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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jadestone Energy Plc | LSE:JSE | London | Ordinary Share | GB00BLR71299 | ORD GBP0.001 |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.25 | 4.95% | 26.50 | 26.00 | 27.00 | 27.25 | 24.90 | 25.00 | 868,166 | 09:01:21 |
Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs | 323.28M | -91.27M | -0.1688 | -1.57 | 136.56M |
Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
---|---|---|---|
16/1/2024 09:58 | 1AJM - your research, while useful, completely misses the key point - all the problems the company has experienced over the last 18 months were AVOIDABLE or could have been largely contained to a fraction of the pain that has subsequently been experienced. 'I note AET have scheduled FSO dry dock in 2028 for $130m capex - that’s the ballpark figure it would have cost JSE - plus loss of production . But it would have been back online much sooner' - Ian Croasdale Montara Venture is a relatively small VLCC at circa 900,000 bbl oil capacity compared to AET's FSO Palanca's 2,200,000 bbls. The cost to carry out all of the inspection and remedial work NOPSEMA want carried out on Montara Venture, together with additional work JSE would have scheduled to take advantage of from the docking opportunity, would probably have been somewhere in the region of $30-40m and have taken around 3-4 months max plus towage to/from a Singaporean shipyard. The cost to buy Montara Venture and convert the tanker into an FPSO, was $107m and took around a year. The previous owners of Montara, the Thai National Oil Company, clearly failed from first production to inspect and maintain the FPSO and production infrastructure remotely close to the standard required under the rules - how do we know? They were repeatedly hit with General and Prohibition notices by NOPSEMA. Rather than directly dealing with the issues they worked around many, resulting in production falling to sub 7,000 bopd and the opex/bbl ballooning to circa $60 bbl, by the time JSE picked up the asset for a net circa $82m. It is a fact that within 18 months JSE had brought Montara's opex/bbl down to an astonishing circa $20 bbl, through operational efficiencies and raising production to circa 10,000 bopd. However, the great unknown remained - how much high quality inspection and maintenance work had the Thai's actually carried out since the FPSO had been deployed at the field. JSE's failure to employ people with the professional shipping expertise capable of articulating to the Board the need to implement an enhanced level of inspection and maintenance on the FPSO, because of its age and problematic inspection and maintenance background eventually came home to roost. Even then, the overwhelming majority of the financial issues that have since resulted, could have been avoided - if the JSE management had not disastrously underestimated the scale of and time required to carry out in situ, the inspection and remedial work NOPSEMA subsequently demanded. Resulting, some 18 months later, of the work still not expected to be complete until H1/2024. And at a cost in terms of lost production, standby tankers and, highly expensive inspection and remedial work by small teams of Australian based specialists, limited by the onboard accommodation capacity, of now probably many, many times what it would have cost by using a specialist SE Asian shipyard to carry out the work in H2/2022. In my view, all sadly avoidable - Paul Blakeley, in interview after interview, said our long track record of success, was down to "sticking to our knitting" - identifying and buying attractively priced, high quality second phase O&G assets with material reinvestment potential and operating then more efficiently. This is no doubt very true. However, with the Montara acquisition, from the outset, Blakeley, should have accepted that inspecting, maintaining and operating highly sophisticated, tanker/FPSO conversions with 20 year plus statutory dry dock exemptions is well beyond his team's area of expertise/'knitting' Sadly, hubris from the huge initial success of getting NOPSEMA to reinstate the full use of all Montara's production handling equipment immediately prior to completion of the purchase of the asset, and subsequently reducing the opex/bbl from over $60 to an astonishing $20 within 18 months, has led shareholders to where they find themselves today. The management's extremely poor handling of the Montara FPSO issue has been entirely responsible for this state of affairs - it could have been so much different, as in almost every other respect (securing of high quality assets for peanuts etc) the management has performed extremely well. Having said all this - on the balance of probabilities, I do today see a situation where the worse is now behind the company with respect to the impact that the legacy assets are likely to have on its future performance, and consider at this price point, the prospects for capital growth over the next 2 years offer very good risk/reward. AIMHO/DYOR | mount teide | |
16/1/2024 09:42 | Can I get some upvotes for my hardwork, fact based replies to the negative view... as else those who are not logged into ADVFN do not get to view the counter point!!! Thanks | ashkv | |
16/1/2024 09:39 | Are you serious!!! haha As Tax/Royalties is included next to Opex figures lets just redefine Opex and include Carbon tax plus royalties? :) :) It is called getting all the negatives out and starting with a clean slate!!! I would very much invest in JSE at today's ridiculously low price!!! 1AJM16 Jan '24 - 09:37 - 20664 of 20664 0 0 0 Why do you think they felt the need to mention royalties and carbon costs right next to the operational costs? | ashkv | |
16/1/2024 09:37 | Why do you think they felt the need to mention royalties and carbon tax costs right next to the operational costs? | 1ajm | |
16/1/2024 09:35 | JSE has exceeded mid-year revised top guidance for 2023!!! It is apparent to anyone with any insight on the firm that the guidance figures appear conservative - all depends on Akatara start per guidance. With Montara currently producing at 7000 boe/d management conveyed on 15 Jan 24 call that Montara guidance of 5,000-6,000 boed takes into account declines and possible brief periods of being offline... Lets see how Serica does.... SteMiS16 Jan '24 - 09:31 - 20662 of 20662 0 0 0 The company can put out all the projections for 2024 it likes but, with it's history of overpromising and underachieving, the market simply isn't going to take them on trust. 2023 looks like another year in which JSE fails to deliver any real profit. | ashkv | |
16/1/2024 09:31 | The company can put out all the projections for 2024 it likes but, with it's history of overpromising and underachieving, the market simply isn't going to take them on trust. 2023 looks like another year in which JSE fails to deliver any real profit. | stemis | |
16/1/2024 09:26 | Since when is taxation an operating cost?? 1AJM16 Jan '24 - 09:17 - 20657 of 20660 0 0 0 the $30mn for royalties and carbon tax is a cost? thats where I got Operational costs to 300 shocking start to the share price Recovering currently atleast. | ashkv | |
16/1/2024 09:25 | Current predicament benefits no one other than shorters... Per Euroclear substantial number of shares are borrowed out / likely shorted. impossible12316 Jan '24 - 08:53 - 20653 of 20659 0 2 0 Can anyone actually believe senior management esp Mr Blakeley not know more up-keep costs will be required for Montara and Stag in the future? These are old production wells, and in decline. If not, he ought not to lead JSE after calamity after calamity; the sharebacks and dividends - instead of conserving cash for increasing costs for Montara and Stag, and acquisitions - only have benefited the major shareholders and not retail or small investors. I do not want to sound pessimistic. I think the share share price will do well if maintaining this level or above 25p until RBL renegotiation has been concluded. A saviour for small shareholders would be a predator in the short term. Even then the major shareholders might not play ball; they could sequestrate JSE super-cheap. | ashkv | |
16/1/2024 09:23 | JSE share price is irrationally low. At 5,500 boe/d Montara is 20% of 2024 forecast exit production 26,000 per even 1AJM.. Share price is not reflecting Akatara or Penmal addional 3-4,000 boe/d production!!! Though it would appear management is not factoring any additional barrels from the Montara drill in q4 2024 for 2024 guidance!!! yasX16 Jan '24 - 08:27 - 20652 of 20656 0 2 0 Montara continues to be a thorn in the side of JSE. Given the history, notwithstanding decreasing reliance on this asset, market will factor in the risk of montara surprising ince again to the detriment of JSE. Overall the reaction to the update yesterday is overly severe presumably reflecting the aforementioned risk. | ashkv | |
16/1/2024 09:18 | Yes - clear buying below 30p - I'm stunned it's back here to be honest. | nigelpm | |
16/1/2024 09:17 | the $30mn for royalties and carbon tax is a cost? thats where I got Operational costs to 300 shocking start to the share price Recovering currently atleast. | 1ajm | |
16/1/2024 09:11 | As I have pointed out prior - you are an uber negative / appear to be a troll on JSE!!! ALSO MY FIGURES ARE MID GUIDANCE OR ACTUAL REPORTED FIGURES WHEREAS 1AJM WITH USD 300MN 2024 OPEX, FALSE FIGURES FOR H1 2023 is blatantly falsifying. [Please note JSE handily beat top revised guidance for 2023] MOREOVER BRENT OIL HAS AVERAGED MORE THAN US$75 for the first two weeks of 2024!!! YOUR UTTERANCE OF SECONDING YOUR TROLL KIN 1AJM IS OF NO MERIT OR VALUE!!! BACK UP YOUR ASSERTIONS WITH FACTS RE MY FIGURES ELSE SIT DOWN!!! pughman16 Jan '24 - 08:18 - 20651 of 20655 0 4 0 ashkv, the numbers from 1AJM are far more realistic than the pie in the sky projections you have posted ad nauseum over recent times. Blakeley seems to be unaccountable for his abject management and so the Titanic sails on | ashkv | |
16/1/2024 09:06 | yes they are - taking advantage of the over reaction | sea7 | |
16/1/2024 09:03 | On the plus side, someone is hoovering them up in 50k blocks... | winnet | |
16/1/2024 08:53 | Can anyone actually believe senior management esp Mr Blakeley not know more up-keep costs will be required for Montara and Stag in the future? These are old production wells, and in decline. If not, he ought not to lead JSE after calamity after calamity; the sharebacks and dividends - instead of conserving cash for increasing costs for Montara and Stag, and acquisitions - only have benefited the major shareholders and not retail or small investors. I do not want to sound pessimistic. I think the share share price will do well if maintaining this level or above 25p until RBL renegotiation has been concluded. A saviour for small shareholders would be a predator in the short term. Even then the major shareholders might not play ball; they could sequestrate JSE super-cheap. | impossible123 | |
16/1/2024 08:27 | Montara continues to be a thorn in the side of JSE. Given the history, notwithstanding decreasing reliance on this asset, market will factor in the risk of montara surprising ince again to the detriment of JSE. Overall the reaction to the update yesterday is overly severe presumably reflecting the aforementioned risk. | yasx | |
16/1/2024 08:18 | ashkv, the numbers from 1AJM are far more realistic than the pie in the sky projections you have posted ad nauseum over recent times. Blakeley seems to be unaccountable for his abject management and so the Titanic sails on. | pughman | |
16/1/2024 07:33 | From 2023 HY Results l The average realised oil price1 in H1 2023 was US$86.15/bbl, 21% lower than H1 2022, largely due to lower realised Brent prices year-on-year. The premium achieved in H1 2023 was US$8.87/bbl (H1 2022: US$6.99/bbl) due to relatively high proportion of Stag liftings during H1 2023; | ashkv | |
16/1/2024 07:32 | Elsa please see below -> EV/Barrel ridiculously low even with Decom expenses!!! Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000 EV/Barrel (USD) JSE 2024 23,000 boe/d 2024 Production + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf Acquisition: $34,194 JSE Share Price: 29.00p Brent: $78.50 JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 38.10% JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -68.88% Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017 GBPUSD: 1.2650 Jadestone 2024 Production Mid-Guidance (20,000-23,000 Boe/d): 21,500 Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): 13,800 Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): 20,000 Production Average for 2022: 11,487 Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 31 Dec 2023: $157,000,000 Cash (USD) 31 Dec 2023: $152,000,000 Net Debt (USD) 31 Dec 2023 : -$5,000,000 Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $78,000,000 Market Cap (GBP); £156,800,975 Market Cap (USD): $198,353,233 ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $203,353,233 EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Mid Guidance Production 21,500 Boe/d $9,458 EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): $14,736 EV/Barrel(USD) -> Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): $10,168 Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000 EV/Barrel (USD) JSE 2024 23,000 Boe/d Production + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf Acquisition: $33,826 2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000 EV/2P: $3.14 Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 18 Dec 23: 75.25p % Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 159.48% elsa787816 Jan '24 - 06:51 - 20646 of 20648 0 0 0 And while you’re at it remind of the decomm costs on Montana and Stag. Thanks | ashkv | |
16/1/2024 07:15 | Wasn't it said the shuttle tanker would be gone in September, saving 30k$ per day?Would be good to see some in depth analysis, I only compared guidance to H1 without going into depth & don't do spreadsheets. | t_headder | |
16/1/2024 06:51 | And while you’re at it remind of the decomm costs on Montana and Stag. Thanks | elsa7878 | |
16/1/2024 06:47 | 12 month Montara 5,000-6,000 [Montara Premium to Brent is $1.5 - $2] 12 month Stag 2,000-3,000 [Stag Premium to Brent is $22 in 2022 and $16 in H1 2023] 12 month CWLH should be 4400-5000 boe/d [2000 is too low as field issues have been resolved] Moreover cost forecasts for Montara and Stag are Uber conservative -> Costs for both Montara and Stag are forecast to be lower 2025 onwards. And could be still lower if dedicated tanker is done away with or high tanker rates go down!!! I WILL UNDERTAKE A COMPARISON WITH FIRMS SUCH AS ENQUEST, TULLOW ETC TO HIGHLIGHT HOW UNDERVALUED JADESTONE ENERGY IS AT 30P. CRAZY LOW SHARE PRICE!!! 14 Nov 2023 07:00 RNS Number : 3710T Jadestone Energy PLC Acquisition of Additional Interest in the CWLH Oil Fields The CWLH fields produced c. 2,200 bbls/d during Q3 2023 and have averaged c.1,800 bbls/d year-to-date 2023 (both figures net to the Seller's 16.67% interest). Production has regularly exceeded 2,300 bbls/d net to Jadestone in recent months. Year-to-date production was impacted by facilities downtime earlier in 2023, with remediation plans to prevent similar occurrences already being implemented. | ashkv | |
16/1/2024 06:35 | At $550mn - $470mn = +$80mn from operations. Current Market Cap at 30p Market Cap is US$206,815,079 Even with 1AJM doom/gloom forecast JSE at 30p has a forecast Price to Equity (PE) Ratio of = 206/80 = 2.58 :) How undervalued is that? And that too with oil price at $75 - which is the lowest among all forecasts for 2024 being the level Citigroup has Brent at!!1 Any upside in oil and even with 1AJM forecast JSE will be at PE Ratio in between 1-2 times Price to Earnings :) 1AJM15 Jan '24 - 23:57 - 20643 of 20643 0 4 0 Harsh day for the share price. Don't even want to guess if tomorrow will drop more or stay level. | ashkv |
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