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NTBR Northern Bear Plc

-1.00 (-1.6%)
04 Dec 2023 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Northern Bear Plc LSE:NTBR London Ordinary Share GB00B19FLM15 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.00 -1.6% 61.50 33,009 11:25:04
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
58.00 65.00 62.50 61.50 62.50
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Roof,siding,sheet Metal Work 69.72M 1.59M 0.0850 7.24 11.52M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:06:01 O 15,219 65.6806 GBX

Northern Bear (NTBR) Latest News

Northern Bear (NTBR) Discussions and Chat

Northern Bear Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
29/11/202318:19Northern Bear1,531
23/11/202323:27Northern Bear456
16/7/201914:15Northern Bear (NTBR) One to Watch on Monday 1
01/2/201607:13Northern Bear - with Charts16

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Northern Bear (NTBR) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type

Northern Bear (NTBR) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 04/12/2023 08:20 by Northern Bear Daily Update
Northern Bear Plc is listed in the Roof,siding,sheet Metal Work sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker NTBR. The last closing price for Northern Bear was 62.50p.
Northern Bear currently has 18,725,000 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Northern Bear is £11,515,875.
Northern Bear has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 7.24.
This morning NTBR shares opened at 62.50p
Posted at 29/11/2023 08:51 by sbs
Interesting task to decide formula.

I think they have to give everyone at least 35.6%, but they put in a comment about not leaving uneconomic small shareholding, which gives some flexibility.

Figures are:
5,000,000 to be cancelled
7,831,399 tendered

4,736,717 tendered by JB
3,094,682 not tendered by JB

Average cancellation: 63.85% - would leave JB 1,712,533.
If everyone else gets their 35.6%, and the rest to JB, this would leave 785k for him - still a sizeable overhang, with 21.4k/day monthly average trades.

Alternatively, give all the PIs 100%, leaving JB 2.8m (still better for him than 35.6% reduction). He can then sell on the market at a lower price (notionally in compensation for all the trouble he caused) and the now cash rich PIs and long term shareholders can pick up the overhang at a good price, with press coverage on NTBR's success and low price bringing in new investors to pick up all the overhang.
Posted at 24/10/2023 12:56 by george1964
8.8% dividend yield at today's midmarket share price
Posted at 24/10/2023 10:47 by george1964
Hybridan released its research report following yesterday’s tender offer announcement. Their EPS estimate for next year “increases from 10.9p to 14.5p or +33% EPS accretion” assuming the full buyback whilst the P/E ratio declines to 3.9x at today’s midmarket share price. Assuming the full buyback “yields a valuation of 117.8p” or “an upside of 108%” based on their DCF analysis.
Posted at 23/10/2023 14:50 by ed_derby
Just catching up - and not had time to fully digest the news - except that the share price is up :-)

Zangdook - I note your comments on Jeff being a "business genius" ... is it possible to tell if he'll have made any money over his tenure ?

Let's hope that things start to pick up without him .. and the directors who have got rid of him can take things forwards.
Posted at 23/10/2023 11:54 by taylor20
Part of me says screw it I'm happy for the share price to get hammered due to a known stock overhang (gives us long term holders chance to accumulate on the cheap), JB should suffer the same pain as other shareholders.

The other part of me (the one that doubled its holding last week), says bring it on, 32% profit in a couple of days is timing to die for.

Presumably there are also fees involved with Buy Back schemes, and other limitations (especially ones in thinly traded small caps), that make the Buy Back route impractical?
Posted at 23/10/2023 06:52 by graham1ty
Thinking a little more……

This looks remarkably like the Company bailing out Jeff, in effect using Company money to buy part of his shareholding….it is worse than that, as it is not actually Company money, it is debt, which may burden residual shareholders for quite a while.

Can a major shareholder, and Chairman, get away with this ? If I was a small shareholder,I would demand he sells his shares in the market, if he wants out, like anyone else would have to. Because of the irrevocables, it says c36% of the free shares will be bought in. As much of the Register will be dozy, dead, or long since forgotten they owned NTBR, Jeff might get away with selling half his holding. Does depend on Beaumont Dark. If he tenders no shares at all, then Jeff might be able to sell more than 50% of his shareholding.

All very dodgy
Posted at 18/8/2023 08:39 by this_is_me
Thankfully there was no takeover bid when the share price was 37p in April. Now that the share price is 65% higher is is much less likely.
Posted at 18/7/2023 09:19 by exbroker
I agree Jeff seems to have changed nothing since he took control of the board.
His and his fellow Canadian MBA`s have shown their inexperience in PLC matters with the botched dividend announcements, seems to have just been an exercise in trying to get the share price up. Also when you are potentially at the start of a housing market and maybe construction slow down you don’t go shouting that all is still good for you, there is only downside from that statement .Any slowdown would be a hit to the share price from here, let’s hope Jeff is correct and all stays good
Posted at 17/7/2023 14:26 by patsc100
Update on #NTBR - Northern Bear from my side.

Disclosure: I own shares

I have been closely monitoring the activities of NTBR for a significant period, and it appears that Jeff is implementing the necessary measures to drive positive changes within the organization.

I am of the opinion that his efforts will yield further improvements, and I do not anticipate him to acquire the business.

This likely explains why he is maintaining ownership below the 30% threshold. While I agree with some shareholders that shareholder communication could be improved, I am confident that we will witness further improvements in the medium term.

The research report on NTBR was an initial positive step in effectively communicating the undervaluation to the market.

Presently, the valuation of this business is significantly underestimated, with a trading multiple of 5x profit and no debt, coupled with an additional 1.5x profit (equating to 3.2 million) in cash. In the interest of maintaining a margin of safety, I assume that all the cash will be required to fund working capital requirements.

There remain untapped opportunities to enhance shareholder value, and I would like to propose a value creation plan going forward.

One of the most crucial sections of the annual report is the "Strategy & Dividend" segment, wherein the board communicates its intention to deploy capital for organic growth (although the specifics are unclear) and acquisitions, while also returning a portion of capital via dividends.

An issue we continue to encounter pertains to capital allocation. A1, due to its high capital intensity and lack of alignment with the construction-related group, is deemed a subpar business.

Over the past 12 months, NTBR has invested 1.4 million pounds in capital expenditures. In the A1 companies house report, I see capital expenditures of 1.47m.

Having analyzed similar construction-related enterprises, I believe that approximately >200,000 pounds would be the maximum amount required to fund the capex requirment of the construction businesses.

In my view, NTBR should take the following steps:

a) Dispose of the A1 forklift rental business, either through liquidation and asset sale or by finding an interested acquirer. This would decrease the company's capital intensity, mitigate risk, and enhance overall quality.

Some napkin math - be cautious this is definitely wrong and misses the depreciation expenses and tax shield:

It will reduce the operating profit by 240K, but also free up ca. ca 800k in cash-flow - after removing cash-inflow of 700k.

b) Considering the current valuation, the optimal capital allocation approach would involve share buybacks. Unfortunately, Jeff cannot exceed the 30% ownership threshold, as doing so would necessitate a bid for the entire company.

Nevertheless, NTBR could employ the proceeds to repurchase 15% of its shares without Jeff surpassing the 30% mark. Implementing a Dutch tender offer would be highly advantageous. This represents the most effective use of capital at this time, superior to dividends or reinvestments in the A1 business unit. While this would reduce the free float, it would actually enhance liquidity as legacy shareholders would have the opportunity to divest their shares, likely at a slight premium.

c) The second-best option, following the repurchase of 15% of shares, would involve utilizing the capital to acquire complementary businesses and pursue a roll-up strategy. Multiples for roofing businesses and other construction-related enterprises typically range from 4-5x EBITDA, translating to returns of 15%-20% on invested capital. Given NTBR's current size, a more conservative approach would be advisable, targeting acquisitions at 3-4x EBITDA to maintain high returns.

NTBR generated 2.1 million in the last twelve months. If they could reinvest that capital at a 20% rate, we would witness an earnings increase of 400,000 within a year. Although this would preclude receiving a dividend, it would be acceptable, as I am unable to reinvest my capital at such high rates. Consequently, we would possess ownership in a business trading at 5x earnings, experiencing earnings growth of 20% or more.

d) further, I would like to see divestments of the non speciality construction businesses - Arcas. This is a low margin business mitigating some high construction related project risks.

I am following this business further, but so far satisfied with the development. It's slow but it is progressing.

It's a low % of my portfolio as of now, but I might add a few shares.
Posted at 12/7/2023 12:28 by george1964
Below are excerpts of the report from Hybridan, titled Ready to shine: attractive valuation, high dividend yield and predictable profitability.

Our DCF model based on a WACC of 13.31% and a 3% terminal growth rate yields a valuation of 99.1p, an upside of 100%. We believe Northern Bear’s business performance and dividend payouts, coupled with better capital market visibility over time, will gradually drive up its share price.

Northern Bear is currently trading at 0.15x EV/sales, 2.58x EV/EBITDA adjusted and 6.26x P/E multiple based on our FY23 forecasts and the closing share price on 10 July 2023.

Notably, even at our DCF valuation of 99.1p, which is approximately double today’s share price, Northern Bear still would be trading at a discount to the most relevant comparable companies.

[Comparable companies cited in the report include Sureserve (SUR) at 7.2x EBITDA and 14.1x P/E; Water Intelligence (WATR) at 6.6x EBITDA and 15.6x P/E; and HomeServe acquisition recently completed at 17.7x EBITDA. Private equity is active in the specialist building services industry at c.13.9x EBITDA, citing the Lincoln facilities services index.]
Northern Bear share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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