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JSE Jadestone Energy Plc

26.20
0.95 (3.76%)
05 Dec 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Jadestone Energy Plc LSE:JSE London Ordinary Share GB00BLR71299 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.95 3.76% 26.20 26.00 27.00 27.25 24.90 25.00 2,448,381 16:35:07
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs 323.28M -91.27M -0.1688 -1.57 136.56M
Jadestone Energy Plc is listed in the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker JSE. The last closing price for Jadestone Energy was 25.25p. Over the last year, Jadestone Energy shares have traded in a share price range of 23.00p to 39.00p.

Jadestone Energy currently has 540,817,144 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Jadestone Energy is £136.56 million. Jadestone Energy has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -1.57.

Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

Showing 20726 to 20748 of 23000 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
17/1/2024
12:35
Is this being oversold?
neo26
17/1/2024
11:08
Webinar documents guides Stag at 2,000 - 3,000 boe/d Page 4 of below presentation

Page 5 of the same presentation mentions 5 workovers planned for Stag (to maintain
/enhance production)

I have included guidance were specified in the presentation and were not specified have used last reported quarterly production. This is conservative as for example Montara is currently producing 7,000 boe/d and per CEO PB CWLH is currently producing 30,000 boe/d for full 100% share of which JSE has 33.33%



pughman17 Jan '24 - 11:03 - 20706 of 20707
0 0 0
From Monday's RNS and call, Stag is currently producing at circa 2,200boe/d. Barely 12 months since the $60m infills, Stag needs $100 oil+ premium, otherwise it's standing still at best.

ashkv
17/1/2024
11:05
2024 Gross Profit Estimate at $75 Brent and Production Mid-Guidance

Revenue $583 million
- Opex $270 million
- Carbon Tax/Royalties $30 million
- Capex $90 million
- Admin Costs $35 million
- Other Costs $20 million
- Finance costs $20 million
- CWLH Decommissioning One Time Payment as term of 2nd CWLH acquisition $77 million
- Tax $40 million
= Profit US 1 million

Top range of guidance and $80 Brent will approximately add US$90 million to the bottom line!!!

I expect JSE to handily beat the low ball top range of guidance as they did for revised 2023 production guidance!!!

Every $1 increase in Brent above $75 adjusting for hedged barrels and fixed price gas will result in additional $4,148,590 revenue / gross profit addition if Brent averages above $75

ashkv
17/1/2024
11:03
From Monday's RNS and call, Stag is currently producing at circa 2,200boe/d. Barely 12 months since the $60m infills, Stag needs $100 oil+ premium, otherwise it's standing still at best.
pughman
17/1/2024
10:42
From JSE HY 2023 Results ->

As required by the RBL facility, at 30 June 2023, the Group had entered into oil price swap contracts for 4.2 mmbbls, representing approximately 78% of the required hedging volumes, at a weighted average price of US$70.29/bbl. The hedging programme was subsequently completed in July 2023, with 5.5 mmbbls hedged over the Q4 2023 to Q3 2025 period at an overall weighted average price of US$70.57/bbl;

THE ABOVE TWO YEAR PERIOD HAS 5.5 million barrels hedge at $70.59 per Barrel
Or Daily Hedged Production Volume 7,534 at $70.59

Annual loss if Brent at $75 = 7,534 Boe/d * ($75 - $70.59) = $12,127,500

Therefore estimated revenue for Jadestone at $75 assuming premiums still apply adjusting for 7,534 boe/d crude hedged at $70.59 = $595,267,550 Minus $12,127,500 = $583,140,050

$583,140,050 estimated revenue assuming Thailand gas same rate as Akatara, Brent premiums apply and conservative as to Akatara revenue given no inclusion of higher priced LPG and Condensate production!!!

ashkv
17/1/2024
10:34
Jadestone Energy 2024 Revenue Forecast $75 Brent

MONTARA (H1 23 Premium to Brent $1.5) 5,500 Boe/d * $76.50 = $153,573,750

STAG (H1 23 Premium to Brent $16) 2,500 Boe/d * $91.50 = $83,493,750

CWLH (Brent? No mention of adj in H1 23 Results) 4,400 Boe/d * $75.00 = $120,450,000

PENMAL (H1 23 Premium to Brent $3.5) 6,500 Boe/d * $78.50 = $186,241,250

SINPHUHORM (Reported as Dividend for JSE Share) 1,500 Boe/d * ??? using same Boe rate as Akatara US31.36 per Boe = $17,169,600

AKATARA (6,000 Boe/d Gas From H2 2024) 3,000 * US$31.36 per Boe (US$5.6/MMBtu) = $34,339,200
(Akatara conservative estimate as all gas no LPG or Condensates)
(1 bbl oil = 140*0.04 mmbtu = 5.6 mmbtu natural gas)

Total Revenue Forecast at $75 per boe $595,267,550|

Adjust for hedged amounts assuming no changes to premiums below!!!

ashkv
17/1/2024
09:20
see someone is at those 50k block buys again
sea7
17/1/2024
09:18
By the way that's not my personal reflection on senior management who (Excepting the Montara issues) have performed well at times but overall reasonable.

Just a reflection of the large (and growing!) gap between fair intrinsic value and market cap.

nigelpm
17/1/2024
09:01
Certainly there's a growing likelihood of Tyrus moving senior management on and taking it private I would think.
nigelpm
17/1/2024
08:48
Unreal share price - fingers crossed for a bid to come. Even 55-60p will do....

JSE Share Price: 27.00p
Brent: $77.00
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 28.57%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -71.03%
Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017
GBPUSD: 1.2650
Jadestone 2024 Production Mid-Guidance (20,000-23,000 Boe/d): 21,500
Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): 20,000
Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): 13,800
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 31 Dec 2023: $157,000,000
Cash (USD) 31 Dec 2023: $152,000,000
Net Debt (USD) 31 Dec 2023 : -$5,000,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $78,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £145,987,115
Market Cap (USD): $184,673,700
ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $189,673,700
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Mid Guidance Production 21,500 Boe/d $8,822
EV/Barrel(USD) -> Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): $9,484
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): $13,744
JSE Decommissioning Expense Liability i.e. Asset Restoration Liability per HY 2023 Results: $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE 2024 23,000 Boe/d Production [Added Decommissioning Expense Per HY 2023 Results to Enterprise Value]: $33,232
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE YEAR END 2024 26,000 Boe/d Production [Added Decommissioning Expense Per HY 2023 Results to Enterprise Value]: $29,397
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000
EV/2P: $2.93
Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 16 Jan 2024: 71.50p
% Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 164.81%

ashkv
17/1/2024
08:40
The days of 100p seem a long time ago now...
winnet
17/1/2024
08:35
baby out with the bathwater as usual Nigel
sea7
17/1/2024
08:35
Dunno I agree with you Nigel, I'm not laughing...
winnet
17/1/2024
08:28
It makes no sense. UK inflation has absolutely no bearing on JSE - funny to watch but stupid.
nigelpm
17/1/2024
08:23
Heading for previous lows. Surreal
banksy
16/1/2024
21:49
Ahh, missed the abandonment payment & didn't fancy criss-crossing reports for g&a, tax durastictions etc. So, carbon taxes were assessed, it seems earnings should be negative to the tune of maybe 20M$, plus taxes.I think they should insure & have a fire or something at stag but hey ho.https://www.jadestone-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230919-JSE-H1-2023-results-presentation-vF.pdf---on page 9 here cash YE 2023 is supposed to be -100m$, that's in contradiction to their recent update but I expect it's because of deferred payments or something. Still expecting net cash position around £80m for YE 2025 if they don't spend it in advance. I'd like to know their projected roce %age calculations per year on their purchases but will probably save that for the weekend.
t_headder
16/1/2024
20:57
If you include the $77m abandonment payment and $30m carbon taxes mentioned in the guidance then you're down to zero.Take into account the $40m+ G&A not mentioned in the guidance and you're negative.That's what's not to like..
bradvert
16/1/2024
19:45
Or Livermore come to that.. ?https://twitter.com/LivermoreOps/status/1745612890281738711(he has been known to post on this board on occasion)
bradvert
16/1/2024
19:38
Bit of a rough calc, I got around 500m$ revenue forecast for 2024 using 75$ bwent (50% hedged) plus 6 months of akatara. So assuming 100m$ is left after guidance costs, what's not to like?
t_headder
16/1/2024
19:12
I do wonder what Tyrus are thinking......

--

Possibly the same as me!!

winnet
16/1/2024
18:07
Hopefully that they can find a buyer north of 65p for JSE :)

Would make sense for Enquest, Serica, Neptune etc

yasX16 Jan '24 - 17:46 - 20683 of 20685
0 3 0
I do wonder what Tyrus are thinking......

ashkv
16/1/2024
18:07
Thanks all. Bit of an emotional outburst earlier due to market frustrations (not just JSE!). I need to take a proper look at the presentation later. I feel this has to be near capitulation price atm..
king suarez
16/1/2024
17:58
rimau1 VLE does seem insanely cheap.

MT/others any insight as to why VLE is so cheap? Any factors or even more severe mispricing as compared to JSE's plight?

So much value in the sector...

And to think TLW, highly leveraged with assets in banana republics and tax claims in arbitration has an EV/Barrel including Decom around US$ 50,000 per boe at a share price of 33p.

ITH in super high tax UK has an EV/Barrel including Decom of US$60,000 per boe at a share price of 142p...

Relative pricing doesn't appear consistent even accounting for variables....

ashkv
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