Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[sf5] 17/12/2018 09:45

Thanks mh - it's keeping the faith, I guess!

[adejuk] 17/12/2018 08:11

shorts now at 8.2%

[mhassanriaz] 16/12/2018 21:03

There is general economic conditions thats not looking good on the other end companies like Fujifilm, Phillips, IV-VI, Micron, Macom, Samsung and etc. investing Hundereds of Millions in Vcsels and 3d sensing geared towards lidar, 5g and general house hold devices. Foundries will lead as there will handful of player leading the market. I think Dr Drew nelsons words to BBC were quite Bullish as he has been saying IQE is not a one trick pony I believe he means it. Jam tomorrow and tomorrow is not far dont expect over night spikes unless someone is greedy to takeover.IMHO I know nothing. All I will say dont panic and dyor. Good night..

[blueball] 16/12/2018 18:15

Stay in cash.

[bulltradept] 16/12/2018 16:52

Interesting that when the death cross formed the price was around £1.25, now it's 63p. Funny how certain TA metrics can and do worn of impending value destruction.

Let's hope their first mover advantage is exactly that, eh?

[yankeekraut] 16/12/2018 16:46

airports gonna need lotsa VCELS for facial recog. / Biometrics...

[dr_smith] 15/12/2018 15:30

Bocase.
Cheers, yes to all.
On last line - that's the hard one, as the unexpected can and does happen and losses then become disproportionate on 'folio. Even as an old git, I haven't worked out that strategy choice, other than the one you can live with if it goes against expectations.

[bocase] 15/12/2018 14:08

Hello Dave..and anyone else interested.

Thank you for your interesting response.

Yes I am certainly not advocating that averaging down per se is a good strategy. There must be a caveat, as you point out, that the whole of the market is considered and that you perceive the original investment to be the best available or at least the best that you have researched. For example, since nothing has changed with IQE except perhaps for more saturation in the iphone market, which is more than compensated for by other end user applications then IQE does offer a higher margin of safety with a PE and PEG of half what it was was year ago and should be a safer investment.

As regards running winners, it is the power of compounding that needs to be tapped into. If compounding over time leads to an exponential curve, what a shame it would be to miss out on the right hand side of the chart.

[dr_smith] 15/12/2018 13:12

Bocase... You are addressing Jim, so hope OK to chip in.
".. buy more at a lower price, reducing their average cost and making it easier to turn the investment into a good one."

I think quite a few do that, but believe it is a falsehood.
If you have spare dosh, then look at the whole market for "best option" to balance the risk/reward of your normal strategy. To go in more, just so a paper entry shows a plus rather than a negative, or dig out of a hole is just kidding yourself.

I also believe in running winners, so long as that future return vision remains.
If other opportunites are spotted, then weakest current holding may have to go to take up. Fittest and most reliable continue to run.

Also, it is sensible to spread risk, be it co, sector, country. I don't spread over countries as foreign bad (company) news carries slower and investment could go south without timely warning signs.
I started with a normal slice of folio for IQE at low price, it's (net) escalation means I have run my winners but folio is way too much biased to IQE and I suspect many of us are in that boat.
I am therefore aware I should sell some to de-risk, but now is not the time, and as to whether I will sell at the right time, or continue on basis of expanding market (and running winners) I don't know yet.
I do formulas, but ultimate decisons tend to be gut and vibe that you develop from experience as an old git (it has its compensations). ;-)

Then there is the Planet of the Apes TV series, where Astronaut advised Ape rather than eating bigger wheat grain and sowing the rest, to do the opposite for better crops. I felt that was good investment advice, same as runing the winners.

That's my perspective for myself. Nothing you don't know or do yourself. :-)
Dave.

[bocase] 15/12/2018 11:13

Jim:

The author does make an important distinction that I did not make clear. The three categories above refer to investors with losing or falling positions.

He goes on to discuss what to do with winning positions and here great importance is given to running with winners and not taking profits too soon. Taking quick profits whilst not cutting losers, he likens to picking up pennies on a train track. It is fine until a train comes along. He has a slogan 'losers hang around with losers and winners hang around with winners'.

My opinion is that buying more IQE at this low level will prove to be the right approach.

[jimboyce] 15/12/2018 09:41

Therefore by definition long termers are Rabbits.

[bocase] 15/12/2018 07:41

kazoom:

I think your summary of events is very fair. You describe it as it is rather than how we would perhaps like it to be.

I am just re-reading the book, The Art of Execution, in which the author put investors into three categories, rabbits, assassins and hunters. When faced with an investment like IQE that has fallen, the rabbits do nothing but sit with it and hope. The assassins kill it at maybe 20% down and move into another stock and the hunters, if they believe in the long term story, buy more at a lower price, reducing their average cost and making it easier to turn the investment into a good one.

Although I bought originally at 19p, I sold out at 1.60, watched the price go to 1.80 and then bought in again around 1.50 as the price fell, I have been guilty of being a rabbit. There is nothing to say that a rabbit cannot become a hunter though and I intend to buy another significant chunk of shares in IQE at these lower levels which would make me even more overweight but am waiting to see a change in trend or evidence of significant profits becoming a reality.

I am also long gold shares as I believe gold is about to break out and have a long position in Hurricane Energy where there is a very compelling story, despite the weak oil price.

I obviously remain very positive on IQE in the longer term and it is, very important to have a long term view. We will enter 2019 with a much better margin of safety in IQE, and real prospects of significant growth.

[kazoom] 15/12/2018 01:28

bbonsall,

I think you are thinking up more complicated explanations than the reality.

Marshall Wace are able to close their position without driving the price up, simply because they were the only ones buying in volume. There was no competition, but seemingly an available poll of sellers (possibly some due to stops being hit, or margin calls resulting from other stocks in this challenging market).

As bocase says this potentially means that the price may have gone down further (many have said on this board that when the shorts close that will support the share price - although I seem to recall more exuberant words being used to describe what the effect would be). Or on the other hand, were there not a steady stream of sellers perhaps MW would have patiently waited until there was.

Whatever your views about the long term future of IQE (and I remain positive) I think there is still a strong case to say that the market has not fully appreciated the low level of profit for the current FY.

Any news about improved iPhone sales or completed qualifications for other customers will not impact the current year and will easily be dismissed as 'more jam tomorrow' - momentum and sentiment is not with IQE imho.

My personal view is that the year long downtrend will persist and that by the time of the results at the end of March (which I don't think will be greated kindly) and that the share price will most likely be in the range 60-75ish. It could well continue to fall further until they are able to post positive actuals or a cast iron improved outlook.

This is just my opinion and is why I am currently not holding. I could of course be proven wrong for any number of reasons, but I think that the odds are in my favour in this view currently.

Just a question - take it or leave it - are you considering how "the market" usually behaves and is most likely to continue to behave? or how you think the market should behave?

All just my opinion based on things I have observed and mistakes I have made, over time.

[bbonsall] 15/12/2018 00:47

bocase
I fear the answer is more sinister than you seem prepared to believe.
The reasons for being able to close short positions without causing a spike in share price revolve around the following.
1 it is AIM and so is well manipulated because of the lack of regulation vompared with the main market.
2 The big boys have the capability to use bots, spread false rumours and create false markets.

[bbonsall] 14/12/2018 23:51

Despite all the talk about iPhone XR being unpopular, the latest Which report rates iPhone XR above XS and XSmax. You never know, that might give XR a bit of a boost.
I am thinking of buying one myself because of Which. I had been considering XS.

[bocase] 14/12/2018 16:52

So how do Marshall Wace manage to reduce with the share price falling. Obviously, the answer is that the price would have fallen faster had they not reduced. The good news is that they do not see further falls presumably.

Very difficult to have a good day with all the macro events going on and the Dow falling 400+ points

Never mind soon be 2019 which could be a very good year for IQE.

[cheek212] 14/12/2018 16:48

Marshall Wace have reduced again and have now dropped off the tracker so total reported now down to 8.24%.

[dr_smith] 14/12/2018 16:34

You know.. now are the good old days. In 10 years we'll sail our private yachts to a warm exotic meet up point and talk about "I can remember when... ".

As I ponder..

Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landslide, no escape from reality
Open your eyes, look up to the skies and see
It's just a bulletin board, I need no sympathy
Because I'm easy come, easy go, little high, little low
Any way sentiment blows doesn't really matter to me, to me.

OK. Off topic, but it's after closing and it's hard for the bald to let their hair down! ;-)

Have a good weekend all and try and switch off from what you can't influence.

[diplomat65] 14/12/2018 15:52

Thanks for the support and encouragement fellow sufferers!! Yes, my holding is in a SIPP. I rang our Nomad, Cannacord a couple of days ago to ask if/when a trading update might be expected. I was told they had nothing on the horizon and normally know a couple of days before issuance. So still time for something to be released next week.

[bocase] 14/12/2018 15:40

We need a catalyst. Maybe when the new CFO starts we may get a few. Not even a word about when he is to start though. We were hoping it would be straight after New Year.

We may hear of course in the trading statement next week assuming there will be one.