Just Share Discussion Threads

[1jat] 29/2/2024 15:33

8 March is the date on their financial calendar…

[clive7878] 27/2/2024 10:56

Full year results must be soon ?
May be some upwards movement when these come out ?

[1jat] 26/2/2024 11:24

The debt element of the SCR own funds is set out in the appendix to the HY results.
They have £155m maturity in 2025 and a call over a further £250m (7%), 2026 has a £175 maturity on a 9% debt. There is no treasury action needed in 2024. SII leverage is shown as 34%, which is similar to MNG but others seek a target range of 25-30%. They may well refinance these instruments although that depends on what the market rates are…..they should be able to do better than the 9% coupon due 2026 as that was raised at a time of relative distress (SP around 50p).

The company finances have definitely improved….and the share price should follow but with Just it seems to be a case of just not now.

[1jat] 26/2/2024 11:07

Riverman
I would agree that earnings are less meaningful for insurers(and banks for that matter) than the capital position.
The IFRS17 reporting now into its second round are intended to show a more stable IFRS profit as most of the asset price volatility /liability measurement changes will go through the contract service margin and be spread over 30-40 years for a company like Just. They will report a new business profit (what they add to the CSM in expected future profits) and this should provide direction over whether they are growing profits year by year.
However the health of the company and what they can afford to distribute is governed by the capital position. Just has been rebuilding its capital and is entering the range when it starts to hold more capital than it needs so it should start increasing its shareholder returns (dividend and buy back). I expect they will raise the Dividend in line with their growth in underlying earnings (15%). If they can do a meaningful buy back (5% / £40m) as well that could really help the share price
Their HY 23 capital position was an SCR of 204%…they only really need to hold 160-180%. So there could be room for an additional capital return….lets see.

[clive7878] 23/2/2024 22:37

Could be that the full year results in 2 weeks time may answer some questions, & the share price may react favourably.

[riverman77] 23/2/2024 18:50

Do earnings really mean anything in the life insurance sector? There are so many different ways of calculating earnings that I prefer to focus on income and on that measure JUST is not compelling. I am sure there is a lot of value here, but very hard to measure it.

[salver2] 23/2/2024 18:45

It appears so undervalued if you look at the prospective PE ratio -although it depends what site you go on Market Screener reckon above 10 other sites 3 or 4 -I don’t think anyone really understands the company-I think we’ll have to wait for the earnings and forward guidance to make head or tail of this one!

[clive7878] 23/2/2024 11:28

Can the share price break out of the 80p - 82p price range ?
Seems strange - getting more business, profits estimated to be up 15%,
low pe ratio, and we have a flat share price.
And results could be in 2 weeks time ?
Will the stock then show up on investors radar screen ?

[clive7878] 21/2/2024 12:32

1jat - agree
Hopefully there is support at 80p -
as I believe that there should be
Why - more business, higher profits,
even lower pe ratio and good fundamentals.

A lot of investors must be looking for bad news
with a rocky share price just before results ?

Can't understand why there are so many trades of selling stock in single figures,
the commission must exceed the value of the stock sold ?

[18bt] 21/2/2024 11:08

A bit more new business:
Spar Pension Fund bags £11m buy-in with Just Group

[1jat] 21/2/2024 08:32

It is just about clinging on to 80p…
Worth buying at these levels to sell into any results bounce.

[clive7878] 20/2/2024 13:59

The Market Makers could be pushing the share price down - so investors then sell - so then if the results next month are are better thanservice the price & make more money. expected - being already on a low pe ratio - they can rai

[clive7878] 20/2/2024 10:58

I nearly sold out yesterday to buy another stock, however I still have faith in my original decision to buy and of late top up as well. I still like the fact that they are on a very low pe ratio, and also that profits to be announced in early March should improve the pe ratio even further.

The $64 question is although in theory the share price 'should' rise - will this be the case. Of late there appears to be a lot of sheep around - following the head sheep - one period there is a flood of sells, then later a flood of buys, and no logic to the share price either.

[1jat] 19/2/2024 15:38

Next catalyst will be the results call in early March.
Given the sales volumes, I expect a decent uplift in new business profits (additions to the IFRS 17 Contract Service Margin) and continued capital strength.

I expect the dividend to increase 15% (in line with profits)….if there is additional excess capital (SCR>180) I would expect them to retire some expensive debt, although a buy back may have a more positive effect on the share price

[clive7878] 19/2/2024 14:28

A string of buys coming through of late. share price 80.4 / 80.6 unchanged. Still flat.

[1jat] 14/2/2024 19:13

I think the current worry is what the commentary coming from regulators and trustees about off-shore funded reinsurance will mean.
It is likely to mean Just needs to increase capital held against the business that is classed as funded reinsurance. This will increase new business strain and may reduce ROC or the business volume that Just can win as its cost of capital will increase.
Uncertainty is a killer reason to not invest, so I dont expect the share price to change dramatically until the implications are clearer.

However I would agree this is a cheap undervalued share.

[clive7878] 14/2/2024 14:17

The share price is a bit wobbly. One could make money on the ups and down of late -
87p then 82p then back up again. But what do the future hold. On a very low pe ratio it must be worth holding ?

[clive7878] 09/2/2024 21:16

2 blocks of 2.6m shares bought yet the share price has gone down. ??

[cjac39] 09/2/2024 15:26

thats curious though as well. even if you buy the idea that 23 was normal year it really shouldnt have been given all the excesses of 20,21,22. ie normally after a bad flu season you tend to see lighter mortality following. this all says something different has taken place...

[1jat] 08/2/2024 19:28

Thanks CJAC, a useful resource.
The chart 24-01 article is suggesting that mortality in 2023 was similar to the pre 2019 trend line…which represents a very quick return to trend.

The cancer treatment delays highlighted in today’s BBC news is a counter indicator, and there will be more mortality being driven by the cost of living.

[cjac39] 08/2/2024 11:36

1jat. this gives sense of likely impact depending on how much you bake in:

hxxps://www.clubvita.net/uk/news-and-insights/top-charts-23-08-incorporating-pandemic-data-into-mortality-projection-models

[clive7878] 08/2/2024 11:27

Share price a bit flat at present and even a bit wobbly as well.
Need some good concrete news.

[18bt] 01/2/2024 11:40

1jat - agreed, excess COVID deaths in total over the 3 years were 178k according to the ONS. It has levelled off and there is a possibility it only brought a cohort of deaths forward by a few years, but at the very least COVID seemed to stop the annual increase in life expectancy for at least 3 years. It may have slowed it permanently, but that make some a couple more years to show through. I suspect JUST will be cautious but make some reserving adjustments.

[1jat] 01/2/2024 11:29

hxxps://www.justgroupplc.co.uk/~/media/Files/J/Just-Retirement-Corp/news-doc/2024/biggest-surge-in-excess-deaths-among-50-64-year-olds-since-start-of-covid-19-pandemic.pdf

The £400m deal is announced in the company news feed. The above article also caught my attention with the significant number of excess deaths continuing to feature post pandemic.
While this is UK wide data and economic disparities have affected excess deaths, I would be surprised if this was not also evident among the insured customers of Just and the other annuity providers…..we can expect some reserving adjustments to come through in the next couple of years…..a bit of a reversal of the last 30 years of ever improving life expectancy.

[18bt] 31/1/2024 22:30

£400m de-risking transaction completed yesterday and announced in pensions press. Good way to start the year