Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Just Group Plc LSE:JUST London Ordinary Share GB00BCRX1J15 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 92.10 92.05 92.25 - 0.00 01:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Life Insurance 4,645.2 236.7 16.1 5.7 957

Just Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1576 to 1599 of 1600 messages
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Hi, First post, so hope OK to ask a question as I'm hoping someone might be able to help me understand Just's asset value.... I just read their half year presentation available at hxxps://www.justgroupplc.co.uk/investors/results-and-presentations At bottom of slide 6 it refers to a net asset value of nearly £2 per share alongside "Future Cash Flows" of £3.6Bn. My question is simply, are these the same money (i.e. is the nav just the discounted NPV of £3.6Bn?) or is the company really backed by almost £2 per share of assets PLUS future flows of over £3 per share...? Even allowing for long timescale to release future income the current share price would seem a clear bargain for any larger insurer - or even a Private Equity vehicle (who could bid at, say, a 70% premium to current share price, and still come out with a chunky profit by just selling on the book of loans to larger insurers...?
This from PIC this morning "After a slow start to the year, the Pension Risk Transfer market is once again very busy". Mirrors what JUST said at their interims.
Thanks Codger - useful gloss on where the capital might be allocated and I agree about IO mortgage replacements; there's a lot coming up which can' be repaid.
Thanks 18BT, a bit more detail about the transaction from Just's perspective is here: hTTps://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2021/09/02/just-sells-equity-release-portfolio-to-phoenix-for-300m/
I missed this announcement from Phoenix, which appeared last week: hTTps://www.thephoenixgroup.com/newsroom/news/phoenix-group-acquires-ps300m-equity-release-portfolio Phoenix didn't RNS this, so there is a good chance most of the market did as well
I don't understand the point of tendering. Why not just let them run to the call rather than paying the required premium to incentivise tender acceptance?
Not quite sure what the tender offer of old notes and issue of new notes does to the running cost. But presumably should reduce it as they are redeeming at a premium. The old notes had a coupon of 9.375% up to the call date in 2024. At a premium of 117%, that is equivalent to a running coupon of 8.01% - so that's the benchmark of the new notes - but last time the issue costs were £6m, so that needs to be taken into account too. £28.1m of annual interest on the old notes, so this might make a meaningful difference as well as telling us ow far JUST has come in regaining the confidence of the debt markets.
Interesting report from Barnett Waddingham on COVID and the effect on mortality/longevity assumptions. About DB pensions but readacross to JUST on the assumption side as well as the DB de-risking hTTps://www.barnett-waddingham.co.uk/comment-insight/research/ftse350-pensions-covid-19-impact-on-life-expectancy/
As I said back in March - no dividend because they can’t afford it. This is heavily geared with temporary capital in the form of transitional relief. Own Funds reduction over the half year. IFRS loss. More debt capital (yes, I am happy to ignore the conversion feature) being raised. So where is the double digit return? I don’t see it except in an irrationally high share price. Oh - except that the share price has fallen 7% today.
From the IC: Just Group (JUST) results are never entirely straightforward and, at least on a reported level, seemed to show little progress. However, a headline loss was due to reverses on interest hedges as credit rates tightened during the half. Dig further into the figures, and you’ll find the retirement product specialist generated £25m in organic capital (up from £3m in the first half of 2020) and is now well ahead of its target to double growth of this key measure by 2022, so ensuring the underlying stability of its Solvency II ratio. The indirect effect of large cohorts of retiring baby boomers is that companies, with an estimated £2 trillion of total defined benefit (DB) pension liabilities on their balance sheets, are starting to move these risks into the insurance market. Just is a clear beneficiary of this trend as its key DB segment recorded a 20 per cent rise in gross premiums written to £554m, while the popularity of guaranteed income for life products ensured a 27 per cent rise in premiums to £330m. But chief executive David Richardson has ruled out the return of dividends: “Our larger shareholders have said they are satisfied with the mid-teens return-on-capital we are generating at the moment.” He added that Just has built a niche in medically underwritten customers and was ahead of the rest of the market in this specialisation. Despite these solid results, Just trades on six times’ Panmure Gordon’s earnings forecast for 2022. With evidence that cost control and capital generation are both ahead of expectations and, with the shares still trading at a big discount to net assets, there is room for growth. Buy.
Some interesting things in the webcast now on the investor site: - Expecting at least to match H2 202's c£1bn DB de-risking - Moving into participating in pension buyouts - Likely to move more into the £250-£1bn de-risking segment where currently they only have a 2% mkt share, all whilst not taking on too much capital strain - big emphasis on long term returns: £17m of new business strain, has a 3.5 year payback and leads to £110m of cashflow return over next 35 years - Now targeting 20% LTM backing of new business - down from 25% target and close to 35% at it's worst under Rodney Cook
Well operating profits - which is what matters - are up. Good results and shares fall = opportunity had a top up.
If the PRA forced conversion the trigger point is an SCR of 75%…..ie already bust…so there is little to fear from a conditional conversion.
Decent set of results, but disappointing they haven't yet concluded the £475m ERM sale - but they seem confident. Need to look carefully at the EGM they are calling to issued further Tier 1 bonds with potential conversion. They are being hampered by the high levels of debt cost, but if the PRA forced conversion, it's a huge dilution. Anyway, they have outperformed my L&G-reduced expectations on DB de-risking, so topline growth and capital generation all good.
Shares have had a nice run up ahead of results….but good numbers don’t mean much at the moment it seems to be all about sentiment. Qlt good numbers but shares off 5% HL good growth numbers, shares down 11%. I really have no idea which way Just will go tomorrow. My guess is there will be good capital numbers and positive statements about the strength of the company and opportunities leading to an up day. However we suspect sales have been poor (deliberately so) so the market may take them down reversing recent gains. Overall, I think undervalued in the long run, so will hold on for 150+.
This article makes the point how few such announcements Just has made this year for these DB buy ins..... hxxps://www.professionalpensions.com/news/4035663/insures-gbp3m-brent-group-pension-liabilities
Interestingly, L&G did though say that demand for GIFL (Annuities) was growing and that they are targeting that space as DC pensions grow.
Or sales are not that good…..Aviva and LG have both commented on the slow pension risk transfer / DB transfer market. They may want to focus on capital and its generation…..LG continue to release annuity liabilities due to pandemic impact on longevity risk……..Just will be experiencing the same forces. Looking for an improved capital position, perhaps a small dividend (maybe just flag resumption for the full year will be enough)
It is unusual for them not to have made such an update - I'm going to wildly speculate perhaps theres some sort of corporate activity going on which is limiting disclosures... No evidence at all other than they have said they are open to all options and I've long expected they will be taken out eventually....
There is no requirement for a trading update, unless results are out of line with expectations. Sales are perhaps not the most important financial metric for a company like just where specific underwriting risks can drive changes in capital requirement more than a new deal. The short term share price is driven by capital generation and he overall capital position, so lower sales may be a good thing to improve the capital position. Hoping for the improvement to recommence.
Interims are scheduled for 12/8. Disappointed that we haven’t had a trading update this year since the finals. PIs are being kept in the dark.
Being hurt by falling bond yields…. Must be too much stimulus QE money inflation should weaken bond prices?
Yes longevity stats going forwards are surely set to be helpful here whether from deaths caused by COVID or deaths caused by NHS waiting lists (themselves caused by COVID). recovering strongly now ..
Possibly yes, but there could be an excess of 1-5 year cancer deaths in 2024-25. Luckily the actuaries do have 300+ years of decent mortality data.
Chat Pages: 64  63  62  61  60  59  58  57  56  55  54  53  Older
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