Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 09/1/2024 11:44

Indeed but JSE will come good - I am tempted to add more given today's price of sub 34p

For 20,000 boe/d of current (mainly crude) production forecast to grow to 30,000 boe/d (crude plus gas) later in 2024 Enterprise Value [EV = (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD) = $223,217,196] / JSE's valuation is unreasonably low at present!!!

JSE Share Price: 33.64p
Brent: $77.75
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 60.19%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -63.91%
Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017
GBPUSD: 1.2700
4 Dec 23 RNS Revised Upward Range Q2-Q4 2023 Average Production Mid-Guidance (14,500 - 15,000 boe/d from APR 23 to DEC 23 ): 14,750
Jadestone Production Average from 1 Jan 23 to 4 Dec 23: 13,500
Current Production -> Nov 2023 last 2 weeks Avg Production (As per 4 Dec 23 RNS): 20,000
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 30 June 23: $111,000,000
Cash (USD) 30 June 2023: $118,782,000
Net Cash (USD) 30 June 2023 : $7,782,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $124,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £181,889,131
Market Cap (USD): $230,999,196
ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $223,217,196
EV/Barrel(USD) Revised Upward per 4 Dec 23 RNS Mid-Guidance for Q2-Q4 2023 Average Production: $15,133
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average from 1 Jan 23 to 4 Dec 23 (Montara Offline Q1 2023): $16,535
EV/Barrel(USD) -> Nov 2023 last 2 weeks Avg Production (As per 4 Dec 23 RNS): $11,161
EV/Barrel(USD) 2022 Actual Average Production: $19,432
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Forecast Production Mid Guidance (24,000 Boe/d): $9,301
Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) Current Production + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf: $39,894
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000
EV/2P: $3.44
Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 18 Dec 23: 75.25p
% Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 123.69%

[basem1] 09/1/2024 10:45

Oil stocks are poison at present it seems

[sea7] 08/1/2024 14:40

superb assessment OG Tourist - thanks

[ashkv] 08/1/2024 14:03

Thank you O&G Tourist - wonderful work on JSE and the other firms.

I like how you are candid with your views and mentioned in the I3E Energy write-up that AIM is the worst of the worst exchanges... not considered by institutional investors!

It would appear this mantra also applies to some level for the FTSE/Main Board relative to other European/US exchanges!!!!

Hopefully the UK Government, LSE etc - get their act on the road in 2024!!!

[fardels bear] 08/1/2024 10:13

I think that the commonly referred to mistakes can only be called such in hindsight. Imprudence might be a more apt description and then again with different outcomes where does the balance tip and they become accused of being overcautious?

[donald pond] 08/1/2024 09:44

It is a good read and very balanced. The company has had bad luck with Maari but the FSOP disaster and carrying on buybacks long after they should have stopped were basic errors imo. Easy to be captain hindsight I know

[fardels bear] 08/1/2024 09:25

Thanks fp. Still reading it.

[fireplace22] 08/1/2024 07:51

Here it is:

[fardels bear] 08/1/2024 07:49

I couldn't even find it.

[ogtourist] 07/1/2024 16:12

Thanks for the kind words, MT. I was a bit scared of the length and overloading of information, so I decided dividing it in two. I'd appreciate if you could share it.

[mount teide] 07/1/2024 14:05

OGtourist - Your substack article is easily the most balanced, elegant and persuasive research(the technical detail/accuracy is an exceptional piece of work!) I've read about the investment case of Jadestone Energy for many years. Makes most of the covering broker/analysts offerings appear embarrassingly shallow/very modestly researched. Many thanks.

Looking forward with great interest and anticipation to your second post next week.

[paduardo] 07/1/2024 13:10

Good article, look forward to the follow up thanks OGtourist

[ogtourist] 07/1/2024 10:35

We have written about Jadestone Energy in our substack. In this first post we discuss the origin of the company, Paul Blakeley's role, major shareholders and existing assets. We will publish next week a second post with more details on the financial situation and the valuation versus peers:
hxxps://open.substack.com/pub/zerogcos/p/a-troubled-apac-oil-and-gas-company?r=70r5i&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcome=true

[sleveen] 06/1/2024 08:57

Classic next leg up.

[lord gnome] 05/1/2024 01:15

Classic what?

[1ajm] 04/1/2024 16:53

Share price dropping is a classic.

[croasdalelfc] 04/1/2024 07:26

I would say 90% oil - 10% gas at 20kboepd.

[ashkv] 03/1/2024 10:14

20,000 boe/d - is nearly 100% oil at present!!!

Akatara gas 6-10,000 boe/d fixed price gas at a premium price to be operational late Q2 2024 per current guidance!!! For total production of 26-30,000 boe/d

Bitcoin is pure speculation - tomorrow it could drop 50%....

Add JSE while it is cheap :) This will come good - patience!!!

Opec has recently announced a monitoring meeting for early Feb 2024. IMHO oi price presently appears to be manipulated down by a dubious narrative derived via questionable IEA estimates, EIA reports of fictitious strong USA production and the USA controlling financial levers etc... I have seen in the last week of December 2023 - a well regarded academic on Bloomberg TV being cut off mid speech by the newscaster to change the topic when this academic was communicating oil is at or below long term averages once adjusted for inflation. It is not in the interest of the Western establishment given the Russian war, inflation from money printing etc for oil to be at fair levels...

I wouldn't bet against Opec + - it is the Federal Reserve of the oil markets... Physical markets will tighten.... and oil will zoom. Presently below long term average for oil once adjusted for inflation.

Also USA speculative positioning on crude close to all time lows...

In this situation it makes sense to not be overly long or short - market could do down, but it will be like a recoiled spring as if the market goes any further down US production will adjust.... WTI is getting to marginal barrel levels at present...

[1ajm] 02/1/2024 18:06

Cheers Tag,

Not sure what the split is for JSE 20,000boe/d. Straight oil vs gas split. When I did the h1 revenue the other day no one corrected me, surprisingly, as I just did 20,000 as bopd in the calculation.

and the 6,000 akatara gas is 5-6,000boe/d?

[tag57] 02/1/2024 17:28

1AJM, you can no doubt get a much more detailed answer but boed is barrel of oil equivalent per day, ie volume not revenue.

[1ajm] 02/1/2024 14:25

Can someone confirm to me when JSE say 20,000boe/d they mean close to 20,000 x the price of oil revenue?

how much of that 20,000 on conversion of barrels of energy, aka 1 unit doesn't = $75 (POO)

[1ajm] 02/1/2024 14:14

Another day of Bitcoin doing better than oil, what a time to be alive.

[s34icknote] 02/1/2024 10:40

18 Jan up date last year

[1ajm] 01/1/2024 17:56

Looking forward to it starting to look like a finished facility. Shouldn't be too long now. 1-2 updates?


Oil not doing great, see how tomorrow goes.

[mount teide] 01/1/2024 09:53

November 2023 - Lemang/Akatara Gas Processing Plant Progress Video now up on website