Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[1ajm] 16/1/2024 09:17

the $30mn for royalties and carbon tax is a cost? thats where I got Operational costs to 300

shocking start to the share price Recovering currently atleast.

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 09:11

As I have pointed out prior - you are an uber negative / appear to be a troll on JSE!!!

ALSO MY FIGURES ARE MID GUIDANCE OR ACTUAL REPORTED FIGURES WHEREAS 1AJM WITH USD 300MN 2024 OPEX, FALSE FIGURES FOR H1 2023 is blatantly falsifying. [Please note JSE handily beat top revised guidance for 2023]

MOREOVER BRENT OIL HAS AVERAGED MORE THAN US$75 for the first two weeks of 2024!!!

YOUR UTTERANCE OF SECONDING YOUR TROLL KIN 1AJM IS OF NO MERIT OR VALUE!!!

BACK UP YOUR ASSERTIONS WITH FACTS RE MY FIGURES ELSE SIT DOWN!!!

pughman16 Jan '24 - 08:18 - 20651 of 20655
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ashkv, the numbers from 1AJM are far more realistic than the pie in the sky projections you have posted ad nauseum over recent times. Blakeley seems to be unaccountable for his abject management and so the Titanic sails on

[sea7] 16/1/2024 09:06

yes they are - taking advantage of the over reaction

[winnet] 16/1/2024 09:03

On the plus side, someone is hoovering them up in 50k blocks...

[impossible123] 16/1/2024 08:53

Can anyone actually believe senior management esp Mr Blakeley not know more up-keep costs will be required for Montara and Stag in the future? These are old production wells, and in decline. If not, he ought not to lead JSE after calamity after calamity; the sharebacks and dividends - instead of conserving cash for increasing costs for Montara and Stag, and acquisitions - only have benefited the major shareholders and not retail or small investors.

I do not want to sound pessimistic. I think the share share price will do well if maintaining this level or above 25p until RBL renegotiation has been concluded.

A saviour for small shareholders would be a predator in the short term. Even then the major shareholders might not play ball; they could sequestrate JSE super-cheap.

[yasx] 16/1/2024 08:27

Montara continues to be a thorn in the side of JSE. Given the history, notwithstanding decreasing reliance on this asset, market will factor in the risk of montara surprising ince again to the detriment of JSE.

Overall the reaction to the update yesterday is overly severe presumably reflecting the aforementioned risk.

[pughman] 16/1/2024 08:18

ashkv, the numbers from 1AJM are far more realistic than the pie in the sky projections you have posted ad nauseum over recent times. Blakeley seems to be unaccountable for his abject management and so the Titanic sails on.

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 07:33

From 2023 HY Results

l The average realised oil price1 in H1 2023 was US$86.15/bbl, 21% lower than H1 2022, largely due to lower realised Brent prices year-on-year. The premium achieved in H1 2023 was US$8.87/bbl (H1 2022: US$6.99/bbl) due to relatively high proportion of Stag liftings during H1 2023;

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 07:32

Elsa please see below -> EV/Barrel ridiculously low even with Decom expenses!!!

Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE 2024 23,000 boe/d 2024 Production + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf Acquisition: $34,194

JSE Share Price: 29.00p
Brent: $78.50
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 38.10%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -68.88%
Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017
GBPUSD: 1.2650
Jadestone 2024 Production Mid-Guidance (20,000-23,000 Boe/d): 21,500
Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): 13,800
Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): 20,000
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 31 Dec 2023: $157,000,000
Cash (USD) 31 Dec 2023: $152,000,000
Net Debt (USD) 31 Dec 2023 : -$5,000,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $78,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £156,800,975
Market Cap (USD): $198,353,233
ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $203,353,233
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Mid Guidance Production 21,500 Boe/d $9,458
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): $14,736
EV/Barrel(USD) -> Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): $10,168
Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE 2024 23,000 Boe/d Production + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf Acquisition: $33,826
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000
EV/2P: $3.14
Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 18 Dec 23: 75.25p
% Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 159.48%

elsa787816 Jan '24 - 06:51 - 20646 of 20648
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And while you’re at it remind of the decomm costs on Montana and Stag. Thanks

[t_headder] 16/1/2024 07:15

Wasn't it said the shuttle tanker would be gone in September, saving 30k$ per day?Would be good to see some in depth analysis, I only compared guidance to H1 without going into depth & don't do spreadsheets.

[elsa7878] 16/1/2024 06:51

And while you’re at it remind of the decomm costs on Montana and Stag. Thanks

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 06:47

12 month Montara 5,000-6,000 [Montara Premium to Brent is $1.5 - $2]
12 month Stag 2,000-3,000 [Stag Premium to Brent is $22 in 2022 and $16 in H1 2023]
12 month CWLH should be 4400-5000 boe/d [2000 is too low as field issues have been resolved]

Moreover cost forecasts for Montara and Stag are Uber conservative -> Costs for both Montara and Stag are forecast to be lower 2025 onwards. And could be still lower if dedicated tanker is done away with or high tanker rates go down!!!

I WILL UNDERTAKE A COMPARISON WITH FIRMS SUCH AS ENQUEST, TULLOW ETC TO HIGHLIGHT HOW UNDERVALUED JADESTONE ENERGY IS AT 30P.

CRAZY LOW SHARE PRICE!!!

14 Nov 2023 07:00
RNS Number : 3710T
Jadestone Energy PLC
Acquisition of Additional Interest in the CWLH Oil Fields

The CWLH fields produced c. 2,200 bbls/d during Q3 2023 and have averaged c.1,800 bbls/d year-to-date 2023 (both figures net to the Seller's 16.67% interest). Production has regularly exceeded 2,300 bbls/d net to Jadestone in recent months. Year-to-date production was impacted by facilities downtime earlier in 2023, with remediation plans to prevent similar occurrences already being implemented.

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 06:35

At $550mn - $470mn = +$80mn from operations.

Current Market Cap at 30p Market Cap is US$206,815,079

Even with 1AJM doom/gloom forecast JSE at 30p has a forecast Price to Equity (PE) Ratio of = 206/80 = 2.58 :)

How undervalued is that?

And that too with oil price at $75 - which is the lowest among all forecasts for 2024 being the level Citigroup has Brent at!!1

Any upside in oil and even with 1AJM forecast JSE will be at PE Ratio in between 1-2 times Price to Earnings :)

1AJM15 Jan '24 - 23:57 - 20643 of 20643
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Harsh day for the share price. Don't even want to guess if tomorrow will drop more or stay level.

[xxnjr] 15/1/2024 16:07

Crikey! Things are really bad according to Malcy.
"the target for this year is 20-23 boe/d"

[pughman] 15/1/2024 15:53

Stag produced 2,879 barrels in H1 23. They spent $60m on infills in late 22 when there was talk of 4000bpd.For this year, 366×90×2879=$95m, with $70m operating costs. That production number is generous until the next infill. It does put the business model under scrutiny.

[sea7] 15/1/2024 15:16

malcy comments

So, the skeletons in the cupboard continue to come back to haunt Jadestone, AKA Montara and Stag where, however hard the management tries to diminish their drag on the rest of the company, they remain key albeit slowing assets and the only way to lessen their effect is to grow the rest of the business. But that is what is happening, at long last.

But as they say in this statement ‘life of field costs at Montara and Stag will be higher than expected due to increases in repair and maintenance costs to maintain both facilities in an appropriate condition’. This is therefore going to lead to a likely non-cash impairment when the 2023 year end numbers are cranked and that was all that was needed for the market to send the shares down some 15%.

But there are plenty of pluses in the statement, even taking Stag out of the RBL redetermination will leave plenty of headroom going forward. Guidance one way or another was exceeded last year and the target for this year is 20-23 boe/d which could and should be a bit conservative but nothing wrong with that after what the company has been through. It is worth remembering that Montara which once stood for 80% of company production will be 20% by the end of this year.

Akatara is being completed and will start on time and the CWLH-2 is going to be a huge contributor and that’s on target as well for 1Q ’24. As Paul Blakely says Jadestone will be newer, higher margin and higher reliability assets in the future, I really believe that the company is on the verge of that change, indeed we are in that quarter now, let’s hope so, after the last couple of years this is no time to lose confidence…

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 14:55

Akatara also has condensates and LPG which will be at good levels in 2024

Also management guided that current gas obligations are met via only the initial 2 of 5 wells being worked on. Giving scope to increase production to 10,000 boe/d should new clients be signed on.

1AJM15 Jan '24 - 14:28 - 20637 of 20638
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I'm not sure revenue will reach that high ash. Akatara is 6,000boe/d of gas in h2. Lower cost per boe to match ofc.

[nigelpm] 15/1/2024 14:31

30p/£160m is cheap - whether that's for good reason or not will be determined!

[1ajm] 15/1/2024 14:28

I'm not sure revenue will reach that high ash. Akatara is 6,000boe/d of gas in h2. Lower cost per boe to match ofc.

I am going to read through again later and look at the presentation and rns with a more positive view later. I knew it was kind of negative when i wrote it. but it did read fairly negative.

For the FPSO being used else where as an asset after montara, not thought about that, interesting thought though.

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 14:19

Also a thought Spawny to provide context on how undervalued JSE is - a single well on Montara (Skua) is guided for USD 40 million for around 2000 boe/d production. Now multiply that by 11 for 2024 guidance and to think JSE's current market is approaching 1/3rd of the same!!!

Doesn't make sense... A bid has to come at these low levels..

Hopefully the board / CEO don't screw us over with a a sale in 50-60p range...

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 14:15

Indeed - I believe an overreaction and hopefully share price recovers to the 40p plus range in short order :)

nigelpm15 Jan '24 - 14:13 - 20633 of 20634
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No - that doesn't include Gas from Akatara - bizarre reaction but there go.

My sense this morning was that the positives were far outweighing bad news on Stag and Montara but seems I'm wrong.

[nigelpm] 15/1/2024 14:13

No - that doesn't include Gas from Akatara - bizarre reaction but there go.

My sense this morning was that the positives were far outweighing bad news on Stag and Montara but seems I'm wrong.