Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[thirty fifty twenty] 05/12/2023 12:55

we getting closer to the new slimmed down NTBR and i'm still hoping that the mgt team mop up any of those JB shares not allocated in the tender. time will tell.

all imho, dyor and bol,
ntbr is in my top5 hldgs

[sbs] 05/12/2023 10:36

They need to wait for TR-1s from the investors.
Companies don't usually find out for themselves.

[zangdook] 05/12/2023 08:03

They might have told us not only how much directors would be left with, but all major shareholders. Oh well, they'll have to file new declarations soon.

[thirty fifty twenty] 29/11/2023 18:19

thanks all for the posts. i am hoping that the directors and major shareholders might dip their hands in their pockets to clear any of the JB overhang. NB has been a steady buyer over the year and so i'd have thought he can rustle up some funds and the exec directors would make great sense for them to gear up given the low p/e and attractive order book.

all imho, dyor and bol,
ntbr is in my top 5 hldgs

[george1964] 29/11/2023 17:35

According to Hybridan in their latest research report, “Northern Bear is currently trading at 4.2x P/E multiple based on our forecasted earnings share of 14.5p for FY25, the first full fiscal year following the share buyback” and at 2.6x EV/EBITDA compared to 5.0x EV/EBITDA for the two cited comparable companies, Epwin and Kinovo.

“In summary, we think that the investment case for Northern Bear’s shares is attractive given the limited risks, attractive valuation, and high dividend yield. The majority of Northern Bear’s revenues come from the public-sector including the NHS, councils, and schools. We note that 10-15% of revenues come from new build housing, albeit in the North East and Yorkshire markets which have historically been less volatile than the South East. Most importantly, we think the buyback of up to £3.1m speaks of the management and the Board’s confidence and commitment to the growth of the Group.”

I was also pleasantly surprised to see that the cost of the buyback is £200k rather than the £400k previously reported.

[zangdook] 29/11/2023 09:04

This sort of thing is complicated by nominee holdings. In theory if I hold 100k and tender 50k the company will know that, and can allot me my 35.6% plus a proportion of the remaining 14.4% of my holding that I've tendered (or whatever formula they adopt), but with nominees as far as I'm aware the company has no visibility of how much each shareholder has, only the totals for the nominee, so assuming a nominee has some holders who tender and some who don't, the company will see only a lower proportion of overall holding tendered than the actual beneficial holders who did tender put up, and will therefore be more generous.

I hope that makes sense. Back when Raven Property was still around and held tenders in place of dividends I used to tender 100% and get acceptances well above the officially declared amount. It makes rather a mockery of the whole thing, and probably not to JB's advantage.

[sbs] 29/11/2023 08:51

Interesting task to decide formula.

I think they have to give everyone at least 35.6%, but they put in a comment about not leaving uneconomic small shareholding, which gives some flexibility.

Figures are:
5,000,000 to be cancelled
7,831,399 tendered

4,736,717 tendered by JB
3,094,682 not tendered by JB

Average cancellation: 63.85% - would leave JB 1,712,533.
If everyone else gets their 35.6%, and the rest to JB, this would leave 785k for him - still a sizeable overhang, with 21.4k/day monthly average trades.

Alternatively, give all the PIs 100%, leaving JB 2.8m (still better for him than 35.6% reduction). He can then sell on the market at a lower price (notionally in compensation for all the trouble he caused) and the now cash rich PIs and long term shareholders can pick up the overhang at a good price, with press coverage on NTBR's success and low price bringing in new investors to pick up all the overhang.

[zangdook] 29/11/2023 08:18

We don't know exactly how they'll work it out - I imagine everyone gets the first 35.6% of their holding redeemed, if tendered, and then higher tenders divide the rest, but very roughly, and ignoring that sort of sophistication, it looks as though JB may end up holding about 1.7m shares.

[this_is_me] 29/11/2023 07:19

Great results.

"These results represent a significant improvement on what were considered very strong results in the prior period ended 30 September 2022."

"Despite ongoing macro-economic challenges and their related impact on the construction industry, our site activity levels remained high during the Period across our Group of companies."

7,831,399 shares tendered. Maximum aggregate number of Ordinary Shares that could be purchased pursuant to the Tender Offer was 5,000,000. That still leaves a bit of an overhang.

[thirty fifty twenty] 27/11/2023 16:40

ok thks. i misread dates and lines in rns

[aimwinner] 27/11/2023 15:19

The tender closed on 22nd, results on 29th as per zangdook above

[zangdook] 27/11/2023 15:15

29, I think

[thirty fifty twenty] 27/11/2023 14:43

were the tender results not due on 22 nov....

[zangdook] 23/11/2023 23:27

I took it up on the principle that I'll probably be able to buy back cheaper before too long. It may not work out but it certainly did with the last tender.

[jaf111] 23/11/2023 20:27

29 Nov tender results i think

[ed_derby] 23/11/2023 19:27

i didn't take it up ... if that helps

when do we find out the details ?

[sbs] 23/11/2023 18:20

Does anyone have a prediction for the tender offer take up?I'm assuming our main shareholder has tendered his entire stake - but never know if anyone else is even paying attention!

[george1964] 30/10/2023 19:47

zangdook, the buyback is 33% accretive to EPS according to Hybridan. As far as I am aware, the only thing Jeff and Bankman-Fried have in common is their religion, whilst your profile lists your profession as Sturmbannführer, so I think your position is now doubly clear.

[zangdook] 30/10/2023 07:53

net cash at 30 Sept of £400k, which is all going to be spent on fees for the tender to bail out Jeff Bankman-Fried.

[royaloak] 30/10/2023 07:27

Trading statement looks good.

[george1964] 24/10/2023 12:56

8.8% dividend yield at today's midmarket share price

[george1964] 24/10/2023 12:54

Per the Hybridan research report (one assumes, based upon guidance from management): "We also assume a dividend payout of 5p per share (including a 1p special dividend) declared for FY23 to be made in FY24."

[aimwinner] 24/10/2023 12:29

tiswas
Dividend!!
They will have paid out £4M to shareholders in 1 year and taken on debt to do so, why would they want to pay a dividend and not reduce the debt level?

[tiswas] 24/10/2023 11:29

Wow! What are they assuming on dividends george?