Just Share Discussion Threads

[1jat] 15/8/2023 08:10

I was pleased to see the new business profit in line with the forecast by LGEN of 8-9%.
LGEN seemed to be towards the bottom of this range and JUST was bang in the middle..

Just is a pure play on the annuity market (retail and DB derisking) as such it should be clear this is where there will be a lot of action in the next 5 years….Just expects to grow 15% pa and double its future profits value over that time…has to be a good story for long term investors or those with capital wanting to put it to good use.

I suspect analysts will be working on LGEN today and Aviva tomorrow and little Just will not get much focus until later in the week.

It is holiday time so not much doing anyway…..the more interesting time is early Sept when the C-suite is back from holiday and wants something to announce before the year end….(that could just be more sales for Just from DB owners wanting out now).

[salver2] 15/8/2023 07:28

And yet the shares are down - the uk stock market is breathtakingly awful!

[18bt] 15/8/2023 07:28

Interesting slide in presentation (17) showing that CSM will release to profits at c6% per annum i.e. over 16.7 years. At 30/6/23, CSM balance is £1.74bn, so release is c£104m. But slide 30, shows the CSM doubling over 5 years (15% growth). That’s a lot of capital (and dividenable all things being equal) in 5 years time.

EDIT to be clear the CSM is shown net of tax in the balance sheet. Above are pre-tax numbers.

[18bt] 15/8/2023 06:53

Can see very little not to like about these results. Particularly like that the return on equity is now 13% and the confidence about the remainder of this year and 2024, by which point the back book profits and unwinding of the new CMS will really begin to impact. I can see at least 5 years of 15% dividend growth. Surely these should re-rate , but it is August, so it may take a few months.

[1jat] 15/8/2023 06:25

Positively salvervating.

[salver2] 15/8/2023 06:07

These look like fabulous results making a mockery of the lowly share price-let’s see how the market takes it though

[salver2] 14/8/2023 15:12

The share price is unbelievably volatile-the buisness seems grossly undervalued but no one seems to care

[queenbreguet] 14/8/2023 14:58

Any views on intrims tomorrow??

[clive7878] 07/8/2023 19:20

.FINANCIAL CALENDAR DATE
Interim results for the six months 15 August 2023
ended 30 June 2023

We need some good news - share price has been bumming along now for some time.
Can't at present seem to break out above the 87p mark and appears very volatile
With the broker's target price and business appear to be picking up
I did hope that we were in for a re-rating, but the price today has been still not strong.

[1jat] 19/7/2023 17:14

HY results are important for news of margin…..sales are apparently easy to come by…..sales at good margins are what is more important…..the retail annuity business is likely to be less competitive than the BPA business…..and lets see if they have retained the business on the balance sheet and not put too much into reinsurance.

[18bt] 19/7/2023 15:58

Very high volume over the past 2 days: 2.8m yesterday, 1.8m today compared to typical 1m. Interesting to see whether that continues as brokers' notes come out.

[baddeal] 18/7/2023 11:31

Good rns, seems to me there is a lot to be reflected in the share price Hopefully one day!

[18bt] 18/7/2023 08:27

The trouble is that on fundamentals the stock has been cheap since 2020. But the share price movement in the last month has taken the price through the 200 day MA. Hope that is a further positive

[clive7878] 18/7/2023 08:17

Sounds very good for the future and for the share price -
Was mentioned in the IC last week.
Could be a very favourable write up in this week to.
On fundamentals the stock is cheap,
and now we are having positive news to,
which does not appear to be in the share price

[1jat] 18/7/2023 07:24

18BT - yes this story needs the data about how much value is added to the CSM by these record sales..
CSM releases at about 6% pa……I anticipate ‘loss making’ at a headline level but significant value added to CSM….which should be the driver of share price from now on.

[18bt] 18/7/2023 07:20

Somewhat better on DB de-risking sales than I expected. Little said about margins and capital so hoping for even better news at the interims.

[1jat] 17/7/2023 20:04

Another buy in deal of £90m
You would hope there is a higher margin in smaller value deals….otherwise the work is similar to a Lgen deal that is 20x the size.

[clive7878] 13/7/2023 10:17

That does sound very promising for the future share price.
I have hung in there despite the fall in share price.
I am also optimistic about the future.
Be interesting to see the write up in the IC maybe this weekend.

[1jat] 11/7/2023 19:04

There is a positive FT LEX article….maybe borrowed from its IC affiliate.
It is a premium subscription item so I cant read it, but what I can see sounds upbeat.

Follows a “long read” on FT which is publicly accessible that sets out the short term opportunity with £600bn expected to transfer to insurers in the next decade.
UU has a£1.8bn deal with LGEN. BP is apparently seeking bids for its £20bn scheme but that may be split into several tranches to make it digiestible to insurers.

Seems like Just will be able to get what it needs from the market…be that a lot of smaller deals with a few mid sized deals rather than a big deal with a reinsurer partner. No wonder management is confident in meeting its growth targets in the next 5 years….which implies a doubling of the CSM which would mean NAV of £3.50…and with a track record of growth I would expect the share price to get closer to £2.50
Worth holding….

[clive7878] 11/7/2023 17:34

Will be recommended as a buy in the IC this week -
Sure to be but will it make a difference in share price
There is a huge gap between the current share price to
the Brokers target share price, but maybe the gap will close.

[salver2] 11/7/2023 10:44

You’re correct cb7 -although how it’s below 80 pence a share demonstrates the unloved nature of the Uk market

[cb7] 11/7/2023 10:20

Their reiteration to target 15% growth in underlying operating profits plus greater than 10% RoE, with no change to strategy, growth, dividends etc holds more sway than a brokers target.

[18bt] 11/7/2023 09:51

The reason for the upwards movement?
*RBC raises Just Group price target to 165 (160) pence - 'outperform'