Just Share Discussion Threads

[cjac39] 26/8/2023 07:19

but thats a bit odd 1jat. you have an exemplar reporting standard with loads of great information that describes perfectly what you want including every bs item available in xls via the qrts and the sfcr and youre interested in some accounting mumbo jumbo that may or may not in the end behave a bit like the s2 numbers?!

you cannot write new business at a net own funds usage of sub 2% without reinsurance. look across at rothesay or any others. they are giving away most of the prize, hedging everything, spending loads on asset origination and admin, and for how much ocg?

honestly i just dont see the point and never have. shareholders would be best served by this being taken out or even better being put into runoff.

[clive7878] 25/8/2023 11:43

Recommended as a buy in todays Investors Chronicle and quite a comprehensive write up on Just Group too. Suggested taking a position for the longer term investment which could prove to be a worth while investment, although no real financial prediction figures given such as year end profits or pe ratios, - this lacking also applies to the write ups in the Smaller Companies section..
Maybe now 72p is the bounce back price but it could be a long haul to get back to the dizzy heights of 90p

[1jat] 25/8/2023 09:04

CJAC - yes teh SII capital position is key…..I am suggesting that IFRS17 will become an equally important measure as its profits profile more closely matches the capital movements…this may take time to be adopted.

at HY 2018 the SCR was 142%, today 204% so much improved and in a normal range for insurance companies.

I don’t see the use of reinsurance you do in their results….it is something they used to do (had to do) much more of.

They have reinvested most of their capital generation in new business….but is this not what they are supposed to do, if they can make a decent return (they say mid teens)?

[18bt] 25/8/2023 08:08

Tip in IC today

[tgaman] 25/8/2023 06:57

Clive, you seem confused as you keep mentioning them. The large trades at the end of the day are UTs (uncrossing trades) - they're neither a buy nor a sell.

[cjac39] 25/8/2023 06:38

maybe im missing something 1jat but insurers dont run by reference to accounting profits. Their ability to pay dividends is solely by reference to their solvency2 capital position and the level of own funds they have relative to this. In Justs case they made a pitiful level of own funds in the first half gambling everything on new business, and hedging away most of the forward profits. I would caution on looking at CSM or any other accounting metric as they are pretty much irrelevant aside from their impact on tax where they remain the main metric.

[amelio] 24/8/2023 23:11

Looking oversold and sitting on previous support at 72p, should be on for an aggressive bounce.

[clive7878] 24/8/2023 18:20

Look like a buy of 479k at the close - has this bottomed out now ?

Lets hope that tomorrow the share price don't follow the recent trend and would start off higher & then drop back & finish the day still lower than the start - after days of a constant drift.

[clive7878] 24/8/2023 13:10

The share price is like a falling knife at present, Are we going to see a 4th large sale at the close yet again.
Will there be a write up in the I.C. tomorrow to throw some light on the situation.

[1jat] 24/8/2023 13:02

All financials have been hit recently…..they are the first thought when a recession looks likely….
Markets fear significant credit defaults….insurers have a remarkable track record as they tend to invest in higher grade investments….while the value will fluctuate (and they will have experienced a huge fall over the current interest rate cycle) this is mirrored by reductions in future liabilities….

Just was a terrible investment for much of its history and that takes time to recover from.
The last 5 years has been a rebuild of the balance sheet….and there is now a boom in the bulk annuity market which Just will get its share….given this I expect they will achieve a doubling of the CSM in 5 years which will leave them sitting on much larger stock of unwinding profits……;that should lead to a rapidly increasing dividend…at some point this will become more attractive to investors….or management seek to sell the business for a final pay day.

[salver2] 24/8/2023 12:57

I can’t get my head around this one -it’s either the buying opportunity of the century or the company is not doing as wel as it appears

[clive7878] 21/8/2023 18:16

Until someone stops unloading the share price will continue to drift.
453k changed hands 20th August
246k on 21st August
564k on 23rd August
Lgen & av. are on a pe of 8 while Just Group is so say on a pe of 3

Doesn't make sense unless there is bad news in the pipeline. However the good news is that the drift in share price appears to be slowing down.

[clive7878] 21/8/2023 14:15

Riskvsrewwards -true - av. & lgen are both paying 8%.
Just Group seems to be drifting every day now. Far from the dizzy heights of 90p
Has the price now bottomed out is the $64 question
Shame the directors are filling their pockets unjustly at the expense of share holders.

[riskvsreward] 21/8/2023 10:08

A few points that keep me from pushing the buy button.

1. The bonus for the ceo and cfo seems to be excessive for the size of the company and the poor performance. What is worse,they seem to have sold most of their free options on exercise. Not showing commitment and confidence.
2. Compared to the high NAV and reported high earnings, the payout to the investor seems to be very mean, especially compared to the safer peers like aviva and lgen, and also compared to the generous bonus paid to the executives.

[salver2] 21/8/2023 08:51

Can’t even rise with a good write up

[harry the haddock] 20/8/2023 15:37

Good write up by Midas in the Fail on Sunday

[clive7878] 20/8/2023 12:17

I am amazed that Just has fallen after the good result, the i.C. saying that the forward pe ratio is 3.5,
and what the brokers target prices are. Tomorrow is another week and hopefully we will see a firming up of the share price.

[salver2] 20/8/2023 09:33

Share tip in this is money today !_ probably go down again- I wonder whether it’s fall has anything to do with bond yields?

[clive7878] 18/8/2023 19:23

The share price could be continuing to fall because it is hitting some investors stop loss price - a bit like a reverse of a snowball gathering more snow.
There was a 282k sell but also a 81k & 100k buy today.
64$ Question is - is the stock now undervalued & how long before it picks up again?

[salver2] 18/8/2023 12:03

I wish understood!

[clive7878] 18/8/2023 11:34

Thought they said the results and business was good,
but then the share price has been like a leaky bucket, going lower & lower. Really does defy logic.

[clive7878] 16/8/2023 19:55

salver2 - very true -
all positive news - share price should now be 90p in theory
but then we see the share price fall - again no logic.
it did recover during the day a bit though.
Where will we see the share price at Christmas though - still at 75 - 85p. Now under 80p.

[salver2] 16/8/2023 12:56

There is clearly something about this share which is clearly not apparent-the better the results the worse the share price

[clive7878] 15/8/2023 19:58

Maybe the IC will write Just up in the next issue and state that they are a buy,
but even that may not move the share price upwards. It is a waiting game for the share price to move up, as management do appear to be doing a good job.

It was predicted that results would be an improvement on last years, and it has materialised.
I believe those who still hold Just Group - and that includes me - will be rewarded in due course.

I am down now to 2 stocks - Just Group and AA4 (14% dividend) - both of which i have strong hopes in.
For another I have sold out also with good continued prospects - but one needs to get out at the right time in the future is CNA.

[1jat] 15/8/2023 09:10

I was pleased to see the new business profit in line with the forecast by LGEN of 8-9%.
LGEN seemed to be towards the bottom of this range and JUST was bang in the middle..

Just is a pure play on the annuity market (retail and DB derisking) as such it should be clear this is where there will be a lot of action in the next 5 years….Just expects to grow 15% pa and double its future profits value over that time…has to be a good story for long term investors or those with capital wanting to put it to good use.

I suspect analysts will be working on LGEN today and Aviva tomorrow and little Just will not get much focus until later in the week.

It is holiday time so not much doing anyway…..the more interesting time is early Sept when the C-suite is back from holiday and wants something to announce before the year end….(that could just be more sales for Just from DB owners wanting out now).