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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Bear Plc | NTBR | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 59.00 | 08:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59.00 | 59.00 | 59.00 | 59.00 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| SUPPORT SERVICES |
| Announcement Date | Type | Currency | Dividend Amount | Ex Date | Record Date | Payment Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2023 | Interim | GBP | 0.02 | 22/02/2024 | 23/02/2024 | 15/03/2024 |
| 05/04/2023 | Special | GBP | 0.01 | 24/08/2023 | 25/08/2023 | 15/09/2023 |
| 15/07/2019 | Final | GBP | 0.0325 | 08/08/2019 | 09/08/2019 | 30/08/2019 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 05/4/2024 13:57 by aimwinner rmillareePost 463 on here I found JB (former NTBR chairman) on LinkedIn and spoke to him. He's in "no rush to sell" his remaining shares which are now a "small part" of his portfolio and he is "happy to hold them". According to Hybridan, the stock is trading at 4x next year's earnings. Would you buy shares here knowing there is such a large seller active? Looking at the trades this week 60p seems to be price they changed hands at. |
Posted at 13/12/2023 15:08 by george1964 I found JB (former NTBR chairman) on LinkedIn and spoke to him. He's in "no rush to sell" his remaining shares which are now a "small part" of his portfolio and he is "happy to hold them". According to Hybridan, the stock is trading at 4x next year's earnings. |
Posted at 05/12/2023 12:55 by thirty fifty twenty we getting closer to the new slimmed down NTBR and i'm still hoping that the mgt team mop up any of those JB shares not allocated in the tender. time will tell.all imho, dyor and bol, ntbr is in my top5 hldgs |
Posted at 29/11/2023 18:19 by thirty fifty twenty thanks all for the posts. i am hoping that the directors and major shareholders might dip their hands in their pockets to clear any of the JB overhang. NB has been a steady buyer over the year and so i'd have thought he can rustle up some funds and the exec directors would make great sense for them to gear up given the low p/e and attractive order book.all imho, dyor and bol, ntbr is in my top 5 hldgs |
Posted at 29/11/2023 17:35 by george1964 According to Hybridan in their latest research report, “Northern Bear is currently trading at 4.2x P/E multiple based on our forecasted earnings share of 14.5p for FY25, the first full fiscal year following the share buyback” and at 2.6x EV/EBITDA compared to 5.0x EV/EBITDA for the two cited comparable companies, Epwin and Kinovo.“In summary, we think that the investment case for Northern Bear’s shares is attractive given the limited risks, attractive valuation, and high dividend yield. The majority of Northern Bear’s revenues come from the public-sector including the NHS, councils, and schools. We note that 10-15% of revenues come from new build housing, albeit in the North East and Yorkshire markets which have historically been less volatile than the South East. Most importantly, we think the buyback of up to £3.1m speaks of the management and the Board’s confidence and commitment to the growth of the Group.” I was also pleasantly surprised to see that the cost of the buyback is £200k rather than the £400k previously reported. |
Posted at 24/10/2023 13:56 by george1964 8.8% dividend yield at today's midmarket share price |
Posted at 24/10/2023 13:54 by george1964 Per the Hybridan research report (one assumes, based upon guidance from management): "We also assume a dividend payout of 5p per share (including a 1p special dividend) declared for FY23 to be made in FY24." |
Posted at 17/7/2023 15:26 by patsc100 Update on #NTBR - Northern Bear from my side.Disclosure: I own shares I have been closely monitoring the activities of NTBR for a significant period, and it appears that Jeff is implementing the necessary measures to drive positive changes within the organization. I am of the opinion that his efforts will yield further improvements, and I do not anticipate him to acquire the business. This likely explains why he is maintaining ownership below the 30% threshold. While I agree with some shareholders that shareholder communication could be improved, I am confident that we will witness further improvements in the medium term. The research report on NTBR was an initial positive step in effectively communicating the undervaluation to the market. Presently, the valuation of this business is significantly underestimated, with a trading multiple of 5x profit and no debt, coupled with an additional 1.5x profit (equating to 3.2 million) in cash. In the interest of maintaining a margin of safety, I assume that all the cash will be required to fund working capital requirements. There remain untapped opportunities to enhance shareholder value, and I would like to propose a value creation plan going forward. One of the most crucial sections of the annual report is the "Strategy & Dividend" segment, wherein the board communicates its intention to deploy capital for organic growth (although the specifics are unclear) and acquisitions, while also returning a portion of capital via dividends. An issue we continue to encounter pertains to capital allocation. A1, due to its high capital intensity and lack of alignment with the construction-related group, is deemed a subpar business. Over the past 12 months, NTBR has invested 1.4 million pounds in capital expenditures. In the A1 companies house report, I see capital expenditures of 1.47m. Having analyzed similar construction-related enterprises, I believe that approximately >200,000 pounds would be the maximum amount required to fund the capex requirment of the construction businesses. In my view, NTBR should take the following steps: a) Dispose of the A1 forklift rental business, either through liquidation and asset sale or by finding an interested acquirer. This would decrease the company's capital intensity, mitigate risk, and enhance overall quality. Some napkin math - be cautious this is definitely wrong and misses the depreciation expenses and tax shield: It will reduce the operating profit by 240K, but also free up ca. ca 800k in cash-flow - after removing cash-inflow of 700k. b) Considering the current valuation, the optimal capital allocation approach would involve share buybacks. Unfortunately, Jeff cannot exceed the 30% ownership threshold, as doing so would necessitate a bid for the entire company. Nevertheless, NTBR could employ the proceeds to repurchase 15% of its shares without Jeff surpassing the 30% mark. Implementing a Dutch tender offer would be highly advantageous. This represents the most effective use of capital at this time, superior to dividends or reinvestments in the A1 business unit. While this would reduce the free float, it would actually enhance liquidity as legacy shareholders would have the opportunity to divest their shares, likely at a slight premium. c) The second-best option, following the repurchase of 15% of shares, would involve utilizing the capital to acquire complementary businesses and pursue a roll-up strategy. Multiples for roofing businesses and other construction-related enterprises typically range from 4-5x EBITDA, translating to returns of 15%-20% on invested capital. Given NTBR's current size, a more conservative approach would be advisable, targeting acquisitions at 3-4x EBITDA to maintain high returns. NTBR generated 2.1 million in the last twelve months. If they could reinvest that capital at a 20% rate, we would witness an earnings increase of 400,000 within a year. Although this would preclude receiving a dividend, it would be acceptable, as I am unable to reinvest my capital at such high rates. Consequently, we would possess ownership in a business trading at 5x earnings, experiencing earnings growth of 20% or more. d) further, I would like to see divestments of the non speciality construction businesses - Arcas. This is a low margin business mitigating some high construction related project risks. I am following this business further, but so far satisfied with the development. It's slow but it is progressing. It's a low % of my portfolio as of now, but I might add a few shares. |
Posted at 17/7/2023 09:11 by knigel I understand the confusion about the dividend timings but they issued the interim results in November 2022 and updated shareholders on the dividend strategy in April 2023 - too late to pay the interim and they did say it would be split 50/50. I do wonder though if the 2p payable next March is for the 2023/24 interim results or whether there will be an additional dividend for this period?? Will be adding on weakness as the first dividend is payable September and we go ex-dividend next month. |
Posted at 17/7/2023 07:36 by zangdook HmmmThese are the results for the whole year. They didn't pay an interim dividend during the year, so I would have expected them to pay the promised 4p (+1p) dividend in one go, and then start their two-dividends-a-year policy from the current year to March 2024, with an interim during the year and a final after the final results. The way they're doing it is to pay half the 2023 dividend in September and half in March 2024. The whole point of an interim dividend is that it's paid in the interim, before the final results are in. Looked at that way, in effect we're only getting half of the 2023 dividend. Then in March 2024 we'll get what I would consider the 2024 interim. Is the September dividend going to be called an interim dividend, and the March 2024 a final dividend? - - with half paid after each of the year-end period and the half year period, respectively. Really? In that order? Not very happy. And there's nothing about last year's dividend which they told us at the time they could afford to pay but would hold back because they were still dithering about the dividend policy. I had taken the special 1p as a small gesture towards that, but it doesn't feel like it now. |
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