Just Share Discussion Threads

[clive7878] 22/1/2024 16:55

Just is still not on many investors radar screens, so when it is, we should see a rerated share price

[1jat] 22/1/2024 12:30

The trading update now appears to be having an effect…..along with a survey reported in the FT that DB bulk annuity business is expected to be even stronger in 2024.

This business has a good ten years of growth in it…..while sales may then stagnate there will be consolidation opportunities as the market weakens….and then the auto enrolment businesses will start looking for guaranteed annuity income….

Long term positives

[charlie] 18/1/2024 22:12

Utmost is not so tiny any more. £1.8bn SII Own Funds. And that's 85% owned by Oaktree (Howard Marks's firm).

Oaktree could probably put in a lot money for a foray into UK bulk annuities. But I have no indication that they have any interest in doing so.

I'm actually a bit surprised they want to own a UK life insurer at all. Fashionable for US PE firms to own US annuity writers, but the regulation is a lot more accommodating there.

[1jat] 18/1/2024 13:02

18BT - Brookfield and Apollo have also been cited in articles.

Utmost is tiny…..and RL is a mutual so is unlikely to be able to justify a bid for Just….it cant merge and issue shares in RL.

The US / Canadian operators could raise the funds for the modest deal Just would be for them.

[clive7878] 18/1/2024 11:59

Agree with 1jat that Just Group does appear to be an unloved stock.
Just appears to be growing and doing all of the right things,
but one does wonder if on 7th March with increased profits and still a very low pe ratio, whether the share price will have the share price rise it deserves.

[18bt] 18/1/2024 10:25

1jat, the names I have heard who are looking to enter (Royal London and Utmost) couldn't afford it. I think new entrants may be overplayed - there are plenty of players - but the ownership of PIC is crucial to that continuing

[1jat] 18/1/2024 09:19

Market reaction is surprising….a small fall.
Just really does appear to be unloved.

If I were looking to enter the BPA market (1 or 2 are expected this year), bidding for Just gets a full capability operation immediately.

[18bt] 18/1/2024 07:27

Looks like an income beat against mkt expectations of £4.16m and margins also better. Look forward to the final results on 7/3.

[clive7878] 11/1/2024 18:39

Could be in for a trading update in 3 weeks time. I would have thought alsto that we could have a tip in the IC.

[clive7878] 05/1/2024 11:18

All is looking good, except the flat share price, which could be rerated when the trading update at the end of the month is announced.
Share price cud be £1 when investors wake up to a very low pe ratio & the prospectsame of good year nd results - especially when the buy tips come in.

563,000 shares deal bought at the end of trading on Tuesday, 16 Jan. Someone believes strongly in the stock.

[18bt] 04/1/2024 15:26

This just out: hxxps://www.professionalpensions.com/news/4160447/cp-pharmaceuticals-scheme-signs-gbp28m-deal-group
what is interesting is that it completed in Oct 2023, but only now announced

And read the last para re a total of £382m of deals announced around year end (incl. £60 of Hyde Housing in my post 1813).

[clive7878] 03/1/2024 09:49

ijat - I tend to go along with what you are saying. The trading update at the end of January could well be important. Income is expected to rise with the additions of more business deals taken place, along with profits. With such a low pe ratio, the share price should be higher, even though the dividend rate is poor, the
growth should not be dismissed.

[1jat] 03/1/2024 09:12

Historically there has been a trading update at the end of January with the results in early March.
I expect sales will have continued to be strong in H2.
The company has been in rehab for several years….the cash flow has improved. How they articulate how they will deploy the free cash flow (new business, dividend, debt repayment) will be the most important part of the results this year and next.

There are several PE investors said to be looking to make investments in BPA…..I would like to see Just increase its capital and strike a JV deal to manage BPAs with an investor. This would make its fee income predictable and reduce its exposure to the underlying insurance risks.

[eigthwonder] 02/1/2024 22:07

"earnings" and "NAV" are all a bit moot in a world where actuaries tell accountants what the numbers are. One of JUSt's problems is that this is a sector where dividend yield matters (because investors don't trust many of the other numbers) and JUSt's yield is paltry in comparison with the peers. Sure there is dividend growth and there is promise of more to come but JUST is the poor relation here and demonstrably doesn't have the cash flow to fund premium rates of both growth and income.

[clive7878] 02/1/2024 17:29

Why are there far more sells than buys today if the stock is so good and on a prospective pe of 3. Surely at £1 the stock would still be cheap.
Believe next set of results are due around 7th March.

[clive7878] 24/12/2023 11:53

shauney2 - good spot -
Just Group on a pe of 3 is quite silly,
the share price should be at least 110p
and could well be next year.

[shauney2] 22/12/2023 17:22

Mentioned in Shares magazine asone of their 10 picks for 2024.hTtps://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/2024-stock-pick-just-group-is-so-cheap-and-has-big-growth-drivers-behind-it

[clive7878] 21/12/2023 15:19

18BT - Sounds good news to come for the results and SP
I believe that this stock has gone off investors radar screen at present.
Could it be a wake up call when results are announced ?
Share price is really bobbing around of late now 83.2 was just a couple of days ago 86.4.

[18bt] 20/12/2023 16:38

Worth noting the quote: Just Group head of defined benefit sales Pete Jennings said as we approach year-end, "we see no slowdown in transaction activity across schemes of all sizes".

[1jat] 17/12/2023 18:14

PE has the cash…..to buy the businesses…..it also has a lot of businesses that can issue private credit….which will be c40% of the portfolio assets backing BPAs….so it does not have to directly leverage the insurance company as it can leverage other PE investments into the insurer and pay itself divdends from the other businesses.

Overall I would agree the most likely scenario is that these PE houses are going to buy other PE stakes in PIC/Rothesay.

[18bt] 15/12/2023 16:35

It will also test whether it is possible for PE to buy a UK life assurer of any reasonable size. The PRA rules mitigate against any leverage being used and they are also cracking down on pseudo leverage such as funded reinsurance. Much more likely might be a consortium of Sovereign Investment Funds, like the ones which own Rothesay.

[1jat] 15/12/2023 13:48

Apollo said to be considering £5bn offer for PIC.
At the HY PIC claimed approx £6bn in capital……;bid seems a bit light unless the bond market interest rates have burnt a huge hole in the capital position.

[1jat] 15/12/2023 08:44

FT reports three large US PE houses are considering bids for PIC…..if a transaction happens that will be an interesting benchmark for how to value Just…and maybe the market will make some further ownership changes.
With interest rates turning, this might be a good time to pounce on UK stocks.

[1jat] 08/12/2023 17:47

Only a couple of weeks ago £10bn was announced across three deals.
I would be surprised if Just did not beat its H1 sales volume.

PRA has said today it may remove a test from the TMTP calculation which may save give some companies more capital relief through TMTP….not going to affect 2023 results at it needs approval but something for them to talk about if it is beneficial.