Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[e43] 17/1/2024 19:52

Winnet,I share most of your sentiments.
Montara might not be totally worthless to JSE going forward but I think it would be extremely hard to get a third party to pay anything for it in an attempted sale.
Apart from Akatara(a more conventional development project) the rest of Jadestone's assets are late stage,the raison d'etre being JSE has the knowledge and experience to efficiently manage them to extract a good net return.
ie ,JSE management skills are supposed to make the plc worth more than the sum of its parts.

[winnet] 17/1/2024 18:14

e43, I think there is a sentiment in the market that these fields are not as profitable as we thought. Too much opex, yes, but not worthless. They will make a profit assuming a decent oil price. The tanker needs to go for starters.

Other G&A costs need cutting, and salaries to start. Blakley needs to be the first to take a cut. These people need to face up to the same realities that us LTHs are facing. Not sit in their offices waiting for the retirement party.

I am very cross with myself right now, as I am sitting on a 6 figure paper loss, but I am equally annoyed at Blakley who I don't believe has done well. He cannot be on the FSPO but he can appoint people who know stuff about these boats and their maintenance. I am nearing the capitulation point with my holding and I want to see progress in 6 months, not several years. It's been jam tomorrow since IPO and tbh the folks that took part in the last dilution event must be hurting, but not quite as bad as me!

Blakley needs to go and I will be using my modest holding to vote against his re-election and I will lobbying other holders to do the same. IMO.

---

Note: Not many posters admit they got it wrong. I got it wrong spectacularly here.

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 15:59

Montara field is certainly not worthless and it is likely that another FPSO will be engaged for gas production once the current FPSO is retired.

At 6,000 boe/d top guidance for 2024 Montara opex per barrel is $54.79 for 2024 and will be lower for 2025 per guidance. (Full Year 2024 Opex guided to be US$120mn)

Stag on the other hand with lower production and higher Opex per barrel requires its crude to be priced at the higher range of its generous premium to Brent to be worthwhile.

At 3,000 boe/d top guidance for 2024 Stag opex per barrel is $64 per barrel (Full Year 2024 Opex guided to be US$70mn)

In 2025 JSE plan to drill another Stag well hopefully it will be worthwhile given very high drill costs.

Penmal drills in 2025 look to further increase JSE production...

[e43] 17/1/2024 14:49

We don't need stability, we need profitability ,and the market's woken up to the fact that at current oil prices Montara and probably Stag too have become close to worthless.(the rest of the business is looking increasingly good)

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 13:56

One problematic asset in Montara and this field has been stable for an extended period.

Massive increase in safety opex should only increase the likelihood of stable Montara operations. Plus come H2 2024 Montara is only 20% of JSE's production...

TaurusTheBear17 Jan '24 - 12:52 - 20710 of 20716
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No. The market likes stability, not the sort of stuff that JSE has been putting out for the past year.

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 13:51

My estimates on JSE field value if sold piecemeal / individual asset basis.

MONTARA (H1 23 Premium to Brent $1.5) - US$50 million (Economic value given remediation and 7,000 boe/d, Reserve Value)
STAG (H1 23 Premium to Brent $16) - 0 value
CWLH (Brent) - US175 million (Recent purchase price)
PENMAL (H1 23 Premium to Brent $3.5) - US$ 200 million (Conservative given increased 2p) (lower Decom costs)
SINPHUHORM (Indexed Gas Sale Price) - US$40 million (Recent purchase price)
AKATARA (Fixed Price $31.36 per boe)- US$150 million (Lower than project cost)

Total Sum of Parts US$ 660 million

Or 90p per share - funny that I came up with the same value ascribed by PB as an easily attainable sale price for JSE per my own estimates...

Net Debt Year End 2023 US$ 5 million

Would appreciate feedback re the above?

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 13:42

It is all about the price... JSE for a 26,000 to 30,000 boe/d H2 2024 production / current 20,000 boe/d is currently trading at an Enterprise Value of US$185 million...

At production top guidance and $80 Brent - PE Ratio is 2...

Bottom of the barrel valuation which doesn't make sense on a sum of the parts / breakup basis

Uber conservative broker Jefferies in their January 2024 AIM E&P update views accordingly ->

Jefferies cuts Jadestone Energy price target to 55 (60) pence - 'buy'
Jefferies cuts Serica Energy price target to 280 (330) pence - 'buy'

Enquest at 14p and Tullow at 27p for Jefferies...

At these low levels a bid / patient capital should step-in...

SteMiS17 Jan '24 - 12:56 - 20711 of 20714
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There small oilies out there with reliable production, good profitability, and high dividend yields, whose share prices are making little headway. Not sure why anyone thinks a potential loss making, non dividend paying, accident prone oily should do any better.

[nigelpm] 17/1/2024 13:26

For sure Stemis. Is it worth a 25% fall on that RNS though? That's the simple way of looking at.

[t_headder] 17/1/2024 13:20

I think the company, in guidance, should have updated the revenue forecast and extended it out to 2026, then the market has better figures to go from and a proper cashflow analysis can be done. Also, they intend to keep being acquisative, but buying into already producing assets via debt etc. and not having a discernable hurdle rate for return on invested capital is also something they should be shouting about. Remember, price is truth and if you have to spend hours going through past accounts and can only 'best guess' profitability as the company don't split areas of the business in accounts properly then the outcome is to sell up it looks

[11_percent] 17/1/2024 13:13

SteMIS.....you nailed it.

[stemis] 17/1/2024 12:56

There's small oilies out there with reliable production, good profitability, and high dividend yields, whose share prices are making little headway. Not sure why anyone thinks a potential loss making, non dividend paying, accident prone oily should do any better...

[taurusthebear] 17/1/2024 12:52

No. The market likes stability, not the sort of stuff that JSE has been putting out for the past year.

[neo26] 17/1/2024 12:35

Is this being oversold?

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 11:08

Webinar documents guides Stag at 2,000 - 3,000 boe/d Page 4 of below presentation

Page 5 of the same presentation mentions 5 workovers planned for Stag (to maintain
/enhance production)

I have included guidance were specified in the presentation and were not specified have used last reported quarterly production. This is conservative as for example Montara is currently producing 7,000 boe/d and per CEO PB CWLH is currently producing 30,000 boe/d for full 100% share of which JSE has 33.33%



pughman17 Jan '24 - 11:03 - 20706 of 20707
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From Monday's RNS and call, Stag is currently producing at circa 2,200boe/d. Barely 12 months since the $60m infills, Stag needs $100 oil+ premium, otherwise it's standing still at best.

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 11:05

2024 Gross Profit Estimate at $75 Brent and Production Mid-Guidance

Revenue $583 million
- Opex $270 million
- Carbon Tax/Royalties $30 million
- Capex $90 million
- Admin Costs $35 million
- Other Costs $20 million
- Finance costs $20 million
- CWLH Decommissioning One Time Payment as term of 2nd CWLH acquisition $77 million
- Tax $40 million
= Profit US 1 million

Top range of guidance and $80 Brent will approximately add US$90 million to the bottom line!!!

I expect JSE to handily beat the low ball top range of guidance as they did for revised 2023 production guidance!!!

Every $1 increase in Brent above $75 adjusting for hedged barrels and fixed price gas will result in additional $4,148,590 revenue / gross profit addition if Brent averages above $75

[pughman] 17/1/2024 11:03

From Monday's RNS and call, Stag is currently producing at circa 2,200boe/d. Barely 12 months since the $60m infills, Stag needs $100 oil+ premium, otherwise it's standing still at best.

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 10:42

From JSE HY 2023 Results ->

As required by the RBL facility, at 30 June 2023, the Group had entered into oil price swap contracts for 4.2 mmbbls, representing approximately 78% of the required hedging volumes, at a weighted average price of US$70.29/bbl. The hedging programme was subsequently completed in July 2023, with 5.5 mmbbls hedged over the Q4 2023 to Q3 2025 period at an overall weighted average price of US$70.57/bbl;

THE ABOVE TWO YEAR PERIOD HAS 5.5 million barrels hedge at $70.59 per Barrel
Or Daily Hedged Production Volume 7,534 at $70.59

Annual loss if Brent at $75 = 7,534 Boe/d * ($75 - $70.59) = $12,127,500

Therefore estimated revenue for Jadestone at $75 assuming premiums still apply adjusting for 7,534 boe/d crude hedged at $70.59 = $595,267,550 Minus $12,127,500 = $583,140,050

$583,140,050 estimated revenue assuming Thailand gas same rate as Akatara, Brent premiums apply and conservative as to Akatara revenue given no inclusion of higher priced LPG and Condensate production!!!

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 10:34

Jadestone Energy 2024 Revenue Forecast $75 Brent

MONTARA (H1 23 Premium to Brent $1.5) 5,500 Boe/d * $76.50 = $153,573,750

STAG (H1 23 Premium to Brent $16) 2,500 Boe/d * $91.50 = $83,493,750

CWLH (Brent? No mention of adj in H1 23 Results) 4,400 Boe/d * $75.00 = $120,450,000

PENMAL (H1 23 Premium to Brent $3.5) 6,500 Boe/d * $78.50 = $186,241,250

SINPHUHORM (Reported as Dividend for JSE Share) 1,500 Boe/d * ??? using same Boe rate as Akatara US31.36 per Boe = $17,169,600

AKATARA (6,000 Boe/d Gas From H2 2024) 3,000 * US$31.36 per Boe (US$5.6/MMBtu) = $34,339,200
(Akatara conservative estimate as all gas no LPG or Condensates)
(1 bbl oil = 140*0.04 mmbtu = 5.6 mmbtu natural gas)

Total Revenue Forecast at $75 per boe $595,267,550|

Adjust for hedged amounts assuming no changes to premiums below!!!

[sea7] 17/1/2024 09:20

see someone is at those 50k block buys again

[nigelpm] 17/1/2024 09:18

By the way that's not my personal reflection on senior management who (Excepting the Montara issues) have performed well at times but overall reasonable.

Just a reflection of the large (and growing!) gap between fair intrinsic value and market cap.

[nigelpm] 17/1/2024 09:01

Certainly there's a growing likelihood of Tyrus moving senior management on and taking it private I would think.

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 08:48

Unreal share price - fingers crossed for a bid to come. Even 55-60p will do....

JSE Share Price: 27.00p
Brent: $77.00
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 28.57%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -71.03%
Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017
GBPUSD: 1.2650
Jadestone 2024 Production Mid-Guidance (20,000-23,000 Boe/d): 21,500
Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): 20,000
Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): 13,800
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 31 Dec 2023: $157,000,000
Cash (USD) 31 Dec 2023: $152,000,000
Net Debt (USD) 31 Dec 2023 : -$5,000,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $78,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £145,987,115
Market Cap (USD): $184,673,700
ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $189,673,700
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Mid Guidance Production 21,500 Boe/d $8,822
EV/Barrel(USD) -> Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): $9,484
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): $13,744
JSE Decommissioning Expense Liability i.e. Asset Restoration Liability per HY 2023 Results: $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE 2024 23,000 Boe/d Production [Added Decommissioning Expense Per HY 2023 Results to Enterprise Value]: $33,232
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE YEAR END 2024 26,000 Boe/d Production [Added Decommissioning Expense Per HY 2023 Results to Enterprise Value]: $29,397
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000
EV/2P: $2.93
Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 16 Jan 2024: 71.50p
% Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 164.81%

[winnet] 17/1/2024 08:40

The days of 100p seem a long time ago now...

[sea7] 17/1/2024 08:35

baby out with the bathwater as usual Nigel