Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[lord loads of lolly] 11/8/2022 09:17

sweenoid - it's not that we don't like more positive sector news. Just that IQE has singularly failed to benefit from it to date. So forgive us for remaining sceptical, but unless Americo can radically change course (which I'm hopeful ultimately he can), IQE will continue to make losses. Which for a "growth" company on a high P/E would mean even the current share price was way too high. Let's hope our faith in Americo is justified...

[bing_b] 11/8/2022 09:14

IQE is all about the future. Particularly with regard to its photonics products. Anybody not interested in 'potentially positive news' is clearly invested in the wrong company. Keep on posting Sweenoid 😀

[crosswires] 11/8/2022 08:35

Guildedge the worry is that it could take quite some time for the plan of “much higher production” to materialise. I suspect 2024 is the first year when they may be able to grow revenue and profits over single digits (and all of this over the current low base). It will be interesting to hear what Anerico has to say about foreard guidance in Sept (and the share price for the next 6 months will be dependent on this). If we have any hope of getting this share price back to £1+ it will take a significant turn around.

[sf5] 10/8/2022 18:23

Slightly off-topic, but David Stevenson's long email this morning has this interesting snippet. I suspect most would agree that IQE fails on the first three criteria (arguably negative pricing power sometimes) but might sneak in under the 4th and 5th: ''2. How to find a quality stock One of the great debates in investing has been about how you actually define a quality growth stock, especially in an inflationary world - and then use the right measures to screen through the market. Do you use conventional measures like earnings growth and the balance sheet strength or do you use more focused, nuanced, proprietary metrics? As part of this debate, I thought it worth highlighting what Stuart Gray, a Senior Director of Investments at Willis Towers Watson and co-Portfolio Manager of Alliance Trust, reckons are five key fundamentals that underpin an ‘attractive217; quality stock in our higher inflation world. These are: 1. Low Capital Intensity, ie companies that do not require a lot of capital to grow and are not burdened by rising debt service costs. An example would be US financial software provider, Intuit. 2. Pricing Power, companies that supply goods or services that are mission critical to their customers or those with a sticky customer base. Aerospace manufacture Transdigm, fits this bill. 3. Transaction-Based Revenue, where a company charges transaction fees as a percentage of the goods sold. Their revenues should rise as prices of the underlying goods rise. A company meeting these criteria is Visa. 4. Customer Efficiency Boost, ie products or services that boost efficiency for the customer. As everyone tries to cut costs, demand for these products and services may rise. US cloud-based software provider Salesforce is a good example. 5. Secular Growth, ie long term transitions that offsets cyclical trends such as digitisation, shift to cloud based systems, demographic trends etc, and here we can example, Argentinian online platform, Mercadolibre PS I've no objection to sweenoid continuing to post about new opportunities though we should never forget these are typically years into the future and some may not come off at all. Sorry to keep harping back to this, but whatever happened to those world-changing HAMR discs he was so excited about 3 years ago? When I last looked, I saw next to no mention on Seagate's website. Still gestating, or rendered obsolete by advances in SSDs? Fully accept that not every 'breakthrough' proves commercial but I imagine IQE must have put some heft into the concept.

[guildedge] 10/8/2022 17:25

Have to admire your belief in this firm Sweenoid. Think we all knew at start of year this was not a 6 month turnaround story. Most thought 12M. Still think 2024 till we start seeing any decent profits. From forecasts we know next year is already forecast as a small loss. At their AGM questions they pretty much admit their set up is geared for much higher production. If they get the big orders here and start using all the floor space/tools they have their is no reason why IQE can't be making decent profit here. They are 15-20m short revenue wise to break even. Least the share price reached some kind of floor today.

[sweenoid] 10/8/2022 16:53

More customer/ partner and market ‘news’ even if it’s for the future. If you don’t like these posts or think they are irrelevant then move on! I am the messenger here, if IQE can’t generate revenues from increasing markets like microleds ( Porotech)and successful partners it’s a management failure and yes I buy that, I bet under new leadership they do So even if some don’t like it I will continue to highlight potentially positive news 😂, you might not like what you get in life but for me I am determined to like what I get 😉, otherwise I would be OUT. hTtps://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2022/aug/trendforce-100822.shtml S

[bing_b] 10/8/2022 10:37

I suspect the China / Taiwan issue is also playing a more specific part at the moment given IQE's presence in Taiwan ....

[guildedge] 10/8/2022 08:35

From what I can tell a lot of the rise to 45p was shorts clearing. Spreadex reducing and nearly 4m cleared elsewhere by a short position shown on the US short tracking site dated at time of IQE peak. Maybe the shorters are entering back in at these higher prices?

[fuji99] 10/8/2022 08:18

I was not writing specifically about IQE but about the market as a whole. I just cannot see any positive indication we will have a healthy economy due to inflation affecting consumption and particularly geopolitical issues in both Ukraine and Taiwan. I agree with LongTallSally that profit warnings will start after summer - in the last quarter - because growth cannot be generated if consumers vanish. This will then be like a domino effect and will spread to every industry. I cannot see IQE or any other company prospering in the midst of a recession. My own view of course.

[longtallsally] 10/8/2022 07:49

I don’t think that is evidence that IQE will prosper Sweenoid, just a sign the sector has legs. As you know full well IQE has failed spectacularly, where the sector has succeeded enormously in the past 4 years, and although Americo makes the right “sounds” the proof of any gain in business for IQE will only be proved via growing revenues and profits. This years low single digit prediction is hardly inspiring but we can hope that the following year may see something a little better (but I doubt we will see more than mid to high single digits even then). It’s more likely that this is a longer play 2/3 years imo. I have lost track of the amount of company and sector related links you and others have posted, pretty much none have had any positive impact on IQE.

[sweenoid] 10/8/2022 07:31

Bbonsall- agreed Some evidence hTtps://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2022/aug/yole-090822.shtml S

[longtallsally] 10/8/2022 07:29

Of course it doesn’t have to impact IQE badly or as badly as other companies/sectors. However IQE hasn’t avoided many of the bumps in the road these last 4 years. I’m not selling my holding, but I think if you were a short term holder (or a trader) it probably made sense in the mid 40s last week. I do believe things will get better for IQE but I don’t think they will posting that much growth in the next 12 months so we’re unlikely to see the share price grow too much for a while imo. As I mentioned recently I think the markets (not all but definitely the US one) will face headwinds this autumn and winter, volatility will get higher as the summer holidays finish and earnings misses (and lower guidance) becomes more common.

[bbonsall] 09/8/2022 22:57

I think it is too easy to become over pessimistic about impending recession. Only part of IQE's business is consumer facing. During recessions States often increase soending on infrastructure to provide work and stimulate economies. In that context 5g rollouts may accelerate. This is where IQE could well benefit. Also, under new management, IQE may well gain a larger share of the market which could boost revenues even in a recession.

[longtallsally] 09/8/2022 17:46

Fuji the hedge funds are certainly building their shorts, accelerated last week. The Soxx is getting a decent haircut today after a big bounce from 355 to 425 in past month.

[fuji99] 09/8/2022 17:20

LTS: "It’s fascinating to see the hedge funds and institutions taking money out as the retail punters (who are a little addicted to buying) pour money in." - They're certainly anticipating the carnage before anyone else. They are doing it as professional thieves, in an orderly manner, without raising any alarm. Then they will open the shorting season to kick start the long bear market.

[longtallsally] 09/8/2022 17:14

I’m certainly mostly cash too, but as I highlighted recently I should have sold IQE at 45p to buy back lower but I’m not a trader. I expect they could go back to 30p. Certainly won’t be a gentle recession agreed.

[fuji99] 09/8/2022 17:00

LongTallSally: I am frankly worried about the markets as a whole because we are facing the most difficult times never experienced before. Even the harshest recessions of the past are not similar. They always end after some hardship. But today we are facing a big question mark in all fronts. The picture is not great. BoE flagged up a recession while the Russian conflict is still going on and ... out of the blue, we now have Taiwan/China entering possibly a conflict. Taiwan semi conductor world market share is 61% market and China is already stopping the supply of row materials to Taiwan foundries as punishment for Pelosi visit. When inflation is heading to 12% - 13% and energy bills are uncontrollable what do we expect really ? How one can feel comfortable investing in any sector ? To me it's not IQE, it's almost everything that will be affected. If consumers are hit how on earth will there be any growth ? Consumption is the spearhead of any growth. Without it nothing will budge. How people will "consume" if they cannot pay their energy bills and mortgages/rent ? I cannot see consumption while people are becoming poorer. IMO the market will be a Russian roulette until the existing major conflicts sort out themselves and the expected recession ends. IMO 2022/2023 could be the harshest year ever. I am completely out of the markets and 100% cash and will remain so for the time being.

[provonar] 09/8/2022 15:42

It's typical that we're getting some pull-back due to news that doesn't directly affect IQE - Nvidia are mainly in the (silicon) graphics card market, which has been hit by the double-whammy of plummeting crypto-mining demand and gamers being out-of-pocket with the inflation increases. These are markets that IQE aren't particularly exposed to, so the recent drop is also probably a bit of profit taking and bouncing off the lower-bound of the rising historical range, which is acting as resistance. However, a little tid-bit of IQE-relevant news: hTtps://www.eetasia.com/globalfoundries-qualcomm-extend-semiconductor-manufacturing-agreement/ This article is about GlobalFoundries and Qualcomm extending their RF-SOI production agreement. IQE, I'm relatively sure, are not involved in RF-SOI - however, this production is important for other parts of mobile Front End Modules which IQE do supply into (CS power amps etc.). Therefore, it's good to see GF consolidating parallel parts of the mobile wireless supply chain - as we've seen with the semiconductor crunch last year: bottle-necks in other parallel parts of the supply chain hit IQE, too. This will provide assurance that IQE's strategic partnership with GF can flow nicely, as throughput ramps up over the next year or two.

[longtallsally] 09/8/2022 15:00

Fuji indeed and there will be some more coming too. Things will get worse before they get better. It’s fascinating to see the hedge funds and institutions taking money out as the retail punters (who are a little addicted to buying) pour money in. I think we will get a good deal of volatility once the summer holidays are over

[fuji99] 09/8/2022 13:48

Nvidia profit warning did not help.

[crosswires] 08/8/2022 11:23

Indeed LTS it is nice to hear about sector performance but as you say the disconnect with IQE has been large of late so forgive me for not voting such posts up. Thanks for the link, I suspect AR won’t add a huge amount to IQE bottom line until 2025 onwards as big sales of Apples AR product (which will be the market driver) won’t happen until it’s untethered glasses and not a strap on goggle scenario Also kooks like your comment last week was bang on re 45p being the near term high, well called.

[meijiman] 08/8/2022 10:35

But I thought IQE had a global leadership position which implies tremendous pricing power. LOL. This company seems to like to work for customers for free.

[sf5] 08/8/2022 09:58

Thanks LTS. That's been my concern for a while re. all this new-fangled stuff - nice soundbytes but will take years to filter through to meaningful revenue. Any guesses as to IQE wafer revenue per device - I doubt as much as $1.00, perhaps only $0.20-0.50? But I've no idea how these contracts are priced - perhaps a flat amount to cover development costs plus so much per unit delivered. On a bum note, reports of delays to iphone14 shipments due to that Pelosi provocateur hTTps://www.gsmarena.com/iphone_14_could_be_delayed_due_to_growing_chinataiwan_tension-news-55325.php

[longtallsally] 08/8/2022 08:24

It’s great our customers are doing well but that has been the case for some time and it hasn’t transferred to us. Here is some more info on expectations for Apple AR product volume in 2023. Our tech will be inside but volume will be peanuts for the first few years at least, as it will be a high cost, niche product. hTTps://www.macrumors.com/2022/08/08/apple-ar-headset-1-5-million-units/