Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 12:59

From 1AJM

In 2022 Stag averaged a premium of $22 to Brent not a small premium of "$5" Doesn't such subterfuge discount credibility on all else!!!

Assuming $20 premium for 2023 therefore $75 + $20 at 3,000 Boe/d average production = USD 104 million guidance for 2024 at $75 Brent!!!

1AJM15 Jan '24 - 11:59 - 20618 of 20620
Stag -
Stag, 3,500bbls/d @ $80 (small premium) is $102mn revenue with $60-70mn a year operating costs. Are there CAPEX costs to go on top of this?

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 12:53

20-23,000 Production Guidance Broken Down Per 15 Jan 24 JSE Presentation Plus Call

Montara (JSE 100%) Per presentation 2024 Guidance 5,000-6,000 Boe/d Crude taking into account downtime and natural declines per call. Current production is 7,000 boe/d per today's call.

Akatara (JSE 100%) Guidance gas production ???

CWLH (JSE 33.33% post completion Q1 24)-> ??Guidance?? CWLH Production averaged 30,000 Boe/d Crude in Q4 2023 per call(5m:30s to 5m:50s) ?? JSE 33.33% = 10,000 Boe/d??
[Appreciate some CWLH production is Gas given to Woodside for free. However, per Another Oil and Gas report on JSE - Okha platform share of production to Woodside from CWLH (50% Woodside) comprising Australian Oil was 13k Boe/d in Sep 2023?]

Penmal (JSE 100%)-> Current 7,000 Boe/d Crude Net to JSE)

Stag (JSE 100%) -> 2,000 - 3,000 Boe/d Crude sold at a premium of $22 relative to Brent price in 2022.

Sinphuhorm (9.52%) -> 1,500 Boe/d Dry gas Guidance per 15 Jan 2024 Call

[kaos3] 15/1/2024 12:37

1AJM - great job. thank you

i have 2 Qs.

can Montara FPSO be reused elsewhere when Montara is depleted. we are investing quite some money into it

RBL - can currenies have impact on what asset is given as assurance. like getting paid in the same currency as the capital outlay ...matching both ... Atakara being the case. less risk, cheaper ... eg more appropriate

[1ajm] 15/1/2024 11:59

Best case scenario 2024 outlook...I know my haters on this thread are going to go into bombardment reply mode but please try give a reasonable response, even thought it will inevitably be disagreement.

JSE getting 2023 year end net debt as low as $5mn is good. Nicely timed liftings but interesting mentioning 'optimisation of working capital' does this just mean they delayed costs into 2024?

20,000-23,000boe/d 2024 outlook is very disappointing. Akatara gas seems to be replacing more decline in current oil production than I expected.

Operating costs -
$300mn essentially, it sounds painfully high.

Capital expenditure -
$80-110mn + $77m in CWLH abandonment funds

Revenue -
$550mn @ $75 oil?


Montara -
Montara production averages approximately 5,000-6,000 bbls/d during 2024...$120mn operating costs in 2024, $95mn per year outlook, $150mn revenue @ $75 oil with $120mn costs. I think this year Montara just running smoothly is the target.

Stag -
Stag, 3,500bbls/d @ $80 (small premium) is $102mn revenue with $60-70mn a year operating costs. Are there CAPEX costs to go on top of this?

That's 8,500-9,500bbl/s in those two assets, This plan is far greater than a plan that involves NOPSEMA directives.


PM323 -
I could do with some clarification to why they are saying gross rates of 7,000bbl/d from the drilling campaign. I believe before it was gross rate of 7,500 for the first three wells and 3,500 for the fourth well = 11,000bbl/d gross with JSE getting net 7,000bbls/d

CWLH -
Not sure I'll ever agree on the timing of this acquisition. Or talk of using RBL to cover some of the abandonment fund.

RBL -
No surprise they are going to change it in march, trying to include CWLH and Akatara as assets to negate the poor outlook/lower values on Montara and stag. Maybe this avoids a lower borrowing capacity. They do as of right now at least have cash to cover changes in March. I didn't realise they had drawn so much of it.

Akatara -
Akatara is really going to need to perform on its higher margin Gas this year. It has a lot of carrying JSE to do in H2. The 'royalties' that kick in after a few years are large.

$33.5bbl OPEX costs sounds way better than it feels.


JSE please do not use your cash before March and certainly don't sink it into an abandonment fund for 15 years away.

Personally I had a better outlook on JSE before this update. But this is JSE business model so maybe I should have expected this, they really need oil to be higher.

I'm not expecting much profit from JSE in 2024 and hope they can make a good acquisition in H2 that maybe isn't as old or maybe gas.

To end on a positive note, This does look a whole look better than how 2023 turned out.

[sga64] 15/1/2024 11:38

Spot on, not PBs fault this trades for 30p. Has his bonus been approved?

[croasdalelfc] 15/1/2024 11:14

From webcast:7000 bopd from Montara atm.CLWH 2 acquisition due to close very soon - one approval arrived today. The reduced expenditure for decomm will be the final payment end 2024 rather than one of first two which are covered by oil sales .Next acquisition likely to be gas imo - probably another chunk of Sing with its fixed GSA and cash flow - acquisition cost covered by backdating and increased RBL on completion

[nigelpm] 15/1/2024 10:00

I think folk are a touch hard on Blakeley - some of the acquisitions and development over the past few years is intrinsically linked to his relationships and work - the business does now need to deliver on this and the share price will follow.

[winnet] 15/1/2024 09:57

Spending a few million decommissioning Blakeley would be money well spent.

---

lol

[pughman] 15/1/2024 09:48

Spending a few million decommissioning Blakeley would be money well spent.

[xxnjr] 15/1/2024 09:42

Blakeley does tend to waffle on.....
maybe we could do with someone a bit more dynamic?

[s34icknote] 15/1/2024 09:24

May be a serica takeover target at 64p ? Judging by the over reaction on the market .The share price will stagnate and this will be taken out !

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 09:14

Nonetheless overall opex per Barrel guided to be well down with production increase from low Opex CWLH and Akatara fields!!!

How undervalued is JSE!!!

INSANE!!!

$222,155,833 ENTERPRISE VALUE (EV=MARKET CAP + DEBT - CASH) FOR 23,000 Boe/d of production!!!

pughman15 Jan '24 - 08:53 - 20607 of 20608
0 2 0
$70m operating costs for Stag in 24, with under 3,000bpd, ain't great.

[nigelpm] 15/1/2024 09:12

I think the market has focused too much on the challenges here. We'll see.

[nigelpm] 15/1/2024 09:11

Stag additional opex explained in the presentation.

[pughman] 15/1/2024 08:53

$70m operating costs for Stag in 24, with under 3,000bpd, ain't great.

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 08:28

Don't the share price reaction -> Slightly higher costs on Montara and Stag plus an uber conservative production guidance for 2024.

Very pleased JSE Balance Sheet is looking solid!!!

NONETHELESS JADESTONE ENERGY REMAINS IMMENSELY UNDERVALUED!!!



JSE Share Price: 31.50p
Brent: $78.25
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 50.00%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -66.20%
Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017
GBPUSD: 1.2750
Jadestone 2024 Production Mid-Guidance (20,000-23,000 Boe/d): 21,500
Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): 13,800
Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): 20,000
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 31 Dec 2023: $157,000,000
Cash (USD) 31 Dec 2023: $152,000,000
Net Debt (USD) 31 Dec 2023 : -$5,000,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $78,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £170,318,300
Market Cap (USD): $217,155,833
ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $222,155,833
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average from 1 Jan 23 to 4 Dec 23 (Montara Offline Q1 2023): $16,098
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Mid Guidance Production 21,500 Boe/d $10,333
EV/Barrel(USD) -> Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): $11,108
EV/Barrel(USD) 2023 Actual Average Production: $16,098
Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE Current Production + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf Acquisition: $39,841
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000
EV/2P: $3.43
Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 18 Dec 23: 75.25p
% Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 138.89%

[impossible123] 15/1/2024 08:21

When a company RNS does not start with "...please to announce/inform..." the share share price can only go one way ie downward. As always, those with inside info were able to sell in the last couple of trading days.

[sleveen] 15/1/2024 08:18

How will the Montara and Stag revelations affect the RBL.

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 08:15

What is the outlook for Vietnam development?
Any prospect of shareholder returns in 2024 - Buybacks and Dividend?
Does company management think a bonus is justified given 2023 share price and operational performance?

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 08:14

My questions for the Jadetone Energy Webcast?

What is the breakdown of production average of 20,000 boe/d over the past 4 weeks?
What is the asset based breakdown for 2024 production guidance?
What is the status of Montara remediation - tanks etc?
What has been the operational cost for Stag and Montara is 2023 and also 2022?
Details about Montara Gas development?
With the Montara well in Q4 2024 - what is the predicted exit production?
Has the company considered putting itself up for sale?
What Carbon taxes is JSE referring to? Is this a new tax in Australia?

[thedudie] 15/1/2024 07:49

They suggest a significant drop in trust fund contribution is required for the 2nd CWLH acquisition.

Other cash expenditure: Expected to total c.US$77 million on a net basis, primarily reflecting the previously announced CWLH 2 acquisition abandonment funding payments. These are expected to be largely funded through revenues from the next two liftings attributable to the CWLH 2 interest, and are now expected to be a lesser amount than the US$102 million announced in November 2023.

[sleveen] 15/1/2024 07:48

Not quite the update I was expecting, may help to explain the slow share price progress?

[e43] 15/1/2024 07:40

Financial position better than I expected at year end,that and good production and
guidance show the good potential if no more major mishaps ,with rising costs and age issues running offshore fields keeping expectations in check

[nigelpm] 15/1/2024 07:29

A whole series of positives but with the difficult news on stag and montara. Not surprised in many ways and mainly a balance sheet impact but unhelpful nonetheless.

[pughman] 15/1/2024 07:27

Opex costs guidance for 24, $33.50 a barrel, mainly due to Montara and Stag. Current production close to 20,000boe/d. Another year of hard graft ahead for shareholders.