Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[yasx] 19/1/2024 13:09

The issue is that, as TTB points out, it is not simply the numbers but delivering them. Over the past year the Co. has frequently failed (for one reason or another, but mainly Montara) to achieve its previously stated objectives. If the market is pricing it correctly there is a significant risk that going forward they will continue to run into problems even if things like Akatara are lined up. If the market is wrong and there are no further issues on any front, the current price represents a great opportunity. I am in the latter camp. I can see why others might take the opposing view. But this is not a case of the numbers imply 'X' and therefore it is. Not so - PB needs to deliver and on a sustained basis to regain the confidence of investors. A decent update followed by a disappointing one will just not cut it.

[stemis] 19/1/2024 12:15

That's not really a fair comparison though. Since it was last £1 the company have 16% more shares to spread the value over and the company has gone from $117m of cash to net debt (probably understated) of $5m. Adjusting for those, the comparison is 27p v 69p. That doesn't take account of the dilutive impact of the warrants issued since then.

[nigelpm] 19/1/2024 11:10

I agree Taurus - but there's a very material difference in market cap when it was at £1 (pre equity raise) vs. now at 27p (post equity raise)

[taurusthebear] 19/1/2024 11:04

ashkv - it's theoretically undervalued, dependent on future POO, Akatara going smoothly, no more higher de-commissioning costs etc. etc. etc.

But that argument could also have been used when it was a quid. Numbers can be as dangerous as they can be compelling. Too many unknowns, in many investors minds, equates to higher risk rather than better value.

[nigelpm] 19/1/2024 10:54

Order book in auction looking much stronger - would expect near term move up now.

[ashkv] 19/1/2024 10:36

Insight analysis etc welcome on all boards....however...

The below is "Twaddle"

"This is heading down. Until it heads up. No doubt it will prove a lucrative investment... at some time."

Oh great market timer... Is it undervalued, overvalued, fairly valued???

TaurusTheBear19 Jan '24 - 10:09 - 20741 of 20741
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The fact that anyone who offers a view different to ashkv is talking "twaddle" tells you all you need to know.

And underlines the pitfalls of BBs.

[taurusthebear] 19/1/2024 10:09

The fact that anyone who offers a view different to ashkv is talking "twaddle" tells you all you need to know.

And underlines the pitfalls of BBs.

[tom111] 18/1/2024 19:51

Yes and the last trade of the day was a buy of 400.000

[ashkv] 18/1/2024 18:43

0.34% of JSE outstanding shares traded on 18 Jan 24.

It has been an elevated week of trading volume for JSE - a number of Buys towards the end of the trading day.

# Trades 91
Vol. Sold 701,448
Sold Value £189.25k
Vol. Bought 1,117,876
Bought Value £302.87k

[s34icknote] 18/1/2024 16:31

Lots of late trading today ?

[ashkv] 18/1/2024 10:56

Whatever you say chief...

I bought more at 35p despite having an average in the low 60s prior to the 35p down buy...

Am not happy with the added costs for 2024 for Stag and Montara... However, share price reaction has been very harsh....

Please get your facts straight...

Also sorry about JSE loss if you are indeed a holder.. it would have been the case for the vast majority of AIM or even NYSE oilies - given the few exceptions such as AET....

Look where the once mighty Kistos is at today.... It is a harsh harsh market at the moment...

pughman18 Jan '24 - 10:41 - 20735 of 20735
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Ashkv, you've been peddling the same cobblers for months, you're beyond hope.

[pughman] 18/1/2024 10:41

Ashkv, you've been peddling the same cobblers for months, you're beyond hope.

[nigelpm] 18/1/2024 10:21

Yup - very fair Stemis.

[taurusthebear] 18/1/2024 09:54

t_headder and SteMis articulated my sentiments.

Why would most investors be interested, in the current market, in an unreliable small oiler whose Bulls are endlessly extolling by going through complex arithmetical calculations that may or may not prove accurate.

If the share prices of simple, progressive oil companies with reliable annual production increases are not rising, no amount of pumping by the likes of ashkv will change matters.

This is heading down. Until it heads up. No doubt it will prove a lucrative investment... at some time.

[ashkv] 18/1/2024 09:48

Winnet concur - JSE management had better not be given any bonuses as that will be salt on investor wounds...

Sentiment in O&G is dire - similar to JSE holdings that have had positive news I3E, AXL etc are within close range of 52 week lows...

[winnet] 18/1/2024 09:45

Nigel - if your remark was directed at me, I am always reviewing all my positions, continually. In this case, I will be holding JSE for at least another year, but I won't be buying any more without changes being made...

Don't confuse my frustration with capitulation.

[ashkv] 18/1/2024 09:43

Good news has been entirely overlooked...

I too am aggrieved by JSE management as I was of mind that why there was no update on Montara remediation until the recent RNS? Progress with tanks etc?

JSE management should have been upfront in 2023 post hiring the surveyor and not started 2024 on a sour Montara/Stag note. PB needs to learn that he is no demi-god who can outsmart the market.

Also I am wary of the RBL redetermination so will not add until this is sorted out. JSE post Montara mishaps has scored many self goals with the RBL linked equity financing being the most severe and avoidable. Along with the Thai gas asset acquisition in early 2023 when financing was required for Akatara - inexplicable!!!

PB has to take the responsibility for these strategic blunders...

CFO's competence concerns me so until RBL is sorted I believe share price will overcompensate for the same.

Once RBL is sorted and as long as Akatara is going to plan I will double my holding - if the share price is at such super depressed levels.

MT can you speak as to Akatara returns? I was reviewing the same and to me it appears not lucrative for the USD150-200mn Capex based on the return profile unless further reserves unlocked? And more so not lucrative given the expensive equity raise arising from the RBL to finance Akatara.

Lets hope JSE conjures up a deal such as the recent HBR deal!!! PB needs to put or shut-up... Perhaps a farm-in / progress with the significant undeveloped Vietnam gas field.

JSE is a solid hold for me and I would be thrilled if my average was 27p...

SteMiS18 Jan '24 - 07:50 - 20725 of 20726
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For sure Stemis. Is it worth a 25% fall on that RNS though? That's the simple way of looking at.

I think the fall is just a reflection of that, once again JSE has managed to come up with some bad news to offset the potential recovery from the last set of bad news. Lots of holders on here pointing to potential production figures for 2024 and what that would do to the profitability. The market is basically saying 'we've been here before so until they've actually delivered them, we're not interested'. So you have a share price driven by some holders giving up hope and potential new holders not seeing any point in buying at the moment (against a backdrop of a general market that is neither interested in oil nor interested in small companies...so small oil companies are a particular tough sell)

[ashkv] 18/1/2024 09:30

Other than Montara and Stag plus development asset Akatara the other assets have been picked up in the past two years.

Penmal with infilling drilling is no longer late stage so to say as new substantial 2p reserves are soon to be classified so given the spectacular late 2023 infill drill success. Also Penmal benefits from having substantial decom expenses already funded.

CWLH are low decline assets and the purchases within the past 18 months were for close to USD 200mn. JSE hopes to employ their expertise on the same to further enhance solid and stable prodution. Jefferies analyst was pleased with the latest CWLH acquisition as it very well fits into what JSE aspires to be!!!
in

Thailand - solid production from a 10% stake in a mid life gas field plus 20% in an even more enticing potential gas development.

e4317 Jan '24 - 19:52 - 20721 of 20725
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Winnet,I share most of your sentiments.
Montara might not be totally worthless to JSE going forward but I think it would be extremely hard to get a third party to pay anything for it in an attempted sale.
Apart from Akatara(a more conventional development project) the rest of Jadestone's assets are late stage,the raison d'etre being JSE has the knowledge and experience to efficiently manage them to extract a good net return.
ie ,JSE management skills are supposed to make the plc worth more than the sum of its parts.

[stemis] 18/1/2024 07:50

For sure Stemis. Is it worth a 25% fall on that RNS though? That's the simple way of looking at.

I think the fall is just a reflection of that, once again JSE has managed to come up with some bad news to offset the potential recovery from the last set of bad news. Lots of holders on here pointing to potential production figures for 2024 and what that would do to the profitability. The market is basically saying 'we've been here before so until they've actually delivered them, we're not interested'. So you have a share price driven by some holders giving up hope and potential new holders not seeing any point in buying at the moment (against a backdrop of a general market that is neither interested in oil nor interested in small companies...so small oil companies are a particular tough sell)

[mount teide] 17/1/2024 22:32

From first oil Montara'a decline rate has been very modest, principally because it was expected to commence production at 28,000 - 35,000bopd of light, low sulphur crude but, the owner PTTEP (Thai National Oil & Gas Company) elected to save money on the upfront development costs, and so cut the number of initial production wells by 50%.

This resulted in first production peaking at circa 14,000 - 15,000bopd ...... nearly a decade later in 2019/20, and with just one infill well drilled on the field(by Jadestone), Montara's production was still in the 9,000 bopd - 10,000 bopd range with field uptime in the mid 80% range, up from under 70% under PTTEP's troubled operatorship.

The Montara Oil Field is comprised of a thin oil reservoir under a very large gas cap - it is considered by Shell, the developer of the Crux Nat Gas project(an important backfill facility for the existing Prelude FLNG facility) - as having the size and commercial potential for tying back to the Crux Nat Gas field.

[nigelpm] 17/1/2024 21:29

Sounds like you should probably sell up and move on..never easy but probably the right thing for you do it.

[pughman] 17/1/2024 21:18

I got it wrong and sit on a substantial paper loss. With Montara and Stag falling off a cliff the guts of the business have been ripped out and now hopes rest on Akatara production within 6 months and PM, but my hunch is that the present 7000 will quickly decline. The warning sign I didn't heed was Maari, it took 3 years to walk away from a deal that clearly wasn't going to happen after 2. Blakeley made a lot of money in his previous company, but that business model has proved to be not fit for purpose with JSE, with rapidly escalating decommissioning costs and hit and miss infills. As for Blakeley taking a pay cut, if he doesn't get another performance bonus for 23 I'll be gobsmacked.