Just Share Discussion Threads

[1jat] 11/7/2023 08:04

The Just IFRS17 announcement today takes a very different approach to LGEN…..they basically try to ignore it by creating a definition of operating profit that reverses the effect.

The actual IFRS results are going to be much lower because the new business profit (which now goes to the CSM) is significantly more than the CSM unwind (-260m +60m).

ANyway - just will be trading c 50% of equity + CSM which seems too low.

[clive7878] 10/7/2023 15:14

So no movement upwards on share price when results are announced next month ??
It has been struggling of late.

[1jat] 09/7/2023 13:28

For those interested, read the LGEN IFRS17 update from earlier this week. It sets out what the opening balance sheet will look like and also the comparators for 2022.
Just as a pure annuity writer, the effects will be most extreme as they dont have the moderation of other business lines. 2023 profits will be lower than 22, but capital generation may be similar / ahead based on volume increases.
FWIW i suspect we will see annuity business valued as a % of the related Contractual Service Margin which is a proxy for future profits. Whether this is 65% or 120% is unpredictable…..if history of Embedded Value reporting is anything to go by, it will be 70-80%.

[clive7878] 06/7/2023 20:40

Good to hear some positive news with the share price of late drifting, on what appears to be a cheap stock.
A good time to top up ??

[18bt] 06/7/2023 08:50

TBF, 15% has been their medium term growth objective for a couple of years, but I agree reiterating it should mean the interims (15/8) should be OK.

[salver2] 06/7/2023 08:31

Announced at least 15 percent profit growth and still on a 3 Pe -Uk stock market nothing short of a basket case!

[18bt] 06/7/2023 07:41

CFO succession well handled - looks a strong candidate

[18bt] 30/6/2023 12:32

And another small one on linkedin: "We are pleased to have completed a £11 million full scheme buy-in for The American Optical UK Pension Scheme. "

[clive7878] 27/6/2023 22:00

18BT - good spot.
Broker's forecast a future share price for JUST of up to 138 / 145p
One hope is the buy / sell ratio today,
One lesser hope is the drift in share price.
.

[18bt] 27/6/2023 16:39

And another one:

[1jat] 25/6/2023 20:38

.it will be sitting on large mark to market losses on its bond portfolio - these now go through the contract service margin and amortised over 30-40 years and will roughly be matched by a fall in liabilities. Both effects are caused by rising interest rates.
The capital ratio will be relatively unchanged, but net asset value will be down again…

There have not been significant corporate defaults but the market will be fearing there will be…..and avoiding any banks that go belly up will be important.

The whole point of the new accounting standard is to make insurance results less volatile and more comparable year on year and between companies. The CSM should be a big number for all insurer as it represents the future profits of its book.

[salver2] 23/6/2023 17:02

The Just share price has nothing to do with fundamentals (I hope) it is relatively illiquid and at the first sign of panic gets sold off along with the banks and all the other insurers

[clive7878] 05/6/2023 22:44

Would have thought JUST share price would have held up better - 14% drop now.
What fundamentals have changed since the share price of 90p to now 77p ?
I'm still holding in here - at least for now.

Could be news on interims results around 9th August 2023- 7 weeks away. .

[clive7878] 03/6/2023 14:40

I do have faith in Just Group, but would like to see some concrete evidence of things going well which is needed to shift the share price forward, which could well happen this year.

[18bt] 02/6/2023 15:57

Following out from the ABI:"Our annuities data collection revealed that sales of annuities in the first quarter of this year rose by 22%, with £1.2 billion spent and 64% of people switching provider." Should be positive for JUST.

[clive7878] 01/6/2023 21:59

Its had a bad run of late - could do with some trading update,
but I fear that this may be some weeks ahead. If I remember
it could be in August.

[cjac39] 24/5/2023 22:06

its simples with just. analysis all you like but its a basket case on its own. the pra hate it and it just needs (no pun intended) taking out. some pe shop will do this at 120/130 so ok invest for that but ow i wouldn't waste time on over analysing this co. its capital constrained, its models are stretched, its biz plan is somewhat floored, and it will be safe harboured into somewhere sensible. sadly part of the plan will be hundreds of job losses but thats a crazy project anyway.

[clive7878] 24/5/2023 21:48

A bad day at the office today, with market slipping overall.
Picked up some Aviva today, after the weakness, with a near 8% yield.
Hoping for the future. Just is still my biggest holding though.

[1jat] 24/5/2023 19:58

The scale of the DB derisking market is extraordinary.
LGEN has just announced a £2.7bn deal
And Aviva says it has written £2.4bn YTD

Just cannot compete at the larger end because of the capital requirements and capability to take on these size of deals……it does hoover up a good share of the smaller schemes but it has to write a lot of contracts relative to the big boys.

[18bt] 24/5/2023 07:46

And another one posted on linkedin:
The Team at Just is proud to have completed a full buy-in of the Timpsons Group Pension Scheme, securing the benefits of 369 pensioners and 694 deferred members. Thanks to Western Pension Solutions and K3 Advisory for their collaboration in securing this transaction.

EDIT: Professional Pensions reported this as a £100m transaction

[clive7878] 20/5/2023 12:22

1jat - it is the low prospective pe and write up in the IC that attracts me, but if the company can substantiate the optimism then the share price should move, but it has been rocky in the past. Things should be clearly on the next set of results. The divi is encouraging as starters.

Am into Tescos and Centrica fairly solid but not too much more mileage in them now. Aviva is very solid with a divi of 8%, but has not broke out of the range 380 - 460 over the last 2 years. IC have recommended smaller stocks but one needs the full story, not just the pros.

[1jat] 19/5/2023 20:45

Clive - hope you are right….my break even is slightly above 100p and I have been underwater for too long despite some buys at 50/80 in the not too recent past to average the cost down

[clive7878] 19/5/2023 19:36

1jat - I am hoping that JUST will break out of its current range and go above 110p.
Going on the IC the write up was - it would appear - very positive, I am quite hopefully upon results the share price could go above 100p.
But then in saying that so were a few write ups about smaller companies very positive,
although there was no real break out afterwards, and if one read into them more they forgot to mention some negatives.
Some of the major stocks after their rise have the risk of coming off the boil I notice at present, so few recovery stocks left. Before covid Tesco were 300 fell to 180, now back to 260, Next and ABF have done the same, but more mileage is unlikely to happen.

[charlie] 19/5/2023 13:43

Equity release is imo a much smaller risk economically than the SII balance sheet suggests.

The EVT is extremely conservative. A sensible valuation a portfolio of NNEGs would be very roughly half that inherent in the SII balance sheet.

[1jat] 19/5/2023 12:43

Clive…..
you dont say which Christmas…..
It has not been at 120 for 5 years and peaked at just under 110 in Feb 19 and again in Apr 20…..except for those false peaks it has been well under 100p.
This period has been one of consolidation and rebuilding the business to be less reliant on equity release and improving its capital position.
Sales should go well for the next few years as the great DB transfer from scheme trustees to insurers takes place. Just looks set to capture a good share at the low-middle value transactions as with the BUT deal earlier this week.
Whether this business is profitable / whether Just has enough capital for the inevitable bumpy road remains to be seen…..
The BPA sector is becoming more competitive….maybe some consolidation will happen….but I would not be surprised to see Just still here in 5 years, paying a dividend of 8p and a share price of 100.