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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jadestone Energy Plc | LSE:JSE | London | Ordinary Share | GB00BLR71299 | ORD GBP0.001 |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.05 | 0.19% | 26.25 | 26.00 | 26.50 | 26.50 | 26.00 | 26.50 | 1,594,715 | 13:30:47 |
Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs | 323.28M | -91.27M | -0.1688 | -1.54 | 141.69M |
Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
---|---|---|---|
16/1/2024 06:35 | At $550mn - $470mn = +$80mn from operations. Current Market Cap at 30p Market Cap is US$206,815,079 Even with 1AJM doom/gloom forecast JSE at 30p has a forecast Price to Equity (PE) Ratio of = 206/80 = 2.58 :) How undervalued is that? And that too with oil price at $75 - which is the lowest among all forecasts for 2024 being the level Citigroup has Brent at!!1 Any upside in oil and even with 1AJM forecast JSE will be at PE Ratio in between 1-2 times Price to Earnings :) 1AJM15 Jan '24 - 23:57 - 20643 of 20643 0 4 0 Harsh day for the share price. Don't even want to guess if tomorrow will drop more or stay level. | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 16:07 | Crikey! Things are really bad according to Malcy. "the target for this year is 20-23 boe/d" | xxnjr | |
15/1/2024 15:53 | Stag produced 2,879 barrels in H1 23. They spent $60m on infills in late 22 when there was talk of 4000bpd.For this year, 366×90×2879=$95m, with $70m operating costs. That production number is generous until the next infill. It does put the business model under scrutiny. | pughman | |
15/1/2024 15:16 | malcy comments So, the skeletons in the cupboard continue to come back to haunt Jadestone, AKA Montara and Stag where, however hard the management tries to diminish their drag on the rest of the company, they remain key albeit slowing assets and the only way to lessen their effect is to grow the rest of the business. But that is what is happening, at long last. But as they say in this statement ‘life of field costs at Montara and Stag will be higher than expected due to increases in repair and maintenance costs to maintain both facilities in an appropriate condition’. This is therefore going to lead to a likely non-cash impairment when the 2023 year end numbers are cranked and that was all that was needed for the market to send the shares down some 15%. But there are plenty of pluses in the statement, even taking Stag out of the RBL redetermination will leave plenty of headroom going forward. Guidance one way or another was exceeded last year and the target for this year is 20-23 boe/d which could and should be a bit conservative but nothing wrong with that after what the company has been through. It is worth remembering that Montara which once stood for 80% of company production will be 20% by the end of this year. Akatara is being completed and will start on time and the CWLH-2 is going to be a huge contributor and that’s on target as well for 1Q ’24. As Paul Blakely says Jadestone will be newer, higher margin and higher reliability assets in the future, I really believe that the company is on the verge of that change, indeed we are in that quarter now, let’s hope so, after the last couple of years this is no time to lose confidence… | sea7 | |
15/1/2024 14:55 | Akatara also has condensates and LPG which will be at good levels in 2024 Also management guided that current gas obligations are met via only the initial 2 of 5 wells being worked on. Giving scope to increase production to 10,000 boe/d should new clients be signed on. 1AJM15 Jan '24 - 14:28 - 20637 of 20638 0 0 0 I'm not sure revenue will reach that high ash. Akatara is 6,000boe/d of gas in h2. Lower cost per boe to match ofc. | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 14:31 | 30p/£160m is cheap - whether that's for good reason or not will be determined! | nigelpm | |
15/1/2024 14:28 | I'm not sure revenue will reach that high ash. Akatara is 6,000boe/d of gas in h2. Lower cost per boe to match ofc. I am going to read through again later and look at the presentation and rns with a more positive view later. I knew it was kind of negative when i wrote it. but it did read fairly negative. For the FPSO being used else where as an asset after montara, not thought about that, interesting thought though. | 1ajm | |
15/1/2024 14:19 | Also a thought Spawny to provide context on how undervalued JSE is - a single well on Montara (Skua) is guided for USD 40 million for around 2000 boe/d production. Now multiply that by 11 for 2024 guidance and to think JSE's current market is approaching 1/3rd of the same!!! Doesn't make sense... A bid has to come at these low levels.. Hopefully the board / CEO don't screw us over with a a sale in 50-60p range... | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 14:15 | Indeed - I believe an overreaction and hopefully share price recovers to the 40p plus range in short order :) nigelpm15 Jan '24 - 14:13 - 20633 of 20634 0 1 0 No - that doesn't include Gas from Akatara - bizarre reaction but there go. My sense this morning was that the positives were far outweighing bad news on Stag and Montara but seems I'm wrong. | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 14:13 | No - that doesn't include Gas from Akatara - bizarre reaction but there go. My sense this morning was that the positives were far outweighing bad news on Stag and Montara but seems I'm wrong. | nigelpm | |
15/1/2024 14:09 | It happens - the Hotel Chocolat takeover at a 100% premium to then price is a good recent example on the LSE from late 2023!!! JSE did mess up with Montara and now additional costs to ensure reliable production... however, the share price more than compensates for the same!!! spawny10015 Jan '24 - 14:02 - 20630 of 20632 0 2 0 Shares are rarely insanely cheap for no reason ash. | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 14:08 | Per 2022 Full Year Results Operating costs per barrel of oil equivalent (US$/boe) US$37.49 And for 2024 - US$33.5 /boe - crazy the share price drop!!! Basically higher costs is insurance on further Montara / Stag issues. And welcome given preferred as compared to FPSO halts for remediation!!! Opex costs for Stag and Montara are guided to be US$60 per barrel for 2024 - but given Stag oil sells for a huge premium to Brent ($22 premium to Brent in 2022) it is still profitable production. Also if I recall Montara oil also has a small premium to Brent? The midpoints of the total operating cost and production guidance ranges imply a group opex/bbl of c.US$33.5/boe for 2024, which is a c.30% reduction on expected 2023 levels due to higher production and also lower unit cost assets which have been added to the portfolio, such as Akatara, Malaysia and CWLH, all having a positive impact on Group metrics. | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 14:02 | Shares are rarely insanely cheap for no reason ash.... | spawny100 | |
15/1/2024 13:45 | JSE is an insanely cheap share - surely an offer will be incoming at these low ball levels at a premium of 100% or more of today's price levels!!! JSE Share Price: 30.00p Brent: $78.25 JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 42.86% JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -67.81% Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017 GBPUSD: 1.2750 Jadestone 2024 Production Mid-Guidance (20,000-23,000 Boe/d): 21,500 Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): 13,800 Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): 20,000 Production Average for 2022: 11,487 Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 31 Dec 2023: $157,000,000 Cash (USD) 31 Dec 2023: $152,000,000 Net Debt (USD) 31 Dec 2023 : -$5,000,000 Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $78,000,000 Market Cap (GBP); £162,207,905 Market Cap (USD): $206,815,079 ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $211,815,079 EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Mid Guidance Production 21,500 Boe/d $9,852 EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): $15,349 EV/Barrel(USD) -> Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): $10,591 Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000 EV/Barrel (USD) JSE 2024 Top-Guidance Production + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf Acquisition: $34,194 2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000 EV/2P: $3.27 Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 18 Dec 23: 75.25p % Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 150.83% | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 13:44 | Yes in theory net cash could be greater than Mkt cap by middle of next year,but an unloved share in an out of saver sector, is going to have to put in the hard yards first (but still a little surprised by this AM's price movement) | e43 | |
15/1/2024 13:41 | Rather than going by 1AJM's negatively slanted take please review the below presentation for today's (15 Jan 2024) 2024 JSE Guidance Presentation / Webinar!!! 2024 Production Guidance -> 20,000 – 23,000 boe/d 2024 Operating costs -> US$240 – 290mm [Broadly flat on a comparable basis with 2023, with the year-on-year increase due to the addition of Akatara and CWLH 2] 2024 Capex -> US$80 – 110mm Therefore back of the envelope calculation using mid-guidance figures and $75 low case figure I am estimating gross profit -> Production 21,500 boe/d (Very conservative and likely above 23,000 boe/d) Brent $75 Gross Revenue = 21,500 * US$75 * 365 = US$588.56 Million Minus Operating Costs US$265 Million Minus Capex US$95 Million Gross Profit = 588.56-265-95 Gross Profit = US$ 228.5 Million Am I way off? | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 13:29 | At 32p share price Enterprise Value per 2p reserves is only $8.87 INCLUDING DECOMMISSIONING COSTS. ALSO ACQUISITIONS IN 2023 plus accretive reserves etc from Penmal drilling will result in a net addition to 2p reserves post 2023 production!!! SERICA PAID $18 per 2p for Tailwind!!! In high tax / high cost UK!!! Value disconnect for JSE is HUGE!!! | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 13:22 | Does the below include Akatara as I understand it - as gas is not lifted :) nigelpm15 Jan '24 - 13:05 - 20623 of 20624 0 1 0 Nice close to the call. 7.5m barrels to be lifted in 2024. At $70 - that's $525m of revenue in 2024 against market cap of c.$210m | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 13:21 | 1AJM draw on RBL is much less than I expected given Akatara nearing start and huge capex involving the same combined with JSE's stop start 2023 production. RBL at USD 152 million drawn year end 2023 as it USD 118 million drawn on 30 June 2023 - consequently JSE are only in net debt of USD 5 million given cash on hand. Also JSE have the standby facility of USD 30 million as a back-up which with cash on hand excluding RBL provides some liquidity. As I would expect that the RBL will not need to be paid instantly in the worst worst case scenario!!! | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 13:05 | Nice close to the call. 7.5m barrels to be lifted in 2024. At $70 - that's $525m of revenue in 2024 against market cap of c.$210m | nigelpm | |
15/1/2024 13:01 | What is the below supposed to convey?? From 1AJM That's 8,500-9,500bbl/s in those two assets, This plan is far greater than a plan that involves NOPSEMA directives. | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 12:59 | From 1AJM In 2022 Stag averaged a premium of $22 to Brent not a small premium of "$5" Doesn't such subterfuge discount credibility on all else!!! Assuming $20 premium for 2023 therefore $75 + $20 at 3,000 Boe/d average production = USD 104 million guidance for 2024 at $75 Brent!!! 1AJM15 Jan '24 - 11:59 - 20618 of 20620 Stag - Stag, 3,500bbls/d @ $80 (small premium) is $102mn revenue with $60-70mn a year operating costs. Are there CAPEX costs to go on top of this? | ashkv | |
15/1/2024 12:53 | 20-23,000 Production Guidance Broken Down Per 15 Jan 24 JSE Presentation Plus Call Montara (JSE 100%) Per presentation 2024 Guidance 5,000-6,000 Boe/d Crude taking into account downtime and natural declines per call. Current production is 7,000 boe/d per today's call. Akatara (JSE 100%) Guidance gas production ??? CWLH (JSE 33.33% post completion Q1 24)-> ??Guidance?? CWLH Production averaged 30,000 Boe/d Crude in Q4 2023 per call(5m:30s to 5m:50s) ?? JSE 33.33% = 10,000 Boe/d?? [Appreciate some CWLH production is Gas given to Woodside for free. However, per Another Oil and Gas report on JSE - Okha platform share of production to Woodside from CWLH (50% Woodside) comprising Australian Oil was 13k Boe/d in Sep 2023?] Penmal (JSE 100%)-> Current 7,000 Boe/d Crude Net to JSE) Stag (JSE 100%) -> 2,000 - 3,000 Boe/d Crude sold at a premium of $22 relative to Brent price in 2022. Sinphuhorm (9.52%) -> 1,500 Boe/d Dry gas Guidance per 15 Jan 2024 Call | ashkv |
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