Just Share Discussion Threads

[cthompso] 13/8/2024 06:13

Well on these measures it's looking great.£2.5bn total with increased margin too!

[1jat] 12/8/2024 09:46

Analysis of last years sales below to give an idea of what tomorrows HY results will be compared to.

2022, H1 23, H2 23 and FY 2023 sales were

Defined Benefit 2568, 1429, 1570, 2999 (+17%)

Individual annuities 564, 470, 424, 894 (+59%)

Growing at 15% would give an H1 24 sales around

DB 1600 (continued growth but lumpy, so could be +/- 300m

Ind 470 (if recovers the H2 drop)

If over £2bn in total look for comments about margins as to gain sales they may have reduced margin

If lower than 2bn look for what they say about DB lumpiness and H2 pipeline, they will want to demonstrate pricing discipline so we should expect margin improvements on lower sales.

[1jat] 31/7/2024 15:15

PIC / Rothesay which are privately owned by PE / SWFs are more likely because of the market scrutiny attached to an LGEN/PHNX.
But I am not holding out for a bid, I think the returns will be strong here for the next few years

[rsymes6] 31/7/2024 11:12

Maybe L&G should bid?

[salver2] 31/7/2024 09:40

I agree but it should be on someone’s radar as it is not exactly small - a bidder would probably need to find around 1.75 billion which is a reasonably sizeable deal

[1jat] 31/7/2024 07:54

An improving business that has gone through a period of restructuring and trades at a significant discount…̷0;
These are often conditions that attract activists / private equity bids. Just maybe a bit small to be on the radar.
Even in the absence of a bid I expect this will add 20p to the share price each year for the next 5 years and atleast double its dividend in that time (once the Solvency ration excluding transitional measures for technical provisions (the Solvency 2 concession running from 2016-2032) goes above 180%, the dividend taps can be opened more).

[clive7878] 30/7/2024 19:23

With half year results due in about 2 weeks time punters are buying in advance of prospective good improving results - expecting that the share price could be around 135p in 2 weeks time or even better - before falling back to 125p - then the price could be a bit iffy until early next March when it will spike again. It appears to be a solid improving business with good management making steady positive progress.

[salver2] 30/7/2024 14:43

Yes I suppose your right people just seem to have ADHD when it comes to shares these days -in earlier years a long term hold was a minimum 5 years and now it’s about 5 days!!!

[1jat] 30/7/2024 14:24

Salver…I think it is reasonably predictable…..it reports twice a year and updates it capital and net asset values…..due to the DB derisking market being strong for the next few years they expect to grow profits and the capital position quite strongly.
The price targets get rebased by analysts around this timetable. The share price rises in anticipation and in between when there is no news it drifts, with the market makers walking it down to get buyer interest.




I am expecting Just to report improved capital position and to update the dividend to be 50% of the final dividend for last year….0.75p which is a 20% uplift on last year.

[salver2] 30/7/2024 13:23

It’s such a strange share this one it seems to go down on great news and now up on no news!

[clive7878] 30/7/2024 12:33

Gravy train keeps going!

[1jat] 24/7/2024 07:52

No longer sure we are going to get a sales update….it is not long to the HY results.
The share price has moved up to being steadily above 110.
The results may add a few more p, but I expect a 105-115 range for the rest of the year and then another 10-15p step up with the FY results in March. (Annuities should be boring and predictable).

[clive7878] 15/7/2024 21:02

Did rise quite rapidly just before 10am - 108 to 113p - guessed it was on the back of a prospective good trading news - thought it might have been a tip somewhere.

[1jat] 15/7/2024 18:10

Clive - I think it was some traders positioning themselves for a good sales update - which they will sell into.
IMO I expect there will be a pop with the sales announcement (assuming it is in line with previous statements indicating strong growth is expected). It will then fall back before recovering with the actual results in August…..so there is a likely trading strategy.

[clive7878] 15/7/2024 15:58

CB7 - many thanks
Some may expect the update to be good ?
After all they gave taken on a lot more business.

[cb7] 15/7/2024 11:55

There's usually a trading update about now, possibly later this week.

[clive7878] 15/7/2024 10:08

Why the perk in price today - up as much as 5% at one point ?

[clive7878] 11/7/2024 20:56

Still think that we will have another perk up in share price which will come in August and on the back of what 1jat also is saying to with business of late being quite solid. Maybe not all of the good news and potential of the company moving forward is factored in with the share price at present

[1jat] 03/7/2024 20:02

Just has announced a £260m deal in July that it signed in March. The lack of announcements has bothered me, but this gives me confidence sales will be strong….but it is still all about the margin rather than volume.

[1jat] 03/7/2024 13:01

Barring any nasty market shocks (eg unexpected changes in govt policy/ mass credit defaults), I see this moving its trading range up in regular steps aligned with the financial reporting. There is limited coverage / updated analysis outside the formal reporting events. They plan to add about 30p pa to the CSM and I expect the market will recognise 15-20p of this in the SP…..
Hence if we consider the range since the FY23 results as 100-110, I anticipate 110-120 for H2 and 120-130 after the 2024 results.
As the quality of their capital increases (it was just under 170% SCR excluding transitional measures) they should be able to ramp up the dividend atleast inline with the 15% CSM growth.

[clive7878] 01/7/2024 10:54

1jat - agree next few coming weeks for an update on trading will be important for the share price, especially as interim results could be announced in mid-August - now coming closer. If the new business gained over the last year gels together then things could be good.

[1jat] 01/7/2024 07:32

Expecting a sales update in a couple of weeks time.
Looking for an uptick in individual business. The bulk business is more lumpy and less predictable….what they say about pipeline and margins on the bulk business is more important than whether they are ahead on sales due to this.

[1jat] 10/6/2024 09:02

I like the JPM update….for the direction of travel rather than the size of the target.

My view is this will add about 20p this year representing the value recognised by the market which should be about 30p in the accounts.

The FT is reporting that Labour is no longer going to reimplement the lifetime allowance. This is probably best news for SIPP providers, but it does no harm to have larger pots in the market as more is likely to end up in individual annuities.

[18bt] 10/6/2024 08:56

JPMorgan raises Just Group price target to 170 (160) pence - 'overweight'

[18bt] 08/5/2024 13:57

hxxps://www.professionalpensions.com/news/4205821/group-surpasses-400-bulk-annuity-transactions