Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[guildedge] 20/11/2024 20:25

Looks like the reverse trade. Great to see large volumes now happening. We will soon find out who is buying/selling here. Had over 50M trades in last 3-4 days.

[longtallsally] 20/11/2024 17:08

Interesting that $1.5b grant doesn’t add anything to their (GF) share price!

Another big trade at end of day, unclassified so perhaps one was a buy and one a sell, thereby cancelling each other out and why share price was down on the day? 🤷🏼‍♂️

[wigoyle] 20/11/2024 16:35

I see GF got their dosh: $1.5bn

[lord loads of lolly] 20/11/2024 15:19

Best to use the London Stock Exchange itself for recorded trades:

www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/IQE/iqe-plc/company-page

[longtallsally] 20/11/2024 14:14

15m shares traded today been plenty of small
trades since market open so Advfn not working 100% at reflecting that for some reason. It’s often a bit flaky

[smithless] 20/11/2024 13:29

Looks like someone has bought £1.5m worth of shares at 12.42. Is this a good time get involved?

[jamesrowe] 20/11/2024 11:49

I am not seeing any trades on the chart above. Is no one buying/selling, is there a fault or has trading been suspended.....?

[lord loads of lolly] 20/11/2024 11:07

LTS - "As investors in IQE we will just have to stick with it"?

Depends whether you believe there'll be another upswing anytime soon. If not, the alternative option is simply to cut your losses & switch to a potentially more profitable option.

I'll be sticking with it, as the pattern here in the past has always been feast to famine. With fewer feasts than famines.

[longtallsally] 20/11/2024 09:23

Provonar, thinking about what you said, I suspect Americo went too early with the latest order of three or four Aixtron machines last year. I’m sure one will be put to good use in Taiwan but the others are likely lying dormant now we know IQE business has faltered.

I suspect that the reality is IQE won’t start to potentially prosper again until 2026/2027, seeing as 2025 less than spectacular earnings forecasts have been reduced once more.

As you point out, their focus now is to get to that point still functioning as a going concern. As investors in IQE we will just have to stick with it, as it’s obviously not going to be a quick turnaround.

[longtallsally] 19/11/2024 17:51

Great insight Prov, thought provoking

[provonar] 19/11/2024 17:09

Some strange parallels occurring at Wolfspeed:



They have also laid off their CEO after a massive share price slide. Wolfspeed (formerly Cree) are a pure-play Silicon Carbide epitaxy fab - somewhat comparable to IQE being a pure-play GaN/GaAs/InP/GaSb epitaxy fab. They also appear to have got their expansion completely wrong and have been down-sizing fast to stop huge cash deficits. In some ways, this is even more eyebrow-raising as the forecast for SiC growth is huge - however, the Chinese are ploughing massive subsidies into SiC, so it looks like the margins are just as negative on that epitaxy.

It makes you wonder whether the market forecasters, such as Yole, have been given far too much credence and the unfortunate epitaxy fabs that have swallowed the rosy predictions are now hitting the blocks. H2 2024 was expected to be a turn-around period - hence the lack of visible shorts - but obviously the market isn't bouncing back, no doubt still ham-strung by low consumer confidence due to the high inflation that has lingered on.

I wouldn't be surprised if Cubitt and Meier cut the work-force to the bone and enter a period of relative 'dormancy' until the market and orders pick up again - from the comments made, it looks like the potential funding on offer is not going to be splashed out on new tools until more substantial orders (or commitments) come in. Once that does happen, though, a subsidised future expansion will be much better for cash flow with the capex expenditure covered - which is one of the (if not the most) significant drag on the bottom-line.

So, no wonder Odier are happy to bridge the gap with Convertible Loan Notes - those will turn in to a roughly 12% dilution in due course for those of us who are long, but if it can see IQE through to the market recovery (and long awaited, mythical GaN ramp) it'll be worth it. Of course, the bridge might not extend far enough - DYOR.

[bbonsall] 19/11/2024 16:30

I think you all know the saying that there are two types of analyst.
Those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know!

[lord loads of lolly] 19/11/2024 14:24

LTS - agreed. All analysts are a complete waste of space & should be totally ignored.

When events change, they simply change their mind. Thereby proving their utter uselessness.

[longtallsally] 19/11/2024 13:31

I mean these analysts are hilarious, literally just followers of old news with no actual real pre event analysis. They have no idea where this is heading.

[guildedge] 19/11/2024 11:50

Latest broker report downgrades to 20p from 45p.

[longtallsally] 19/11/2024 09:28

Looking forward I think as always with IQE the issue will be the timing of when to bank the inevitable next share price rise. A look at the chart and history tells us it is littered with huge rise and falls over the past 20 years after times of hope and the next disappointment. Unless IQE look like they will have to be fire sold next year the share price will recover, to some degree it always does, but perhaps with just lower highs (80p won’t be seen for many years again imo)

If the Taiwan IPO is successfully handled and IQE don’t issue another profit warning on next years now reduced earnings then expect the share price to be in the 20s or 30s before this time next year. The problem for investors will be as happened this year people will get carried away yet again (see Crosswires end of year share price predictions list), BUT unless there is concrete proof of big new orders we would all be best ignoring anyone predicting huge revenue increases without such proof as it often comes to nothing (see Americo Lemos or Captain Calamity as he is now known).

Personally if the share price does recover well into the 30s then I will be selling and not looking back. Holding IQE has been far too stressful and disappointing and if break even could be achieved then I would be satisfied to have just lost time but not money with my investment here.

[picobird] 19/11/2024 07:30

From the Update.

‘ The Group also continues to have a constructive dialogue with HSBC, and the Directors do not foresee the need to raise further equity should these ongoing discussions progress as expected.’

[lpavlou] 18/11/2024 21:58

The CLN will normally convert at a point in time, usually circa 3 years. Depending on the terms, if the share price is below 15p, Odier can elect to get repaid rather than convert their loan into shares. There is normally a set-up fee too, so Odier might get paid 3percent of the loan as a fee on day 1.This is expensive funding, but looks like HSBC weren't prepared to loan them any more cash

[guildedge] 18/11/2024 21:33

With the covertable loans. If the share price reaches 20-25p they can opt to convert the loan then and there and net 10p? Or do management get a say first?

Oh it's proposed. So not yet agreed,

[lpavlou] 18/11/2024 20:48

As predicted, once the CEO is fired, next comes the profit warning and after that a capital raise.The CLN will be at an interest rate of between 12 and 15 percent pa They will also have security over company assets after HSBC. I would say it will be over a 3 year period with interest accruing. The conversion price of 15p is a red herring. The RNS for me signals the entire company is in play and up for sale. Question is, who wants it and What will they pay.

[guildedge] 18/11/2024 17:28

Best just to forget about the list. Glad I didn't put my name to that. Nick and LOL came closest but the share reached about 34p and then lost 60-70% of it's value.

Maybe there is room for recovery in H1. Can't get worse can it?

[fuji99] 18/11/2024 16:17

With Government helped finance, AstraZeneca should buy out Pfizer, then, as we would have the rights to Viagra, the economy may stay up longer.

We propose to prevent identity theft instantly by calling everyone Chris.

[fuji99] 18/11/2024 16:03

Now, those who never knew what is a labour governement will understand why they are kicked out for decades.
It doesn't mean the actual tories are good.

Thus why I always opted for the Loony party.

Everything we need has an answer.


Check out a few examples of their manifesto !
Better than hypocrisy we see everyday !

Immigration..
We will replace employees of the Border Force with GP receptionists. This will dramatically reduce the number of people getting in.!

Cost of Living
To help with the cost of Living and to raise money for the Treasury we will Convert Numbers 10 and 11 Downing Street into a Hair salon, Which we will call ‘Government CutZ’.

M.O.T…
The MOT is an annual test to ensure that your car is roadworthy. We will introduce a ROT, an annual test to make sure all roads are car worthy.

NHS…
In an effort to reduce the problems faced by the NHS , it is proposed to reduce pregnancy from nine to seven months.

Migration of Nets…..
We will reduce net migration by making sure that any nets are secured more firmly to the ground.

Socially smart…..
All Social Media sites will be taken down for one day a week for a “Remember when we used to talk” day.

[lord loads of lolly] 18/11/2024 16:03

Can I have whatever 46maxon's on please?