then give us the £400k as a ~3p special dividend.

[graham1ty] 23/10/2023 10:40

Costs of the Tender ? £400,000 !!! Which is about 13% of the Tender value.

So, rather than making Jeff sell in the market, or another option, the Company buying back shares in the market ( in the 40s) the Company ( well, it’s shareholders actually own it) have to put up £400,000 costs to help buy out their Chair !!! You could not make it up.

£400,000 is 5% of the value of the whole Company at last week’s pre tender price.

[zangdook] 23/10/2023 08:28

No indication of what they plan to do with the treasury shares.

[zangdook] 23/10/2023 08:20

The Company and registrars will endeavour to not leave tendering Shareholders with an uneconomic small shareholding.

I wonder what size they consider uneconomic.

[patsc100] 23/10/2023 08:17

@Graham

This will increase EPS and considering that we're trading at 5x earnings or so, this will have a 20% IRR on buybacks. The debt will likely be around 5%?

Hence, this creates a little bit more than 15% IRR (w/o tax shield) in shareholder value.

[graham1ty] 23/10/2023 07:59

Oh, I see Beaumont Dark has given an irrevocable. So, he will NOT tender any. And must support the deal.

One of the reasons given is that:”The Tender Offer would remove the prolonged uncertainty that an overhang of shares would create, should any significant Shareholders wish to sell their holdings through the market”

Well, er, one does, JB. Has he threatened to sell in the market ?

Secondly, “The Tender Offer would enhance the Company's capital structure“. Er, how ? Nothing changes at all to the Company’s capital structure, except millions of shares in Treasury. The biggest change is DEBT and that can hardly be said to enhance anything.