Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[taurusthebear] 18/1/2024 09:54

t_headder and SteMis articulated my sentiments.

Why would most investors be interested, in the current market, in an unreliable small oiler whose Bulls are endlessly extolling by going through complex arithmetical calculations that may or may not prove accurate.

If the share prices of simple, progressive oil companies with reliable annual production increases are not rising, no amount of pumping by the likes of ashkv will change matters.

This is heading down. Until it heads up. No doubt it will prove a lucrative investment... at some time.

[ashkv] 18/1/2024 09:48

Winnet concur - JSE management had better not be given any bonuses as that will be salt on investor wounds...

Sentiment in O&G is dire - similar to JSE holdings that have had positive news I3E, AXL etc are within close range of 52 week lows...

[winnet] 18/1/2024 09:45

Nigel - if your remark was directed at me, I am always reviewing all my positions, continually. In this case, I will be holding JSE for at least another year, but I won't be buying any more without changes being made...

Don't confuse my frustration with capitulation.

[ashkv] 18/1/2024 09:43

Good news has been entirely overlooked...

I too am aggrieved by JSE management as I was of mind that why there was no update on Montara remediation until the recent RNS? Progress with tanks etc?

JSE management should have been upfront in 2023 post hiring the surveyor and not started 2024 on a sour Montara/Stag note. PB needs to learn that he is no demi-god who can outsmart the market.

Also I am wary of the RBL redetermination so will not add until this is sorted out. JSE post Montara mishaps has scored many self goals with the RBL linked equity financing being the most severe and avoidable. Along with the Thai gas asset acquisition in early 2023 when financing was required for Akatara - inexplicable!!!

PB has to take the responsibility for these strategic blunders...

CFO's competence concerns me so until RBL is sorted I believe share price will overcompensate for the same.

Once RBL is sorted and as long as Akatara is going to plan I will double my holding - if the share price is at such super depressed levels.

MT can you speak as to Akatara returns? I was reviewing the same and to me it appears not lucrative for the USD150-200mn Capex based on the return profile unless further reserves unlocked? And more so not lucrative given the expensive equity raise arising from the RBL to finance Akatara.

Lets hope JSE conjures up a deal such as the recent HBR deal!!! PB needs to put or shut-up... Perhaps a farm-in / progress with the significant undeveloped Vietnam gas field.

JSE is a solid hold for me and I would be thrilled if my average was 27p...

SteMiS18 Jan '24 - 07:50 - 20725 of 20726
0 2 0
For sure Stemis. Is it worth a 25% fall on that RNS though? That's the simple way of looking at.

I think the fall is just a reflection of that, once again JSE has managed to come up with some bad news to offset the potential recovery from the last set of bad news. Lots of holders on here pointing to potential production figures for 2024 and what that would do to the profitability. The market is basically saying 'we've been here before so until they've actually delivered them, we're not interested'. So you have a share price driven by some holders giving up hope and potential new holders not seeing any point in buying at the moment (against a backdrop of a general market that is neither interested in oil nor interested in small companies...so small oil companies are a particular tough sell)

[ashkv] 18/1/2024 09:30

Other than Montara and Stag plus development asset Akatara the other assets have been picked up in the past two years.

Penmal with infilling drilling is no longer late stage so to say as new substantial 2p reserves are soon to be classified so given the spectacular late 2023 infill drill success. Also Penmal benefits from having substantial decom expenses already funded.

CWLH are low decline assets and the purchases within the past 18 months were for close to USD 200mn. JSE hopes to employ their expertise on the same to further enhance solid and stable prodution. Jefferies analyst was pleased with the latest CWLH acquisition as it very well fits into what JSE aspires to be!!!
in

Thailand - solid production from a 10% stake in a mid life gas field plus 20% in an even more enticing potential gas development.

e4317 Jan '24 - 19:52 - 20721 of 20725
0 3 0
Winnet,I share most of your sentiments.
Montara might not be totally worthless to JSE going forward but I think it would be extremely hard to get a third party to pay anything for it in an attempted sale.
Apart from Akatara(a more conventional development project) the rest of Jadestone's assets are late stage,the raison d'etre being JSE has the knowledge and experience to efficiently manage them to extract a good net return.
ie ,JSE management skills are supposed to make the plc worth more than the sum of its parts.

[stemis] 18/1/2024 07:50

For sure Stemis. Is it worth a 25% fall on that RNS though? That's the simple way of looking at.

I think the fall is just a reflection of that, once again JSE has managed to come up with some bad news to offset the potential recovery from the last set of bad news. Lots of holders on here pointing to potential production figures for 2024 and what that would do to the profitability. The market is basically saying 'we've been here before so until they've actually delivered them, we're not interested'. So you have a share price driven by some holders giving up hope and potential new holders not seeing any point in buying at the moment (against a backdrop of a general market that is neither interested in oil nor interested in small companies...so small oil companies are a particular tough sell)

[mount teide] 17/1/2024 22:32

From first oil Montara'a decline rate has been very modest, principally because it was expected to commence production at 28,000 - 35,000bopd of light, low sulphur crude but, the owner PTTEP (Thai National Oil & Gas Company) elected to save money on the upfront development costs, and so cut the number of initial production wells by 50%.

This resulted in first production peaking at circa 14,000 - 15,000bopd ...... nearly a decade later in 2019/20, and with just one infill well drilled on the field(by Jadestone), Montara's production was still in the 9,000 bopd - 10,000 bopd range with field uptime in the mid 80% range, up from under 70% under PTTEP's troubled operatorship.

The Montara Oil Field is comprised of a thin oil reservoir under a very large gas cap - it is considered by Shell, the developer of the Crux Nat Gas project(an important backfill facility for the existing Prelude FLNG facility) - as having the size and commercial potential for tying back to the Crux Nat Gas field.

[nigelpm] 17/1/2024 21:29

Sounds like you should probably sell up and move on..never easy but probably the right thing for you do it.

[pughman] 17/1/2024 21:18

I got it wrong and sit on a substantial paper loss. With Montara and Stag falling off a cliff the guts of the business have been ripped out and now hopes rest on Akatara production within 6 months and PM, but my hunch is that the present 7000 will quickly decline. The warning sign I didn't heed was Maari, it took 3 years to walk away from a deal that clearly wasn't going to happen after 2. Blakeley made a lot of money in his previous company, but that business model has proved to be not fit for purpose with JSE, with rapidly escalating decommissioning costs and hit and miss infills. As for Blakeley taking a pay cut, if he doesn't get another performance bonus for 23 I'll be gobsmacked.

[e43] 17/1/2024 19:52

Winnet,I share most of your sentiments.
Montara might not be totally worthless to JSE going forward but I think it would be extremely hard to get a third party to pay anything for it in an attempted sale.
Apart from Akatara(a more conventional development project) the rest of Jadestone's assets are late stage,the raison d'etre being JSE has the knowledge and experience to efficiently manage them to extract a good net return.
ie ,JSE management skills are supposed to make the plc worth more than the sum of its parts.

[winnet] 17/1/2024 18:14

e43, I think there is a sentiment in the market that these fields are not as profitable as we thought. Too much opex, yes, but not worthless. They will make a profit assuming a decent oil price. The tanker needs to go for starters.

Other G&A costs need cutting, and salaries to start. Blakley needs to be the first to take a cut. These people need to face up to the same realities that us LTHs are facing. Not sit in their offices waiting for the retirement party.

I am very cross with myself right now, as I am sitting on a 6 figure paper loss, but I am equally annoyed at Blakley who I don't believe has done well. He cannot be on the FSPO but he can appoint people who know stuff about these boats and their maintenance. I am nearing the capitulation point with my holding and I want to see progress in 6 months, not several years. It's been jam tomorrow since IPO and tbh the folks that took part in the last dilution event must be hurting, but not quite as bad as me!

Blakley needs to go and I will be using my modest holding to vote against his re-election and I will lobbying other holders to do the same. IMO.

---

Note: Not many posters admit they got it wrong. I got it wrong spectacularly here.

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 15:59

Montara field is certainly not worthless and it is likely that another FPSO will be engaged for gas production once the current FPSO is retired.

At 6,000 boe/d top guidance for 2024 Montara opex per barrel is $54.79 for 2024 and will be lower for 2025 per guidance. (Full Year 2024 Opex guided to be US$120mn)

Stag on the other hand with lower production and higher Opex per barrel requires its crude to be priced at the higher range of its generous premium to Brent to be worthwhile.

At 3,000 boe/d top guidance for 2024 Stag opex per barrel is $64 per barrel (Full Year 2024 Opex guided to be US$70mn)

In 2025 JSE plan to drill another Stag well hopefully it will be worthwhile given very high drill costs.

Penmal drills in 2025 look to further increase JSE production...

[e43] 17/1/2024 14:49

We don't need stability, we need profitability ,and the market's woken up to the fact that at current oil prices Montara and probably Stag too have become close to worthless.(the rest of the business is looking increasingly good)

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 13:56

One problematic asset in Montara and this field has been stable for an extended period.

Massive increase in safety opex should only increase the likelihood of stable Montara operations. Plus come H2 2024 Montara is only 20% of JSE's production...

TaurusTheBear17 Jan '24 - 12:52 - 20710 of 20716
0 2 0
No. The market likes stability, not the sort of stuff that JSE has been putting out for the past year.

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 13:51

My estimates on JSE field value if sold piecemeal / individual asset basis.

MONTARA (H1 23 Premium to Brent $1.5) - US$50 million (Economic value given remediation and 7,000 boe/d, Reserve Value)
STAG (H1 23 Premium to Brent $16) - 0 value
CWLH (Brent) - US175 million (Recent purchase price)
PENMAL (H1 23 Premium to Brent $3.5) - US$ 200 million (Conservative given increased 2p) (lower Decom costs)
SINPHUHORM (Indexed Gas Sale Price) - US$40 million (Recent purchase price)
AKATARA (Fixed Price $31.36 per boe)- US$150 million (Lower than project cost)

Total Sum of Parts US$ 660 million

Or 90p per share - funny that I came up with the same value ascribed by PB as an easily attainable sale price for JSE per my own estimates...

Net Debt Year End 2023 US$ 5 million

Would appreciate feedback re the above?

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 13:42

It is all about the price... JSE for a 26,000 to 30,000 boe/d H2 2024 production / current 20,000 boe/d is currently trading at an Enterprise Value of US$185 million...

At production top guidance and $80 Brent - PE Ratio is 2...

Bottom of the barrel valuation which doesn't make sense on a sum of the parts / breakup basis

Uber conservative broker Jefferies in their January 2024 AIM E&P update views accordingly ->

Jefferies cuts Jadestone Energy price target to 55 (60) pence - 'buy'
Jefferies cuts Serica Energy price target to 280 (330) pence - 'buy'

Enquest at 14p and Tullow at 27p for Jefferies...

At these low levels a bid / patient capital should step-in...

SteMiS17 Jan '24 - 12:56 - 20711 of 20714
0 3 0
There small oilies out there with reliable production, good profitability, and high dividend yields, whose share prices are making little headway. Not sure why anyone thinks a potential loss making, non dividend paying, accident prone oily should do any better.

[nigelpm] 17/1/2024 13:26

For sure Stemis. Is it worth a 25% fall on that RNS though? That's the simple way of looking at.

[t_headder] 17/1/2024 13:20

I think the company, in guidance, should have updated the revenue forecast and extended it out to 2026, then the market has better figures to go from and a proper cashflow analysis can be done. Also, they intend to keep being acquisative, but buying into already producing assets via debt etc. and not having a discernable hurdle rate for return on invested capital is also something they should be shouting about. Remember, price is truth and if you have to spend hours going through past accounts and can only 'best guess' profitability as the company don't split areas of the business in accounts properly then the outcome is to sell up it looks

[11_percent] 17/1/2024 13:13

SteMIS.....you nailed it.

[stemis] 17/1/2024 12:56

There's small oilies out there with reliable production, good profitability, and high dividend yields, whose share prices are making little headway. Not sure why anyone thinks a potential loss making, non dividend paying, accident prone oily should do any better...

[taurusthebear] 17/1/2024 12:52

No. The market likes stability, not the sort of stuff that JSE has been putting out for the past year.

[neo26] 17/1/2024 12:35

Is this being oversold?

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 11:08

Webinar documents guides Stag at 2,000 - 3,000 boe/d Page 4 of below presentation

Page 5 of the same presentation mentions 5 workovers planned for Stag (to maintain
/enhance production)

I have included guidance were specified in the presentation and were not specified have used last reported quarterly production. This is conservative as for example Montara is currently producing 7,000 boe/d and per CEO PB CWLH is currently producing 30,000 boe/d for full 100% share of which JSE has 33.33%



pughman17 Jan '24 - 11:03 - 20706 of 20707
0 0 0
From Monday's RNS and call, Stag is currently producing at circa 2,200boe/d. Barely 12 months since the $60m infills, Stag needs $100 oil+ premium, otherwise it's standing still at best.