Just Share Discussion Threads

[1jat] 08/12/2023 17:47

Only a couple of weeks ago £10bn was announced across three deals.
I would be surprised if Just did not beat its H1 sales volume.

PRA has said today it may remove a test from the TMTP calculation which may save give some companies more capital relief through TMTP….not going to affect 2023 results at it needs approval but something for them to talk about if it is beneficial.

[eigthwonder] 08/12/2023 16:49

it's a seasonal thing - for reasons which aren't totally clear pension fund trustees have a habit of mulling over buy outs for much of the year and press the final button in Q4 - been the way for years

[clive7878] 08/12/2023 14:07

They seem to have taken on more business since the second half of trading, if they know what they are doing, after a good first half the second half could be as good if not better, and they are on quite a low pe ratio. That is my way of thinking. There are I must admit -there are ifs and buts though.

[1jat] 07/12/2023 17:37

Clive - we will only know what they guess the profits will be….I for one will be long gone before we know for sure.

[clive7878] 07/12/2023 09:20

Just seem to be making a number of deals over the last 12 months,
lets hope they all return a good profit. Believe January we will know more.
Await news on actual profits for the year.

[1jat] 06/12/2023 08:53

This CMI data is interesting…..the working age group will include many who retired with ill health….which is a target market for Just and its Guaranteeed Income For Life products that are medically underwritten….but should be seeing excess mortality too…we will have to see what releases there are this year…actuaries are notoriously prudent when it comes to reserves….

It will have some effect on DB business, but that will be less predictable as they are not medically underwritten.

[18bt] 05/12/2023 16:51

Announced today:

Hyde Housing Scheme agrees £60m buy-in with Just Group

[18bt] 04/12/2023 11:20

Good for annuity insurers, but bad for their annuitants, albeit that worst effects in working age population:
CMI says 'persistent excess mortality' is continuing
Post-pandemic mortality continues to be in excess for the working age population, according to OHID paper

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has said excess mortality is continuing long after the pandemic, in a commentary published in the Lancet Regional Health Journal.

The commentary - which includes analysis from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID) and the CMI - found excess deaths from all causes were greatest among the 50 to 64 age group between June 2022 and 2023.

The CMI analysis found the largest relative excess deaths across 2022 were for working age populations (20 to 44 years and 45 to 64 years), compared to the "acute phase of the pandemic" when the greatest number of excess deaths was among older adults.

Analysis from the OHID found from 2022 to 2023, deaths from cardiovascular diseases were 33% higher for those aged 50 to 64, while diabetes-related deaths were 35% higher, and deaths from acute respiratory diseases were 43% higher.

Across the same period, the OHID analysis found deaths among 50 to 64 year olds were 15% higher than expected, while for 25 to 49 and those aged under 25 years old excess deaths were 11% higher, and 9% higher for those aged over 65.

However, the commentary noted the analysis should be interpreted with caution due to the "greater than usual delay in registration of deaths in the latter part of 2022".

The commentary said reasons for excess deaths could include "direct effects of Covid-19 infection", pressure on NHS services and "disruption to chronic disease detection and management".

CMI deputy chair Stuart McDonald said: "We continue to see persistent excess mortality, particularly for the working age population, years after the start of the coronavirus pandemic. This is an important and challenging issue for public health as well as for actuaries and others considering the financial consequences.

"The timely and granular OHID analysis is helpful in providing greater understanding of the reasons for recent excess mortality, and we look forward to working with them and the ONS in the future."

[salver2] 28/11/2023 16:55

Good share purchase today of nearly 100 k

[clive7878] 28/11/2023 14:49

Hopefully in January Just share price may firm up, if the first half profits continue through to the second half. Lets wait and see. Although the current dividend is far short of Aviva's and Just Group may only raise it marginally, the prospective profit and pe ration could look encouraging to re-rate the share price. So here is hoping.

[18bt] 27/11/2023 14:08

Barclays raises Just Group price target to 136 (125) pence - 'overweight'

[clive7878] 21/11/2023 22:34

Up to 87p first thing today, finished at 82.4p - disappointing

[1jat] 19/11/2023 09:31

I wonder what management will have to say about the latest PRA CP24/23 paper on managing funded reinsurance…..
PRA wants risk to be under control of the UK insurance industry and not exposed to weaker capital regimes elsewhere.
This could either mean lower growth for cos or the need to retain more risk and use capital for this….that is not necessarily bad if that capital is rewarded with a good ROC…however it may defer cash flows to shareholders which is possibly an issue.

[cjac39] 17/11/2023 20:43

Just are knackered with running off tmtp so don’t hold your breath. They can’t increase divi much as they don’t earn much capital as they’ve hedged everything. Jan tomorrow

[clive7878] 17/11/2023 20:39

if second half profits are good, I see no reason why the dividend should not increase, it is quite nominal at present - as if you take Aviva they are paying a far better percent

Did a previous poster think that management were paying themselves more than fairly at present.

[lurker6] 16/11/2023 09:38

For what reason would you expect the dividend to increase and why to 6p within 5 years?

Not at all disagreeing with you - just curious as to your thought process.

[1jat] 14/11/2023 19:00

It does behave oddly, but then maybe we need to think of Just as the sum of its future dividend stream.
It currently pays 3p I would expect it to double to 6p within 5 years then growth may flatten and then it might start running off which will release further capital, so maybe return 10p pa for a further 20 years.
What is that worth? Well with interest rates higher than they have been for a while that might be depressing the present value, the 3m chart looks like it is going with changes in expectations of inflation and interest rates which seems to have peaked…maybe we will see the share price rally when interest rates are falling again in a year’s time.
If that is the case, then now would be an opportune time for a raider….but this board has expected a consolidation for many years…
Buy at 70p has been a good trade historically and sell in mid 80s. Maybe it will break out from its range…but I am not holding my breath.

[salver2] 13/11/2023 17:08

It’s such a weird share this - by far the weirdest that I hold it announced great results a few months back and everything seemed positive and unbelievably undervalued and then collapsed 20 percent and now back up 20 percent - strange

[1jat] 13/11/2023 15:42

Don’t forget PHNX…..it has announced it has £500m of extra cash generation this year following the combining of four insurance funds…..
It was said to be interested a few years ago….maybe now affordable in a cash + shares deal to expand the PHNX BPA proposition.

[1jat] 13/11/2023 14:57

No indication of news, but another 3% rise is very welcome…most likely helped today by JPM being quite positive about prospects of Just having surplus capital soon and hence options for increasing the dividend (almost a certainly given they are targetting 15% growth for the next few years)….possibly additional returns on capital/debt reduction….or maybe just more investment in the business…

who knows what the Board will decide to do…but is seems clear they may have more funds to allocate.

[techno20] 13/11/2023 14:48

News on its way?

[clive7878] 10/11/2023 12:28

Share price spiked up yesterday, 77.6 to 81.5 but has drifted today.

[18bt] 10/11/2023 08:08

Interestingly, Brookfield Re's annuities de-risking is based in Canada. And Canada also has a burgeoning equity release sector (see for instance, which is owned by OTTP). So JUST is a good fit. But it would be a complex take-over.

[1jat] 09/11/2023 20:11

Correction…i confused some numbers….they wrote 16 bulk deals with a value of $250m.

Just would bulk them up.

[1jat] 09/11/2023 20:06

Brookfield Re announced its Q3 results.
$2bn sales of annuities including $1.6bn of bulk annuities.

They clearly have an appetite for what Just does……maybe there is more to the rumour a week or so ago….

(Yes I was down on the prospects of the deal only a few posts ago - but we can always hope)