Jet2 Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 05/2/2021 16:03

1491 offered. Unbelievable.

Jet2’s action (especially after crossing £12 mark) reminds one of Soros’ wisdom “... when I see a bubble forming I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire. And that is not irrational”. Onwards and upwards to £17 area for one final push chaps.

Happy to be long heading into the weekend - have a good w'end all.

[castleford tiger] 05/2/2021 14:32

Leeds and East Midlands passengers terminals closing and will await Government guidelines.
My RYAN driver pal has had his only flight pulled.
April/may/june RYAN offering hopefully a very limited service. Again down to Boris et ao

[tongosti] 05/2/2021 12:36

Anyways, I added earlier to original long position I initiated a couple of days back. With trailing stop a touch lower from avg entry price this is on the house now. I doubt this will happen today (us indexes WAY overstretched) but I wouldn't mind seeing 1500 being smashed today (low probability event as it is for the day).

[skanjete2] 05/2/2021 08:51

CT,

I get what you're saying and it sounds perfectly reasonable. It depends on the investment style and temperament as well, I suppose.

Though I spend these days a lot more time investigating companies than I used to, my number of transactions is way lower. Last year was the least active year I can remember, I did maybe 3 transactions that counted.

Strangely, this doesn't seem to affect my long term results. 15 years ago, I had more spectacular years and a lot more volatility, but also a horrible year like 2008. Now, I run the portfolio with a lot of cash, close to no long-term risk and less volatility. This looks boring price-wise, but over the long run, results are very satisfying.

Moreover, from a rational point of view, you don't want things to be spectacular anymore, at a certain point. Why would you risk what you have and need in order to get something you don't have and need? At a certain point a 50% loss is way more important than a 50% profit, certainly if the 50% profit doesn't provide you any incremental benefit in life.

Anyhow, I have a lot of respect for your work. Keep on going, I would say.

[castleford tiger] 04/2/2021 18:18

Skanjete 2

You make some excellent points and well done for topping up in the bad days.

When I invest in a company or when I buy a business I like to do my own DD.

I had a handle on Jet2 so much so Andy Brough at Schroders said I knew more than anyone.

I invest a huge amount of time in following stories/leads from people at the company and from people in the industry.
I correctly predicted TCG going bust and the boost DART group would get.

Jet2 still has the no1 reputation in the holiday business. Its trusted by so many.

I know Tong keeps going on about COVID but JET 2 were not too expensive when the fall came but got caught in the panic. Without it and with the predicted 30% growth last year we would be at £25.

The fleet would be 125 with the Airbus 321 that we almost bought and leased.

That's the past.
In the current year our turnover will be 85% plus down to under 450m.
I have no idea what losses we have incurred.
The interest on the new fleet.
The staff re training costs.
The fuel hedges that will have gone against us.

I don't know because until we see the numbers in July I have no idea how much cash is left or what damage has been done to the balance sheet.
Of course government support will of helped but again we don't know.

I have no idea when LS XXX will fly again.

So whilst I have no doubt that over time JET 2 will go on to new highs at the moment there are better places to invest.
VCP has increased 400% this year. ( tax year )
TND has done the same.
Many others are 300% up and that's where I am right now.

To drop these in the draw is fine but I am a little more active in the market.
Of course buying Jet2 at 300 in the dark days was with hindsight the right thing to do as a long term investor. You did it.

Dart was my longest holding with bits from 16p and plenty much higher. My timing with covid was poor but I was in Switzerland until being kicked out when all this started to unwind.

I admit I am wrong with the current price because the market price is what counts.
However I was right when I championed this for many years when the market ( price was too low) undervalued it for so long.

I still feel there will be a better time to take the position I want. If only because I personally feel more comfortable.

Good luck

[tongosti] 04/2/2021 16:03

I know that pal as you're a smart man. I was just illustrating the potential conditions preceding a future short. Re huevos - we have all seen a few rookies on this board whose cojones were chopped off (in their futile attempts to show Mr Market who was the boss) early last year. Yes - it's never wise to go against the one and only.

[snorkelparker] 04/2/2021 15:55

tong, don't think my balls are big enough for a short lol

[snorkelparker] 04/2/2021 15:53

yeah all very interesting really..triple top or a break out for a last burst ..time will tell. I'm so on the fence..can see where tong is coming from but just can't help be anchored a wee bit to potential numbers...

[tongosti] 04/2/2021 15:53

The only way you would like to go short is a one day collapse (preferably if that takes place on no news at all) on humongous volumes. Short of that, it's def not a good idea, in my view.

[tongosti] 04/2/2021 15:50

To be clear: by a) I mean my inflation created by existing money printing. By b) I meant excess demand for JET2 products due to higher market share in the sectorPS. Interesting seeing more and more trying to merry their fundamental views with existing price action. Bodes well for another major push north (the final one, as I have been making the case for a long time).

[snorkelparker] 04/2/2021 15:48

I think a short is probably the way to go..but need some balls ..and don't ride it down too far..wonder if we will get any sort of announcements on guidance on bookings and cash position

[tongosti] 04/2/2021 15:47

Not clear re ticket price inflation the fella was referring to as that seems to imply either a) inflation in the underlying economy or b) a demand shock. If the former, then you would expect zero net effect (on snorkel's multiple estimates) as inflation will creep in through the cost base as well. Can't have it both ways.

[snorkelparker] 04/2/2021 15:34

legg96, the numbers are just pulled up for discussion..so many variables put there who really knows..so not really factored in specifics .just been following this company for nearly 15 years so just based on approx feeling but I have this as a 10 to 11.5 share price .currently ..to 20 plus in the next 2 -5 years

[skanjete2] 04/2/2021 15:30

CT,

I too would have expected the share price to be lower given the current circumstances.

You always said you are an investor in stead of a speculator. But what you are suggesting is exactly that : you suggest to try to time the market in Jet2.

I don't hear you suggesting that Jet2 is a bad company, on the contrary. Nobody disputes the fact that this is a quality company that will create value over time, up and above the current market valuation.

For an investor, the value is created by the underlying fundamentals and value creation within the company as opposed to a speculator who is trying to buy something with the hope to find somebody who is willing to pay a little more for it.

Look at what Jet2 created over the last 10 years for its investors. I think the conditions are in place for them to keep on creating value in the future. So for what reason would you sell right now?

True, the market is expensive, but this is also true for the alternatives to put your money in. And what if it stays expensive until JET2 is printing money again? Then you're not longer owner of a great company and its underlying value creation just because you tried to be a little smarter than the rest of the market.

I consider myself also to be an investor. I too think the current share price is relatively high but not extremely so. Before the pandemic my biggest position was Jet2 because of accrued profits. I didn't sell a single share during all of the turmoil (I even bought some extra) and now I am not really intending to do it either.
My fortune will evolve in step with the fortunes of Jet2 and I'm fine with that.

[castleford tiger] 04/2/2021 13:34

On the other hand - What are you throwing your money at CT? LPA,MPAC and TND are up an average of 52% since I saw you mentioned them ...

That's correct and hopefully more to come.
I expect £10 at tandem in a year or two.

All of these are trading at NAV and or on a very low PER.
You can add HSP/MFX to that list.

Stay safe guys and girls
tiger

[wilddcw] 04/2/2021 12:03

With interest rates so low, there are too many looking at throwing their money at something riskier. I can't believe the prices of some shares (this one included) and especially some recent floats/IPOs.

On the other hand - What are you throwing your money at CT? LPA,MPAC and TND are up an average of 52% since I saw you mentioned them ...

[shanklin] 04/2/2021 10:51

And what will the rules be:
- No travel insurance without having had the second jab at least 3 weeks prior?
- No entry into some countries without having had the second jab at least 3 weeks prior?
- 10+ days quarantine upon entry in some countries?
- 10 days quarantine on return from anywhere more heavily infected than the UK?

I would like to be able to travel abroad this year but certainly don't think we will be back to anything like normal until the latter part of the year at best.

[castleford tiger] 03/2/2021 22:59

Sponges
But when will that be?

[sponges] 03/2/2021 19:06

We are now starting to get a daily drip drip of good news whether it is 10 million jabs passed or vaccine evidence showing it reduces transmission to new vaccines about to come on stream etc etc etc - this obviously has to have a drip drip effect on the ftse etc and people will go on holiday as soon as they are allowed

[tongosti] 03/2/2021 18:19

Post 1061For every "market is crazy" view there is someone else out there making money. Yes - it is mind boggling (to a few rookies of these boards) but one's job is to make money come what may. And that inevitably means bending with the markets. Doesn't matter how one cuts it. Check out the volumes traded today. Interesting vote of confidence.

[castleford tiger] 03/2/2021 17:09

We agree.
There are those ( now thankfully filtered ) who thinks the price is fair.

I am not arguing with the market price ......market cap 2.65 b ..It is what is says.... BUT.....but for years I argued the other way when it was a fast growing business.

Its not like turning a tap on there is 18/24 months lead into holidays and the procurement of leased aircraft etc.

At the moment NOBODY at the company knows when they might operate again.
That is a frightening prospect but as I am told the market is forward looking.

Well at the moment it says JET2 will make 260m and frankly that aint going to happen this year April 21 or the year after April 22.
I know a few are ready to short this for the third time.

Tiger

[shanklin] 03/2/2021 16:32

CT,

Given there is no likelihood of significant JET2 holidays in 2021, the share price seems completely out of step with reality. It was only £16+ when I sold right at the beginning of the pandemic and since then there has been a heavily discounted placing.

I love the way JET2 is run but a share price above £10 seems ludicrous.

[castleford tiger] 03/2/2021 16:26

I note 2022 flights are out and being heavily pushed.

Suppose it helps cash flow.

No news from the company as to a possible start up again.
As we stand its the end of March...... but changes will be made by Boris and co.

My charting pals are looking at this for a possible double/triple top.

tiger

[legg96] 03/2/2021 09:23

Snorkelparker,
Interesting numbers. What have you built in for ticket price inflation?