Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[winnet] 17/1/2024 08:35

Dunno I agree with you Nigel, I'm not laughing...

[nigelpm] 17/1/2024 08:28

It makes no sense. UK inflation has absolutely no bearing on JSE - funny to watch but stupid.

[banksy] 17/1/2024 08:23

Heading for previous lows. Surreal

[t_headder] 16/1/2024 21:49

Ahh, missed the abandonment payment & didn't fancy criss-crossing reports for g&a, tax durastictions etc. So, carbon taxes were assessed, it seems earnings should be negative to the tune of maybe 20M$, plus taxes.I think they should insure & have a fire or something at stag but hey ho.https://www.jadestone-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230919-JSE-H1-2023-results-presentation-vF.pdf---on page 9 here cash YE 2023 is supposed to be -100m$, that's in contradiction to their recent update but I expect it's because of deferred payments or something. Still expecting net cash position around £80m for YE 2025 if they don't spend it in advance. I'd like to know their projected roce %age calculations per year on their purchases but will probably save that for the weekend.

[bradvert] 16/1/2024 20:57

If you include the $77m abandonment payment and $30m carbon taxes mentioned in the guidance then you're down to zero.Take into account the $40m+ G&A not mentioned in the guidance and you're negative.That's what's not to like..

[bradvert] 16/1/2024 19:45

Or Livermore come to that.. ?https://twitter.com/LivermoreOps/status/1745612890281738711(he has been known to post on this board on occasion)

[t_headder] 16/1/2024 19:38

Bit of a rough calc, I got around 500m$ revenue forecast for 2024 using 75$ bwent (50% hedged) plus 6 months of akatara. So assuming 100m$ is left after guidance costs, what's not to like?

[winnet] 16/1/2024 19:12

I do wonder what Tyrus are thinking......

--

Possibly the same as me!!

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 18:07

Hopefully that they can find a buyer north of 65p for JSE :)

Would make sense for Enquest, Serica, Neptune etc

yasX16 Jan '24 - 17:46 - 20683 of 20685
0 3 0
I do wonder what Tyrus are thinking......

[king suarez] 16/1/2024 18:07

Thanks all. Bit of an emotional outburst earlier due to market frustrations (not just JSE!). I need to take a proper look at the presentation later. I feel this has to be near capitulation price atm..

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 17:58

rimau1 VLE does seem insanely cheap.

MT/others any insight as to why VLE is so cheap? Any factors or even more severe mispricing as compared to JSE's plight?

So much value in the sector...

And to think TLW, highly leveraged with assets in banana republics and tax claims in arbitration has an EV/Barrel including Decom around US$ 50,000 per boe at a share price of 33p.

ITH in super high tax UK has an EV/Barrel including Decom of US$60,000 per boe at a share price of 142p...

Relative pricing doesn't appear consistent even accounting for variables....

[pughman] 16/1/2024 17:58

Baillie Gifford sold no shares last month, their holding remains at 7.2%.

[yasx] 16/1/2024 17:46

I do wonder what Tyrus are thinking......

[rimau1] 16/1/2024 17:39

IMO as another regional SE Asia producer VLE on a broadly similar marketcap and production profile to JSE is much cheaper with net cash of $150m and a $220m market cap and far less operational risk. VLE today is where i thought JSE would be 12 months ago.

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 17:33

Per my calcs 66% of the 2024 lower Opex figure can be attributed to the oil assets CWLH (including 2nd CWLH acquisition) 4,200-5,000 boe/d and Penmal 5,000-7,000 boe/d. Akatara 6,000 boe/d in regular production only from late Q2 2024 per guidance, Sphorm 1,100 - 1,500 boe/d..

Given CWLH recent acquisition is forecast to pay off its close to US$100mn abandonment costs in 2024 - one can estimate how much the prior acquired similar CWLH ownership stake is forecast to generate in profit...

Moreover, Penmal assets infil drilling success (Current production 7,000 boe/d 100% to JSE) has been a very welcome dose of good news for JSE.... That appears to be entirely overlooked by the market :(

As MT conveyed - spike in Opex for Stag and Montara in 2024 to set right the mismanagement of the early years of JSE operatorship.

Reassuring that production should continue if any Montara tank issues come to fore given a dedicated shuttle anchored to Montara....

[1ajm] 16/1/2024 16:49

Cheers Ash-
The shares I bought in the mid 20's were after montara shut in for the 2nd time with a view it wasn't a serious problem, but they were only a top up unfortunately bringing my average down. imagine simply entering at 25p

MT-
Thanks for the insight, that is a good sign also with DNV. they have opex $33.5/boe I think, again averaging down by mixing the akatara gas opex in with their oil assets. It's a bit misleading, as the revenue weighting isn't even.

King Suarez-
Yes it's annoying, slide 7 is almost laughable in the presentation. Like I said above it's misleading when the revenue value of comparable gas boe and oil boe are so different. They would maybe argue that profits per boe are closer but it makes working revenue/profit out a bit confusing.


If someone used slide 7 alone to work out financials how out would they be?

[bradvert] 16/1/2024 16:49

KS, Actually they did. The non Stag/Montara assets will have an opex of around $12 per barrel this year.This was helpfully provided on page 7 of yesterday's presentation.

[dunderheed] 16/1/2024 16:46

Yes KS I follow your points exactly and was concerned regarding obfuscation as well, because we also held other companies where at best that has happened (!) and whereas the experience profile significantly greater here, I have lost trust in the CFO and become paranoid that the full management team could be becoming similar to "elsewhere" as well!
Hopefully very wrong as there is very good diversification to fall back on whilst the weaker assets become irrelevant.
IMHO.

[king suarez] 16/1/2024 16:07

I feel that JSE quoting an opex/boe is farily meaningless as we are mixing oil, gas and NGLs - the lower opex/boe of the gas developments skew the metric downwards. JSE management can say, "Look y-on-y we've lowered OPEX per barrel aren't we efficient?" er no, your costs have gone up for the assets you have been managing, you've just acquired some lower cost and lower revenue/boe gas assets to dilute the opex/boe and offset this!

The reality is that Stag and Montara profitability has been revised downwards due to far higher costs (c$60/bbl?!) and we don't have a separate, clearly indentifiable, opex and revenue/boe metric for the 'non-Montara/Stag' assets to work out their respective profitability - at least not without some work to manually calculate (converting gas price/mmcf into boe etc).

Whether deliberate obfuscation or otherwise, it is annoying making things harder than neccessary to evaluate true value - anyone else feel the same?

[mount teide] 16/1/2024 15:12

1AJM - 'Do you believe JSE have changed their mindset on how they are going to operate and maintain their assets?'

With reference to the Montara Venture FPSO, this has been forced on them - Australian regulator NOPSEMA instructed Jadestone to appoint a high quality Classification Society surveyor to oversee the inspection and maintenance regime and, to assist JSE's onboard team to develop the future standard required to ensure the FPSO can be safely and efficiently operated through to the end of its commercial life.

That Jadestone appointed a DNV surveyor to carry out this role speaks highly as to their determination to put in place a much better inspection and maintenance regime - as DNV are one of the world's leading Classification Societies, and used by many of the leading shipping companies, as a result of their very strict interpretation of the rules and the high standards of compliance they expect from the ship owners who appoint them.

If you charter a ship that has the likes of DNV or Lloyd's Register as the Classification Society, you can rest assured it will have been inspected and maintained to a very high standard - such ships invariably command a premium charter rate. The likes of Shell and BP only charter ships with such provenance.

By 2025, Montara's current $60 opex/bbl should experience a step change drop, since the circa $6 opex/bbl shuttle tanker charter cost will fall away, as will most of the hefty FPSO inspection and maintenance costs incurred in 2024 to bring the remaining sea water ballast and cargo tanks back into an operational condition.

AIMHO/DYOR


Edit: Valeura Energy has given opex/bbl guidance for 2024 of $26. JSE's opex/bbl at $33.5 mid point is fairly reasonable by comparison considering it includes elevated contributions from Montara and Stag.

[sga64] 16/1/2024 15:02

Remember the core of PB and C Suite expertise is acquisition of O&G assets, so against the back drop of an underwhelming update if they can secure 1 or 2 decent transactions in 2024 (which we know they can) then things could improve considerably.

[1ajm] 16/1/2024 13:19

It would appear that way. Again the COO might feel the need for different actions/costs.

They should have RBL answers, akatara nearly online, hopefully four more months of production and a bit more regained trust by the time 2023 FY financials are released if same time as last year.

H1 $59mn loss iirc
H2 thoughts? decent end of year sales but problems still until september.

Things going right they can probably make 2024 update and hopefully successes compensate a little for the 2023 results. I would still expect it to be rough on the share price so will probably wait till then to top up or not.

JSE have now hopefully woken up to the reality in costs of operating these old assets. I have called them greedy for their old approach in recent weeks/months and maybe this is the reality of that and cost of correcting the poor decisions that MT pointed out.

Again all of this is still damage recovery, not a good place to be.

Will be interesting if they go for more gas acquisitions with lower revenue but higher margins after all this.

I am a bit apprehensive over the large ($200mn? cant remember exactly) upfront investment in Akatara paying off, I need to look again at what they expect the ROI to be and costs of maintaining production levels.

I did contemplate selling some shares that I picked up in the mid 20's when I needed about 20 minutes to come up with the positive points in my post after reeling off the negatives with no problems. But I've held, if I regret that or not we shall find out. I'm aware that with hindsight I should have sold out the second montara problems started, we live and learn.

Getting above 50p like those forecasters predict soon would be a dream it's just difficult to see without positive material changes. Do they offer comprehensive reasoning for their forecasts?

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 12:06

Don't the added costs to maintain the assets / aggressive preventive maintenance convey that JSE have imbibed the hard lessons?

Also yesterday's update mentioned hiring on COO is on track - to micromanage the operational aspects of JSE's 6 assets in multiple jurisdictions...

1AJM16 Jan '24 - 10:22 - 20669 of 20671
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I agree with what you are say MT. Interesting that thai ended up where JSE now are.

Do you believe JSE have changed their mindset on how they are going to operate and maintain their assets?

Still need to do more with regards to the team having the proper operational expertise?