Just Share Discussion Threads

[18bt] 08/11/2023 08:03

I don't think the DB market is slowing down - all the players are annecdotally very busy. This was in Professional Pesnions the other day:

The only long term threat I see is if the Govt does change legislation to allow the PPF to be a consolidator of DB schemes - but that will take time and allowing a Govt backed competitor to private companies would undoubtedly be anti-competitive.
Otherwise they have all got used to interest rate volatility, house prices seem to be holding up (but the PRA might perversely take a different view) and recent mortality experience should allow reserve releases.

[clive7878] 06/11/2023 22:49

The first half results were very good, but the S64 question is can they repeat this in the second half. The current pe ratio is just - excuse the pun - 3.5.
Broker target on share price is something like 128p If 1st half profit is maintained consistently then Just Group could be a very strong buy. but then it did slip from 90p down to 69p, so as Freedom express747 said the jam is not sure as yet.
There also could be takeover possibilities too. There is ifs and buts though.

We could know more in January 2024. I can't help thinking that this stock is very good value.
Share price back up to 95p or still bumming around at 75p ????

Can we see any "black clouds" on the horizon - or any negatives ????????????
I have been in and out of the stock although my timing leaves a lot to be desired also.

[freedomexpress747] 06/11/2023 18:27

On my watch list, have held in the past. It's a jam tomorrow share! Socially, very good idea the bulk annuity market... frees up the balance sheets of productive companies. The really big players can take the risk, insurance implies risk, and any derivatives involved can suddenly change... need a bit more jam today please

[clive7878] 01/11/2023 09:40

18BT - Many thanks - spike does make sense.
What do we expect for eps for the full year though,
as half year was quite good.
Are we still talking of a pe of 3.5 though?

[18bt] 25/10/2023 07:22

Clive see post 1777

[clive7878] 23/10/2023 14:40

Any reason why the share price went from 69 to 78 then back now to 72p please.
A tip, a rumour of a takeover?
Could still have a very low pe ratio after full years results, believe to be announced in January.
They do appear on the slide again - probably back to 70p

[18bt] 23/10/2023 09:25

1jat - agree with all of those points. Much easier doing a deal with PIC/Rothesay and you get a bigger player and none of the retail annuities.

[1jat] 20/10/2023 13:15

I suspect that Brookfield may well want to play a part in the BPA market….but it will be as a reinsurer rather than originator…The originators pay away significant profits to reduce their capital commitments….
The extension of the story to encompass buying (a stake) in Just / PIC may just be journalistic porky pies.
It would be much easier to acquire a stake in PIC/Rothesay from their PE / SWF owners than to bid for Just (as far as I am aware there is no need to Just to raise capital so there is no route to acquire 10-20% in a capital injection transaction)
So I am not expecting a bid for Just to emerge particularly given global conditions.

But I do think Just is a good value share investment at these prices…..I think we will see some decent increases in the dividend (which is not generous)….if they are targetting 15% CSM growth then that should feed through.

[lurker6] 19/10/2023 04:17

Thanks for the response. Unfortunately I don’t know a huge amount about Brookfield - do you have any thoughts on what might influence a decision between Just and PIC as a target?

If I’m not mistaken, the key differences between the two are that Just is listed (whereas PIC is not) and Just sells a broader range of products and significant exposure to ERMs (whilst PIC offers only DB). Not sure how either of these factors would be viewed by Brookfield though.

[ggrock] 18/10/2023 22:45

Possible changes in capital requirements in 2025, following consultation with leading insurers in 2024; tweaks expected my friend, not major overhaul

[1jat] 18/10/2023 10:26

Lurker
The PRA publishes a business plan and it is looking at reinsurance within the BPA market, particularly funded reinsurance. There have been speeches by Caroline Gherkin (not sure of the spelling?) setting out the concerns.
Their deliberations may lead to new changes in the way the market operates to make the business carry more capital hence “safer”.
There are about 10 companies active in the BPA market, so I would expect all will be in scope of the PRA work….and all will be affected by the outcome.

[lurker6] 18/10/2023 01:56

How do you know that Just’s low capital usage is being investigated by the PRA?

[1jat] 17/10/2023 21:56

Trouble is too many have been crying “takeover̶1; recently….MNG, AV to name just a couple. IMO we will not see a cash bid.
Just has its niche at the lower value, simpler scheme level. It has low capital usage on new business so must be using reinsurance…which the PRA is investigating…the regulator could make this business “safer” for the regulator but unprofitable as it did when it looked at ERMs
Just has a lot of future value but does not generate cash today….hence low dividend and lack of interest.

I expect Just is too small and needs to be consolidated. Management may be holding out for too high a price….not sure a reinsurer will be the one to make a bid….but they may take a stake providing more capital to grow the business.

[salver2] 17/10/2023 19:47

What I find strange is that these shares are in an apparently boom sector and are trading at less than a third of their assets in a pe of about 3 and even with bid rumours can only shift a few measly percent

[1jat] 17/10/2023 13:46

Come on Brookfield….show us the money.

[18bt] 17/10/2023 12:19

UK PLSA conference this week. May be some interesting announcements..

[clive7878] 03/10/2023 12:36

Should be the time to buy - IF no ghosts in the cupboard (bad news to come.
Hopefully bottomed out ???

[salver2] 03/10/2023 10:53

On a pe of less than 3!!

[clive7878] 27/9/2023 13:27

Don'the panic Mr Mannering as the share price falls at one point to to under 70p.
Must be a buy at this level

[clive7878] 18/9/2023 18:29

Share price drifting still drifting - not good and no news either. Cud go under 70p the way things are going. To think they were forecasting a pe of 3 at one time ?

[clive7878] 15/9/2023 14:43

Share price very volatile at present, far from the dizzy heights of 90p.
I would have thought with some of the deals that have been done that profits should be stronger than last year.

[clive7878] 05/9/2023 10:31

18BT - Just Group does appear to be doing some good deals here & there. One would hope in time these will be reflected in the future share price as it it seems to be relative flat.

[18bt] 04/9/2023 14:48

Latest DB de-risking deals:


Today:
Just Group, the FTSE retirement specialist are pleased to have completed an £18.4 million buy-out with The Association of British Insurer’s Pension and Assurance Scheme (“The Scheme”). The transaction secures the benefits of all remaining members of The Scheme sponsored by The Association of British Insurers (ABI) and comprises 16 pensioner members and 118 deferred members, the Scheme having insured its other pensioners in previous transactions.

30/8:
Just Group are pleased to have completed a £290 million buy-in with the ITB Pension Funds (Open Fund). This is the fifth and final buy-in completed by the Fund which has now secured all members’ benefits. With thanks to LCP and the Trustee at The ITB Pension Funds (Open Fund) for their collaboration in transacting the deal.

[valuschmalu] 26/8/2023 09:48

cjac39, apologies if this is a stupid point/question as I'm not an actuary but per slide 34 of the H1 23 deck, OCG before new business strain is £48m so lets keep things simple and say £96m on annual basis. Given the size of the CSM, can we not expect c.£96m per annum cash generation for a number of years to come and doesn't that looks decent for market cap of £747m?