Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[this_is_me] 27/4/2023 08:58

Beaumont-Dark has again increased his holding. He and Baryshnik will are the main shareholders.

[royaloak] 27/4/2023 08:57

Mr Nicholas Beaumont-Dark increased holding.

[aimwinner] 18/4/2023 15:29

New board here

[ed_derby] 05/4/2023 19:36

About time we hasd some good news ... or even or some news

A crumb of comfort when I've held onto the shares grom the heady days of 80p +

Pity i didnt buy anymore on the way down - i wonder if the directors did
;-/

[thirty fifty twenty] 05/4/2023 15:03

so its a year later and im writing to myself - lol!!
again good TU and good price action.
now there is 4p divi that they say will be progressive and paid equally H1 and H2 next year so that is great to have a 10% yield from here.

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
NTBR is in my portfolio

[this_is_me] 05/4/2023 13:08

The market cap. is only around £9 million so it only takes a few bored PIs to sell a few for the share price to fall and similarly a few buying will cause the price to shoot up. That does not happen with large companies where institutions are constantly trading some of their holdings.

[fillipe] 05/4/2023 09:51

Brilliant news as far as I'm concerned, having been a holder from the lowly days of 2010 and periods after that.
5p will be a 30% yield and brings us back to the total 5p div of 2017,followed by 4p in 2018.

Glad I held onto this one.

f

[tiswas] 05/4/2023 09:48

Aim


I have not spoken with management in years, I was even out completely until the last few months when it became apparent how cheap this was.

So no idea what his plans were other than we now have evidence he has not come up with any and lost a fair bit of cash on paper.

I can see a broker easily putting a 80p price target on these so maybe he will revert to good old fashioned ramping, albeit this is a real business making real profits!

[zangdook] 05/4/2023 09:39

"does there have to be any specific plan"

He's spent the last year and a half telling us that he's "engaging with the Board and management to discuss and review the Group's strategy" so yes, there does have to be a plan imho.

I agree about the bounce. Still well below fair value.

[rmillaree] 05/4/2023 09:33

"Is that really worth 8p on the share price (as I write)"

The reality is that the shareprice seemed to be factoring in an big air of uncertainty - so anytime to me share drops really really far without specific bad news - and the market is updated that things are broadly fine it should not be a surrpise ithat some of the prior price decreases are clawed back. So bounce makes complete sense to me. Whether bounce will stick or not is another matter.

ref Jeff plans - does there have to be any specific plan other than him seing long term value and potential presumably as us shareholders have seen in the past. Perhaps its as simple as him thinking that by having some influence he can gently guide company in positive direction or he feels the risk reward is right.

"Even 5p per year takes 14 years and as an ex-hedge fund manager he would not want to wait more than 14 months given a choice!"

Well its not just about the dividend - if the company can make £2 mill clean pa cash profit at 70p a share - thats only 7 years to add the equivalent of the market cap into then company coffers on top of whats already there.

[aimwinner] 05/4/2023 08:47

tiswas
If buying in was a mistake, and I agree given how little has changed, how will Jeff exit or get his money back?
Even 5p per year takes 14 years and as an ex-hedge fund manager he would not want to wait more than 14 months given a choice!
I don’t see what the end game is here, any thoughts

[value hound] 05/4/2023 08:39

Point taken tiswas, but buying certainly wasn't a mistake sub 40p (average 42p personally) as it was (and still is IMO) extreme value.

The greater worry was that they were going to try and take it private on the cheap.

[tiswas] 05/4/2023 08:28

The share price was 60-80p when they were making these sorts of numbers previously, although the latest proposed dividend is a bit higher. No reason it can not get back there, although I doubt it will be in a straight line.

I think the statement is an admission of "we dont know what we are doing or how we are going to change things" which ties in with my earlier thoughts that buying in was a mistake. If increased investor engagement extends to a broker note then we might go even higher. If the payout is 50% of earnings then I don't see why it won't be maintained.

[value hound] 05/4/2023 08:26

As per post 288, personally, I can't see how this is worth anything less than 70pps - and I wouldn't be selling then.

[zangdook] 05/4/2023 08:17

could have made twice that buying yesterday and selling today.

[this_is_me] 05/4/2023 08:09

A total of 5p for the dividend is a huge yield at current the share price.

[zangdook] 05/4/2023 08:09

It's well covered. They're just returning to their pre-covid pre-Baryshnik dividend policy.

[exbroker] 05/4/2023 08:07

Given that most of the businesses are cyclical how sustainable is the dividend and are they retaining enough cash for investment and any downturn?
This looks a short-term boost but will it have a long term cost?

[zangdook] 05/4/2023 08:07

Well done buying yesterday. I thought about it, but I was worried about staying in the doldrums forever, and anyway, I'm conserving spare cash for tomorrow's ISA. That's another thing - who waits 18 months and issues a positive update like that on the last day of the financial year?

[graham1ty] 05/4/2023 08:03

Is that really worth 8p on the share price (as I write)

[tiswas] 05/4/2023 08:03

I think they have bitten off more than they can chew but despite their best efforts we still have a business on a pe of <4 and perhaps making 10p+ eps on normal profits and now giving a 10% yield.

What's not to like?

And thanks to whoever tipped me off about the price being sub 40 yesterday!

[zangdook] 05/4/2023 07:57

If they're not giving us the dividend until they've had the results audited, and they're releasing unaudited results in July, presumably we won't get the dividend until August. Fair enough, it always used to be August, but given that we haven't had a dividend since 2019 I wouldn't have minded at least the special coming earlier.

[purplepelmets] 05/4/2023 07:51

disappointing

[graham1ty] 05/4/2023 07:48

More engagement ?? Any engagement would be good

[aimwinner] 05/4/2023 07:47

WTF is that it??
Its taken 18 months to tell us that they will be doing the same as before!!
zangdook I agree how could they do less engagement?
Why has Jeff still got a job?