Just Share Discussion Threads

[lurker6] 11/1/2025 11:12

I was under the impression that higher yields reduce the value of a schemes liabilities and increase the affordability of a buyout.

Pension schemes that haven’t been bought out may not be fully funded, so an increase in bond yields will lead to a net benefit to their funding position. Wouldn’t it therefore lead to increased demand for DB?

[1jat] 09/1/2025 13:29

The other effect of higher interest rates is that schemes may find themselves even better fund than they were…..which may make more of them consider running on rather than transferring liabilities to an insurance company. If you can earn 5% risk free rather than buy out a deferred annuitant with a capped 2.5% increase pa why would you not hold on?

I suspect that after several years of steadily increasing participation we are going to see some abandoning the market and some consolidation.

[18bt] 09/1/2025 10:39

Peel Hunt cuts Just Group to 'add' (buy) - price target 170 pence

I wonder whether they have done the New Year broker call around or whether this is IM New Year revised positioning following last year's outperformance.

[1jat] 09/1/2025 09:58

Down 10% in a couple of days, more diversified competitors (LGEN / MNG / PHNX) are down about 5%.
This does seem to be linked with the recent treasury auction, yields going remorsely high on UK Govt debt which is sinking the UK Fiscal position. Talk of more tax rises to pay more interest is not helping.

Does that mean much for Just? Interest rates being higher are a good thing as liabilities are discounted but this is countered by market losses on the value of existing bonds - but that passes through the CSM and is amortised over 20-30 years so there should not be much effect on the solvency position although TNAV will be down. As it is trading at such a discount to TNAV this is not a short term issue.

My view is - buy more if it falls into the 130s. In the past we have been provided a sales update at the end of January that sets the tone for the results. Sales for 2024 appear to have been strong including the 1.8bn deal they will look good. I have no reason to doubt the FY results will be equally good.

[roguetraderuk] 09/1/2025 09:19

gilt sell off.

[poppabear4u] 09/1/2025 09:14

Does anyone have any insight into the last few days' performance?

[grabster] 19/12/2024 14:51

Broken clear again? Share price is now more than 100% up on a year ago and still looking strong.

[1jat] 05/12/2024 14:51

Touched 160 today…..a decade high.
The re-rating is progressing nicely….still some room for steadier gains over the next few years.

[18bt] 05/12/2024 09:58

Another broker increase and change of rec today:
Deutsche Bank raises Just Group to 'buy' (hold) - price target 170 (135) pence
That's 2 increases from Deutsche in a month
Suspect they must be ringing around the brokers pre-year end close period.

[1jat] 04/12/2024 16:14

I am expecting the dividend to grow by 15-20% for the next 5 years possibly with special dividends or buy backs for extras. They are adding about 30p of value to the business each year which will support future payouts for quite some time.

When the UK annuities market runs out of steam there will be consolidation and Just is likely to be put into a larger run off entity (eg Phoennix).

[spooky] 03/12/2024 15:13

Good volume today.

[grabster] 03/12/2024 15:10

150 easily passed

[18bt] 02/12/2024 09:39

Jefferies raises Just Group price target to 170 (165) pence - 'buy'

[18bt] 01/12/2024 08:19

This is from Bearbull in the IC last week. He holds Just in his income portfolio:

The one bright spot for the UK portion of the portfolio has been this year’s one home-grown addition – life insurer Just Group (JUST) – which is up 32 per cent since we bought it in early April.

To recap: Just was (and still is) benefiting from favourable actuarial shifts, rising in-force profits and strong (if capital-intensive) business growth. Demand from both pension trustees and individual savers for guaranteed retirement incomes is booming. And with each passing year since changing regulatory treatment of lifetime mortgages spooked markets, hitting Just’s shares and capital, investor confidence continues to grow.

This confidence might be of the ‘believe it when I see it’ variety. But Just isn’t short of operational momentum. Capital ratios and net asset values continue to build, while the drag from new business is moderate, or being managed with reinsurance. A freshly inked £1.8bn transaction to secure all benefits of G4S’s pension scheme – a record for Just – was both an example of the latter, and suggested the insurer has the balance sheet and commercial relationships to land big deals.

In April, I described the shares as a free hit on UK value, and so far the idea is working.

However, even though new business is boosting profits, the staggered release of capital, competing demands on cash and a low starting point for distributions mean it will take a few years before Just starts to deliver as an income stream. Although consensus dividend estimates look cautious against fast-rising profits, I’m not expecting much more than a 3 per cent yield against our purchase price in 2025.

[salver2] 26/11/2024 15:01

Testing 140 unfortunately!

[grabster] 25/11/2024 16:54

Testing that 150 (August) high tomorrow?

[1jat] 23/11/2024 12:59

Is the 700m retained from the G4S deal their largest transaction to date? If not it is certainly up there. It should ensure the sales targets for 2024 are met (and the internal adjusted operating profit target).
Insurance accounting is complex….this will add to the future value in the CSM uplifting future years profits but may not move the IFRS numbers much for 2024. The capital position is hopefully maintained allowing a 15-20% increase in the dividend.

The share price has stabilised around 140p, I would hope it is 150-160 at the full year results.

[18bt] 22/11/2024 16:01

£50k buy by CFO, presumably he might have been in a close period until announcement of £1,8bn deal

[18bt] 18/11/2024 09:50

Barclays raises Just Group price target to 170 (165) pence - 'overweight'

[18bt] 15/11/2024 09:47

Deutsche Bank Research raises Just Group price target to 135 (130) pence - 'hold'

[battyliveson] 14/11/2024 15:29

Must have had this built into forecast. Good win. I wonder if Brookfield will eventually take out Just group. Still seems way too cheap.

B

[1jat] 07/11/2024 15:54

Should improve the Solvency Ratio and encourage more new business.
IFRS17 will mean not much change in profit….but the value of inforce business should grow giving a higher TNAV.
Although the market is increasingly competitive

[18bt] 07/11/2024 12:06

15 yr gilt GRY now worse than the Liz Truss spike. Same old Labour.... Higher discount rates for liabilities and higher yielding assets to compete with GIFL.

[18bt] 09/9/2024 10:02

Barclays raises Just Group price target to 165 (146) pence - 'overweight'

[clive7878] 21/8/2024 14:03

Still motoring today - I would have thought that it would have had a breather today,
but not so. Does look like now that it is struggling to rise further 146.2p now could be boiling point.
Question is what will the share price do tomorrow and Friday - before and after ex-dividend.

2.386k trade went through late on at 151p
Fund manager or stake building ?

Looks like the market makers when keep rising the price, when there were more sells than buys for some days, were in fact trying to fill the big buy order of 2,386,394 today. So one can never be sure if one is doing the right thing buying or selling looking at the trades screen.