Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ohisay] 24/1/2024 09:42

The seven new PSCs were awarded to PETRONAS Carigali Sdn. Bhd. (PETRONAS Carigali), E&P Malaysia Venture Sdn. Bhd. (EPMV), Petroleum Sarawak Exploration & Production Sdn. Bhd. (PSEP), SMJ Energy Sdn. Bhd. (SMJ Energy), INPEX Malaysia E&P (INPEX), PT Pertamina Malaysia Eksplorasi Produksi (Pertamina), Jadestone Energy (PM) Inc., Sarawak Shell Bhd. (Shell), and E&P O&M Services Sdn. Bhd. (EPOMS)


Jadestone Energy and Petronas Carigali for Block PM428

[ashkv] 20/1/2024 16:19

Cheers Tom111

[tom111] 20/1/2024 14:30

"Jadestone assessing more drilling targets offshore Malaysia" you can find the article on"Oil & gas news 24/7" under yesterdays news items plenty of news in there

[toby hall] 19/1/2024 20:50

Yesterday the gap from 31 July 2023 was finally closed and confidence returned today. Some decent buys with a nice large UT, value £59,400 just after the bell.

Also worth noting the RSI is well oversold and the MACD 4 hour on the daily is crossing.

Next week already looks a lot rosier.

[nigelpm] 19/1/2024 18:23

Yeah - lots of changes since - bottomline 27p looks good.

[spangle93] 19/1/2024 17:51

Ref the "when the share price was £1" comparison
I think when the share price was at £1, everyone was expecting plenty of wonga to hit the company's books once the operatorship of Maari was secured. Losing that must be a signficant contributor to the slide

[yasx] 19/1/2024 17:38

Indeed - not for widows and orphans and all that. But I like the risk/reward.

[stemis] 19/1/2024 15:53

It is meaningless comparing the Co. as it stood back then with the current outfit, but not only because of the additional issue of equity - separately, because it is a markedly different business. That Co. was largely reliant on montara. The current business has shifted away from that to other assets.

I don't disagree. However back then the market had a positive view of Montara whereas now I'd say it has a 'less' positive view. Whether that will change and whether the other assets will compensate if it doesn't is what will determine where the share price goes (not the repetive rampings of Ashkv). You pays ya money and takes ya chance...

[ashkv] 19/1/2024 15:51

Not one for technical analysis but interesting analysis from another forum.

"If I had some cash under the sofa, today would be the the perfect day to buy. There was still a little more selling yesterday, but the small body of that candle and the high volume indicated a closer balance between buyers and sellers. Not yet close of day of course, but we do have a potential reversal signal on the charts forming today, not the most potent of the reversal signals ( that would be an bullish engulfing), but still a bullish piercing pattern nonetheless, and very tradable as its occurring in the region of gap support.

The long term trend here is still sideways, the down trend ended with a double bottom pattern in August 2023. Price will often transition from down to sideways, before rising. so a little punt here could be quite profitable in the medium/long term. DYOR, as this share has made a fool of many including myself many times in the past."

[stemis] 19/1/2024 15:48

Hear we go again with the Stemis troll take -> End 2023 published figure of USD 5 million "Net Debt" is "probably understated" :) :) Says it all...

Actually what I was referring to was the comment in the corporate update

The end-2023 net debt position benefitted from timing of liftings and optimisation of working capital into the year-end.

[ashkv] 19/1/2024 15:47

What would you say for the theoretically overvalued view?

Downside on further missteps vs upside... skew?

Investing is about knowing the risks and minimizing them.

I believe the share price more than compensates for the below risks...

Montara further issues (10%)
RBL Redetermination Goes Smoothly(90%)
Brent Price Averages above $75 for 2024(90%)
Akatara Delay Possibility(10%)
Issues with other fields (10%)

[yasx] 19/1/2024 15:42

It is meaningless comparing the Co. as it stood back then with the current outfit, but not only because of the additional issue of equity - separately, because it is a markedly different business. That Co. was largely reliant on montara. The current business has shifted away from that to other assets. Income streams and proportion of each is/will be entirely different to the business a year ago.

I do see the point Nigel was trying to make but it has been misconstrued.

[ashkv] 19/1/2024 15:41

Thx Tom not here to make friends - and am working to be less brash...

That my postings are of value is good to hear :)

tom11119 Jan '24 - 14:37 - 20750 of 20753
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Thanks for posting ash always appreciate your postings

[ashkv] 19/1/2024 15:40

NigelPM is a constant in stepping in to support Stemis when the troll gets called out...

Funny... perhaps friends or more in the real world )

USD Net Cash on balance sheet vs USD 200mn Akatara asset giving a 15 to 20% after tax profit (with upside potential)...

NAV/Book Value (Akatara Asset) vs Enterprise Value(Cash)...

[nigelpm] 19/1/2024 14:49

I concur with calcs though Stemis - would put the present day 27p somewhere around previous to raise 65p with warrant dilution if it gets over 50p.

[nigelpm] 19/1/2024 14:46

That's not really a fair comparison though. Since it was last £1 the company have 16% more shares to spread the value over and the company has gone from $117m of cash to net debt (probably understated) of $5m. Adjusting for those, the comparison is 27p v 69p. That doesn't take account of the dilutive impact of the warrants issued since then./

Which is still very material and the reason I put bracketed and explicitly called out the pre/post equity dilution! ;-)

[tom111] 19/1/2024 14:37

Thanks for posting ash always appreciate your postings

[ashkv] 19/1/2024 14:22

Agreed YasX - we just need delivery by JSE with pleasant surprises of some bolt on self funding acquisitions once RBL is done and Akatara online...

Strong oil price would be a welcome tailwind should the one above deem so...

MarketScreener Analyst Consensus only 4/5 analysts that cover the firm (12 Month Target Prices are in USD for some reason) ->

[yasx] 19/1/2024 13:09

The issue is that, as TTB points out, it is not simply the numbers but delivering them. Over the past year the Co. has frequently failed (for one reason or another, but mainly Montara) to achieve its previously stated objectives. If the market is pricing it correctly there is a significant risk that going forward they will continue to run into problems even if things like Akatara are lined up. If the market is wrong and there are no further issues on any front, the current price represents a great opportunity. I am in the latter camp. I can see why others might take the opposing view. But this is not a case of the numbers imply 'X' and therefore it is. Not so - PB needs to deliver and on a sustained basis to regain the confidence of investors. A decent update followed by a disappointing one will just not cut it.

[stemis] 19/1/2024 12:15

That's not really a fair comparison though. Since it was last £1 the company have 16% more shares to spread the value over and the company has gone from $117m of cash to net debt (probably understated) of $5m. Adjusting for those, the comparison is 27p v 69p. That doesn't take account of the dilutive impact of the warrants issued since then.

[nigelpm] 19/1/2024 11:10

I agree Taurus - but there's a very material difference in market cap when it was at £1 (pre equity raise) vs. now at 27p (post equity raise)

[taurusthebear] 19/1/2024 11:04

ashkv - it's theoretically undervalued, dependent on future POO, Akatara going smoothly, no more higher de-commissioning costs etc. etc. etc.

But that argument could also have been used when it was a quid. Numbers can be as dangerous as they can be compelling. Too many unknowns, in many investors minds, equates to higher risk rather than better value.

[nigelpm] 19/1/2024 10:54

Order book in auction looking much stronger - would expect near term move up now.

[ashkv] 19/1/2024 10:36

Insight analysis etc welcome on all boards....however...

The below is "Twaddle"

"This is heading down. Until it heads up. No doubt it will prove a lucrative investment... at some time."

Oh great market timer... Is it undervalued, overvalued, fairly valued???

TaurusTheBear19 Jan '24 - 10:09 - 20741 of 20741
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The fact that anyone who offers a view different to ashkv is talking "twaddle" tells you all you need to know.

And underlines the pitfalls of BBs.