Just Share Discussion Threads

[1jat] 19/5/2023 11:43

Clive…..
you dont say which Christmas…..
It has not been at 120 for 5 years and peaked at just under 110 in Feb 19 and again in Apr 20…..except for those false peaks it has been well under 100p.
This period has been one of consolidation and rebuilding the business to be less reliant on equity release and improving its capital position.
Sales should go well for the next few years as the great DB transfer from scheme trustees to insurers takes place. Just looks set to capture a good share at the low-middle value transactions as with the BUT deal earlier this week.
Whether this business is profitable / whether Just has enough capital for the inevitable bumpy road remains to be seen…..
The BPA sector is becoming more competitive….maybe some consolidation will happen….but I would not be surprised to see Just still here in 5 years, paying a dividend of 8p and a share price of 100.

[clive7878] 18/5/2023 21:39

Can't see anything wrong in having a stake in Aviva - share price 412 yield 7.8%, seems solid.
However share price has had a very rocky ride over the last 2 years to break out of the band. 380 / 460
as 4 times it has hit 380 to reach 3 times of 460.
my biggest stake is in Just Group though as if they prove to the market where they are going Just Group could have the biggest gain as the share price here could easily hit 120p by Christmas. - so my Christal balls tell me.

[18bt] 18/5/2023 10:19

Another small Buy-in yesterday: hxxps://www.professionalpensions.com/news/4115755/but-scheme-completes-gbp40m

[ammons] 16/5/2023 15:16

JUST pays a next to nothing dividend compared to all the others.

[apotheki] 16/5/2023 15:05

Aviva, L&G and other life insurers 'attractive' says broker due to property exposure protections

As a result, they believe the sector’s current average 2024 dividend yield of 9.3% is “an attractive entry point” and so reiterated ‘outperform’ ratings on Aviva PLC (LSE:AV.), Chesnara PLC (LSE:CSN), Just Group PLC (LSE:JUST), Legal & General Group PLC (LSE:LGEN), M&G PLC (LSE:MNG) and Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (LSE:PHNX)

[clive7878] 10/5/2023 18:31

salver2 - appears you are right - fundamentals on a forward pe of 3.5 says the price is cheap, the target price could be reached when the ifs and the buts are cleared up & there's is more belief. In the last 5 years the price has been rocky and investors are still nervous.
The I.C. last write up was very optimistic.

[1jat] 10/5/2023 17:37

JPM has lifted its target price to 125 from 115.

[salver2] 10/5/2023 15:55

I think it’s a difficult share to comment on -it looks ostensibly incredibly cheap but there are lots of moving parts and lots of different interpretations can be made

[clive7878] 10/5/2023 14:17

Surprised that there is no comments here, after the RNS yesterday !

[clive7878] 03/5/2023 20:06

Just share price appears to be unstable of late.
Would have thought it would be going above 90p or £1,
and that is just for starters.

[18bt] 28/4/2023 10:56

A few DB derisking deals announced by JUST on e.g. linkedin in the last week or so:

Today £34m Batt Cables
Yesterday £190m Ibstock
Last week £15m ESBS/Carillion

I understand the pipeline is very strong, so I'm expecting more.

[salver2] 27/4/2023 15:36

If you read carefully he sells a lot and retains a larger amount ( to pay for tax -)virtually all directors with share options do this

[clive7878] 26/4/2023 14:51

Over 1.1m sold to that of buys - what is going on here?

[clive7878] 25/4/2023 21:31

Simply Wall reports ' significant insider selling over the last three months ?
What does this mean ?
Someone needs to cash in stock for some personal reason or they expect the stock to fall. ?

[1jat] 25/4/2023 21:10

Cjac…..yes I did, I knew it was EVT.

[clive7878] 25/4/2023 21:08

So where do we anticipate the share price to be going, as I have a reasonable stake in Just.

[cjac39] 23/4/2023 19:35

perhaps you mean effective value test but agreed overall. I think the basic problem is being a public company makes them loose on costs. Some proper shareholder discipline would do them a lot of good.

[1jat] 23/4/2023 19:18

Thanks CJAC, I agree that liquidity is a big issue with Equity Release….they took a big hit when the regulator imposed stricter economic value test back in 18/19 which is why they have needed to sell down some of the mortgage book.
TBH they need to be part of bigger group that can diversify the longevity / liquidity risks. I guess that is the risk with a mono-line insurer - they are not diversified which should mean they have technical knowledge that is superior to others - but I think in this market sector margins have been squeezed hard with “innovative221; solutions finding ways to reduce the cost to the scheme sponsor and reinsurance taking a large piece of the action…..
I suspect an all share merger with another market participant may be better for shareholders…..management need to be realistic - they are not going to get a premium and may well have to settle for 75-80% of their value estimate….the share price seems to be quite stuck around 90p so 120 would represent a 33% premium…I agree - cant see much more that that TBH…unless it is an all share deal.

[cjac39] 21/4/2023 06:05

its in the sfcr as is most relevant non ifrs info. its the key yield that insurers are allowed to discount their liabilities at. the higher it is the more embedded risk they are running. with just the reason its so high is indicative of how high their ER ratio is in their back book. ER is dangerous because they bake in permanently positive HPI plus perhaps more troubling they are zero coupon and v long dated so eventually you end up with a large % of your book paying no cashflows.

but btw im not anti just per se - i think david r has done a great job of rescuing it and now i think it will flip into pe at a premium to the current share price its for me that putting it in runoff would have been a better outcome than the 120/130 shareholders will get when this is done. their cost base is bonkers and they could run retail annuities and bpas with 100 people not 1000 and all the ifa stuff is completely superfluous

[1jat] 20/4/2023 20:37

Cjac…i cant see this yield within the accounts, is it something you calculated?

I understand the risk would be if Just needed a higher yield than might be achievable for its assets to match the liabilities it claims to….but isn’t this a matter for the PRA and auditors? To either qualify hte accounts or impose additional capital requirements?
There may be good reason why Just assets can yield more than others based on asset mix and I expect use of reinsurance is also a factor.
Could you explain why you consider this a problem?

[cjac39] 19/4/2023 04:53

matching adjustment yield. last time i looked just was quite out if step with most others.

[clive7878] 18/4/2023 22:00

If Just Group can prove itself in the near future, then the share price will respond more positively, but I believe that they will achieve this time around, and the target share price may be be on the cards. Ifs and buts with all stocks, which ones have more substance. Just Group?

Sometimes I find with the I.C. there is a lot of hope and promise, but no too much substance to the reason why a share price should rise long term.

[1jat] 17/4/2023 19:17

Cjac - and also what your yield is based on? Op profit/Adjusted Op profit / IFRS/dividend….

[clive7878] 17/4/2023 17:55

Poorer day at the Office today - Monday 17th, share price drift ?

[clive7878] 11/4/2023 15:47

IMF on teletext believes that when inflation is under control that interest rates could fall back to pre covid interest rates. Looking quite optimistic.
Inflation currently I believe is at 10.4%, with food inflation at 17.5%.
Stockmarket today was quite firm.
I believe that JUST share price has further to go, Could we see £1.00 ?