Just Share Discussion Threads

[1jat] 05/12/2024 14:51

Touched 160 today…..a decade high.
The re-rating is progressing nicely….still some room for steadier gains over the next few years.

[18bt] 05/12/2024 09:58

Another broker increase and change of rec today:
Deutsche Bank raises Just Group to 'buy' (hold) - price target 170 (135) pence
That's 2 increases from Deutsche in a month
Suspect they must be ringing around the brokers pre-year end close period.

[1jat] 04/12/2024 16:14

I am expecting the dividend to grow by 15-20% for the next 5 years possibly with special dividends or buy backs for extras. They are adding about 30p of value to the business each year which will support future payouts for quite some time.

When the UK annuities market runs out of steam there will be consolidation and Just is likely to be put into a larger run off entity (eg Phoennix).

[spooky] 03/12/2024 15:13

Good volume today.

[grabster] 03/12/2024 15:10

150 easily passed

[18bt] 02/12/2024 09:39

Jefferies raises Just Group price target to 170 (165) pence - 'buy'

[18bt] 01/12/2024 08:19

This is from Bearbull in the IC last week. He holds Just in his income portfolio:

The one bright spot for the UK portion of the portfolio has been this year’s one home-grown addition – life insurer Just Group (JUST) – which is up 32 per cent since we bought it in early April.

To recap: Just was (and still is) benefiting from favourable actuarial shifts, rising in-force profits and strong (if capital-intensive) business growth. Demand from both pension trustees and individual savers for guaranteed retirement incomes is booming. And with each passing year since changing regulatory treatment of lifetime mortgages spooked markets, hitting Just’s shares and capital, investor confidence continues to grow.

This confidence might be of the ‘believe it when I see it’ variety. But Just isn’t short of operational momentum. Capital ratios and net asset values continue to build, while the drag from new business is moderate, or being managed with reinsurance. A freshly inked £1.8bn transaction to secure all benefits of G4S’s pension scheme – a record for Just – was both an example of the latter, and suggested the insurer has the balance sheet and commercial relationships to land big deals.

In April, I described the shares as a free hit on UK value, and so far the idea is working.

However, even though new business is boosting profits, the staggered release of capital, competing demands on cash and a low starting point for distributions mean it will take a few years before Just starts to deliver as an income stream. Although consensus dividend estimates look cautious against fast-rising profits, I’m not expecting much more than a 3 per cent yield against our purchase price in 2025.

[salver2] 26/11/2024 15:01

Testing 140 unfortunately!

[grabster] 25/11/2024 16:54

Testing that 150 (August) high tomorrow?

[1jat] 23/11/2024 12:59

Is the 700m retained from the G4S deal their largest transaction to date? If not it is certainly up there. It should ensure the sales targets for 2024 are met (and the internal adjusted operating profit target).
Insurance accounting is complex….this will add to the future value in the CSM uplifting future years profits but may not move the IFRS numbers much for 2024. The capital position is hopefully maintained allowing a 15-20% increase in the dividend.

The share price has stabilised around 140p, I would hope it is 150-160 at the full year results.

[18bt] 22/11/2024 16:01

£50k buy by CFO, presumably he might have been in a close period until announcement of £1,8bn deal

[18bt] 18/11/2024 09:50

Barclays raises Just Group price target to 170 (165) pence - 'overweight'

[18bt] 15/11/2024 09:47

Deutsche Bank Research raises Just Group price target to 135 (130) pence - 'hold'

[battyliveson] 14/11/2024 15:29

Must have had this built into forecast. Good win. I wonder if Brookfield will eventually take out Just group. Still seems way too cheap.

B

[1jat] 07/11/2024 15:54

Should improve the Solvency Ratio and encourage more new business.
IFRS17 will mean not much change in profit….but the value of inforce business should grow giving a higher TNAV.
Although the market is increasingly competitive

[18bt] 07/11/2024 12:06

15 yr gilt GRY now worse than the Liz Truss spike. Same old Labour.... Higher discount rates for liabilities and higher yielding assets to compete with GIFL.

[18bt] 09/9/2024 10:02

Barclays raises Just Group price target to 165 (146) pence - 'overweight'

[clive7878] 21/8/2024 14:03

Still motoring today - I would have thought that it would have had a breather today,
but not so. Does look like now that it is struggling to rise further 146.2p now could be boiling point.
Question is what will the share price do tomorrow and Friday - before and after ex-dividend.

2.386k trade went through late on at 151p
Fund manager or stake building ?

Looks like the market makers when keep rising the price, when there were more sells than buys for some days, were in fact trying to fill the big buy order of 2,386,394 today. So one can never be sure if one is doing the right thing buying or selling looking at the trades screen.

[cb7] 21/8/2024 07:15

Just to clarify it is xd tomorrow, thursday 22/8
The RSI is now very high at 82.5, so some fallback and consolidation likely.

[1jat] 20/8/2024 20:09

I think the share price will stop rising…until the FY results.
For me it has run far enough without more significant cash flowing from the operations and better capital generation. Management did note this was expected to improve (next year from memory).
Improved capital generation will assist with liquidity actions to retire higher cost debt support higher dividends and improve capital quality.
At the YE, there was 30-35% of SCR in the Transitional Measures for Technical Provisions (a Solvency II implementation measure to support capital levels - effectively a reduced solvency requirement), I looked by could not see the SCR (excl TMTP figure), it should be quite a few % lower given amortisation and the growth in the business.

[clive7878] 20/8/2024 11:29

Ex-divi Friday 0.7p
SP could be getting a little over the hill,
suspect it may have peaked for the time being?

[cjac39] 20/8/2024 06:54

sorry 1jat you are correct to point out i meant strain not margin. i havent looked into what they call margin and expect but you struggle to hide from OCG / cashflow. the point being, if your new business strain is so low, you must have hedged away almost all of the return to have such a low risk. standard annuities come with nb strain of say 8-10% which is roughly 5050 credit:longevity. to get the strain down to 1.5% means they almost totally will have hedged the longevity (i note they say they arent doing funded re) and somehow reduced the credit risk materially as well. of course this all comes with a cost in given up return. i struggle to believe that 9% margin will flow to just in the future but will check the wording of this. with this strain its almost a fee business not an insurance business.

[1jat] 19/8/2024 19:40

Questor says BUY.

Not always reliable, but may draw in new investors.

[clive7878] 17/8/2024 13:50

It looks to me that Just Group have over the last 12 months accumulated a lot of new business, and they have definitely turned the corner, and that the future is much brighter than it was 18 months ago - thus the rise in share price, together with new hope that the share price may well keep rising given time.

[eigthwonder] 17/8/2024 09:43

But it now does much better new biz and the returns on capital are higher thanks to the way they now structure their bids. The previous model of funding the whole thing themselves (and using shareholders to grow the business) was of no attraction to potential bidders, but the current CEO recognised that and has now built a modestly cash generative self-sustaining growth company. The old model was uninvestable, this one is backable, even though we might debate the valuation.