Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 14:28

Good, thanks. I plan to hold until I can put the Queen's Grill back on the holiday list rather than self catering in Corfu.

[mount teide] 10/2/2024 13:25

Yes - increased the family holding over the last 3 months to 1.47m at an average of circa 39p.

The plan is to hold for a further 2-3 years, as I think with the huge problems the renewable sectors have now run into and are likely to experience for the foreseeable future, will strongly support oil demand, price and the wider sector.

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 13:14

Do you still hold?

[mount teide] 10/2/2024 13:10

The fundamentals changed after 3 years with respect to the operating performance of Montara Venture, news of which was very poorly communicated by the management.

Additionally, we had to absorb the huge body blow of the well heeled, left wing, woke Government of NZ deliberately preventing us from completing the brilliant Maari deal, which on completion would have seen JSE pick up a high quality asset free of charge, plus a very large cheque after paying off the headline price, from the financial benefit accrued by the deal from the effective economic date.

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 12:42

Respect what you say about valuation tripling in three years post IPO but for those of us on a 5-8 year time frame I'd ask what the hell use is that?Nowhere in the annals or other books of advice about long term holding is it preached, yea, verily thou shalt hold for three years and not a day longer because if you do it'll disappear down the toilet.

[mount teide] 10/2/2024 12:27

npm - 'To be fair I'm seeing this across lots of ADVFN boards - complete and utter desperation and capitulation - probably means the outlook for those stocks is good.'

With respect to O&G stocks, that's the sentiment I'm picking up too.

JSE's latest drop is almost certain the result of mm's being able to position themselves cheaply in a market with very poor sentiment, to take advantage of the guided news expected in mid Feb of completion of the deal to acquire a second tranche of the CWLH asset.

[mount teide] 10/2/2024 12:14

Montara - JSE got the opex/bbl at Montara down to circa $20 at 9,000 bopd within 12-18 months of taking over the asset - from $50-60/bbl at circa $6-7,000 bopd prior to compilation of the deal.

The management need to explain how at a guided average production of 5,500 bopd for 2024, Montara's opex/bbl is back up to $60.

When Montara's Opex/bbl was $20 from production averaging circa 9,000 bopd, the operating costs were circa $65m/year. In 2024, Montara'a operating costs are being guided at an average of $120m for an average production of 5,500 bopd - that's $120m a year.

$55m a year increase (of which $14m is for charter of the shuttle tanker) - the additional $41m would have comfortably covered the cost of the work required by Nopsema on the Montara Venture being carried out in a SE Asian Shipyard, in a scenario where the field would probably have been off production for a maximum of 6 months.

Strongly suggests that the sky high cost of a shuttle tanker in permanent attendance, together with the use of a small team of extremely expensive Australian ship maintenance contractors, on very highly remunerated employment contracts, particularly with respect to their annual leave entitlement, operating with the constraint of very limited accommodation available onboard Montara Venture, has been mostly responsible for the high cost and protracted remediation of the issues affecting Montara Venture since June 2022.....and the near comedic fire fighting of the financial issues that subsequently arose from the loss of such a large amount of high value production/cash flow over such a protracted period of time.

Dont forget it was Paul Blakeley who rightly said in 2020 that after reducing Montara's opex/bb to $20, that the asset would be Jadestone's 'Cash Cow' for the coming decade - however, the very poor management since of the inspection, maintenance and operation of the Montara Venture has completely destroyed the credibility of that well supported, reasonable claim at the time.

In 2025, the operating costs are guided to drop by $25m (the annual cost of the charter of the shuttle tanker would account for circa $17.5m of this) to $95m. Suggesting, that at say an average production of say 5,000 bopd, the opex/bbl would be circa $52.


Stag - Operating costs guided at $70m for 2024. For an average of 2,500 bopd, this would suggest an opex/bbl of $77! Dropping to $66/bbl in 2025 at the guided $60m annual operating cost and same production.

The additional cost of the shuttle tanker in permanent attendance over having an FPSO over the field was $16m in 2024 - this arrangement has had the effect of lifting annual opex by $17.5 bbl.

The average cost of time chartering a modern ECO LR2 oil tanker of 1,000,000 bbls cargo capacity in 2023 was $38-40,000/day - it appears Jadestone paid at least $38,300/day for the tanker standing by at Montara, and $43,835 a day for the tanker currently at the Stag field. Both of these tankers have a significantly smaller cargo capacity than a LR2 tanker, and I suspect age profile too, and so are likely to have commanded a charter rate around $10,000/day less.


AIMHO/DYOR

[ptolemy] 10/2/2024 11:46

I suspect Blakeley is due to retire soon. Does this factor into an assessment of JSE?

[nigelpm] 10/2/2024 11:42

To be fair I'm seeing this across lots of ADVFN boards - complete and utter desperation and capitulation - probably means the outlook for those stocks is good.

[mount teide] 10/2/2024 11:07

FB - JSE did more than triple in valuation within 3 years of the IPO - strongly suggesting the pre-investment research (and post) was sound. The issues ththe management has since encountered are overwhelmingly connected to the extremely poor inspection, maintenance and operating performance of the FPSO Montara Venture.

[pughman] 10/2/2024 11:00

You've been here 5 years, what's your appraisal of where JSE is today

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 10:37

Course he hasn't. His is the Welsh model: stand around and moan.

[nigelpm] 10/2/2024 10:28

You think you've got a better idea than Tyrus and the recent investors that put money in at 45p?

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 09:29

Bat not vat

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 09:29

MT get your analytical vat out and start knocking some of the JSE doommongers over the pavilion. I've been here five years, sos the wife and we've made nowt.

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 09:26

Well all that says to me is that as usual they are robbing somebody perceived to be rich to pay for bribes in their marginal areas. It does not make allowance for the fact that many UKCS focussed o&g companies are hardly making any profit nowadays due to the initial imposition of this tax when gas was hitting a fiver a therm. Its currently 65p a therm and I don't expect it to increase as summer comes.It might tempt somebody with high levels of cash currently UKCS focussed to look for acquisitions is areas of the world with a less confiscatory tax regime, somewhere first world maybe, sorry we are supposed to be first world aren't we, I'm thinking Australia Pacific region not including the Kiwi madhouse of course.

[mount teide] 10/2/2024 09:19

'From this point it's a multi-year play'

Long equity market history and its most successful investors will tell you that virtually all equity investing is a multi year play(3-5 years) - unless you're in receipt of and make illegal use of inside information. Any shorter 'investment' duration is largely gambling!

It's why circa 96% of short term traders lose money according to the internal records one of the City's most successful Sprteadbet and CFD survice providers. The biggest short, medium and long term challenge to their business model is to find sufficient new clients to replace those leaving, as a result of being cleaned out through 'over-trading'.

[xxnjr] 10/2/2024 09:06

slightly off-topic but maybe of interest "Labour has performed another green U-turn by dropping plans to backdate its £11 billion windfall tax raid on oil and gas giants, the Telegraph can reveal. Sir Keir Starmer had pledged to hit energy firms with a surcharge on their profits from the first four months of 2022, raising an extra £2.6 billion....."

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 08:44

Don't bother

[nigelpm] 09/2/2024 20:37

And on valuation - £125m market cap is only 30% higher than the $117m spent on capex in FY23.

Food for thought...

[nigelpm] 09/2/2024 20:22

On YasX's points:

1) Always possible - it's an Oil/Gas business.

2) He must act in all shareholders' interests. It's as simple as that. That doesn't preclude Tyrus from sticking in a cheeky bid at 50p of course.

[fardels bear] 09/2/2024 19:29

I think these two must be Daily Express pensioner frightening weather report writers, Tom.