Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bocase] 04/12/2018 07:34

Steve:

Yes the Canadians have restricted supply, OPEC style, to remove an inventory build up.

That, together with optimism over the OPEC meeting has pushed the oil price up again this morning. Should give us another small lift.

[steve73] 04/12/2018 02:54

Wbodger... did you see the size of the buoy? It's huge (with plenty of spare riser slots, hey-hey). A "fake" buoy would have needed to be equally large (if not larger to adequately cover/protect the moon-pool (which I'd guess is some 20-30m in diameter). A simple plate cover is much easier... even with the underwater removal required.

Also, the fake buoy would need to negatively buoyant or you'd never be able to remove it without flooding it, and then you'd have the risk of damage to the risers, etc, and recovery problems in the field.

This plate protection method is well established.. no point changing something that works. (Kraken did the same, also removed in "Rotherham"; Catcher's was removed in Nigg.)

btw, OP recovered nicely in US trading after London close.. finished about flat on the day, and up again this morning.. It seems everyone is bidding oil up, except the septics' who are desperately trying to kill any rises.

[xxnjr1] 03/12/2018 23:13

The UT transaction was well below the bid at close. Interesting in a not great sort of way!

Is this the difference you are referring to DB?

16:29:48 44.5600
16:35:17 44.4000 UT

I'm not going to loose any sleep over it!

[davidblack] 03/12/2018 19:59

The UT transaction was well below the bid at close. Interesting in a not great sort of way!

[the guardian] 03/12/2018 19:57

I don't know about that. Unlike buyers, sellers always seem to have infinite pockets.

Should see a good run up to Christmas IF all goes well - particularly the weather.

[mad foetus] 03/12/2018 16:09

Looks like a 600k sale went through. There will be a limit to how many the seller has

[bocase] 03/12/2018 15:54

I added another 16K too foetus. I think we might get something out of the OPEC meeting on the 6th apart from closing in on FOIL. Very overweight now with more than 150K shares but these opportunities only come along rarely.

[the guardian] 03/12/2018 15:53

Thanks v much for the seafish link steelwatch.

I hope that we manage to couple up before Christmas, it would be a great present for all HUR investors.

[mad foetus] 03/12/2018 15:45

I bought some more today at 45.1. Dreadful timing but it won't make much difference in a month or so.

[davidblack] 03/12/2018 15:09

On what was likely to be a good day on the back of the rise in the POO we seem to have our ever present bulk sellers liquidating again.

We have seen decent buying today but someone or some group seem more than happy to sell in volume around 45p.

I wonder how they will behave post hook up?

Or rather when will the sentiment move back in favour of Hurricane. Fascinating to watch!

[bocase] 03/12/2018 13:34

Tournesol:

True. Totally understand that.

[tournesol] 03/12/2018 13:32

Buzz - OK sorry for misunderstanding.

Bocase - yup agree - short term market view (and hence share prices) are bound to be affected by short term POO - but obviously there is often a divergence between price and value.

[gary38] 03/12/2018 13:26

Thanks steelwatch

First Published: 09 July 2018 | Latest Update: 29 November 2018
Lancaster Field – Development
The Aoka Mizu FPSO is currently in Rotterdam. The FPSO will be transiting to field on the 15th December 2018 (at
the earliest) as part of the Lancaster EPS Development Project. The transit is expected to take approximately 6 days
with the FPSO due on location on 21st December 2018 (at the earliest).
The Lancaster Turret Mooring System (TMS) is installed with the TMS buoy sitting 20m below the sea surface. The buoy is
moored in place by 12 wire and chain mooring lines that extend up to 1290m from the TMS buoy to driven piles. The mooring
system will remain in this configuration with the buoy at -20m until the FPSO arrives.
The co-ordinates for the operations are listed below:
Coordinates
LDC5 Manifold Centre 60o 11.947’N 03o 51.859’W
Aoka Mizu FPSO Turret Centre 60o 10.794’N 03o 52.196’W
For further information: Jo Valentine, Hurricane Energy, T [phone] email: [e-mail]

[wbodger] 03/12/2018 13:02

Steve73, re unwelding the plate, silly question I suppose but why don't they travel with a fake buoy fitted and simply change to the real one at site? The real buoy has been attached to the sea-bed lines while the AM has been slogging back to 'Rotherham' (fantastic typo from earlier, well worth a repeat). They have illustrated a connect/reconnect procedure on video, so it must be simple enough?

(Great posts by the way, very lucid.)

[steelwatch] 03/12/2018 13:01

Scroll down to page 8:

[bocase] 03/12/2018 12:57

tournesol:

I totally agree with you that the oil price over the next twenty years or the life of the asset is what is important, however, the 'perception' of where that price will be in the future is bound to be influenced, significantly, by the price today, hence the important correlation displayed by the markets and that correlation exists, of course, whether or not we think it should.

[buzzzzzzzz] 03/12/2018 12:13

tournesol

Not sure why you think my post was aimed at you, you have worked in the industry and your opinion is far more informative than mine!

I was having a pop at those who moan like crazy when the price goes down and do not realise that market sentiment will always ignore fundamentals and throw the baby out with the bath water.

[tournesol] 03/12/2018 11:44

Buzz

You seem to have a bit of a beef going on here because I have previously said that the relationship between valuation of assets (and whole companies) is not a simple linear/synchronous one. Nor even (with respect to Bocase) a geared/synchronous one

What matters to the post-facto valuation of an asset is what the POO has been throughout its productive life. You can look back at a depleted field and see what it was worth over its lifetime.

What matters to the forecast/forward valuation of a current/future producing field is the expected level of POO throughout its remaining productive life.

If everybody expects POO to average $75 for the next 20 years then that is the figure that buyers will use to decide how much they are willing to pay and sellers will use to decide how much they are willing to accept. Subject the bleeding obvious.

If forward expectations are say, $60, $65, $70, $75 for the next 4 years and then a flat $75 thereafter, a small change in spot POO today will make little difference to the rest-of-life valuation of a field with 30 years of production.

What matters is not a spike/slump in POO per se, it's how that spike affects long term expectations that matters. Long term expectations do fluctuate, but they follow a smoothed out curve with relatively gentle cycles/waves.

The oil industry view of POO futures is a bit like that famous description of the market as being bi-polar. It swings from optimism to pessimism. The best time to sell an asset is at the end of an optimistic phase before pessimism sets in. The best time to buy is at the end of the pessimism phase.

The key question for investors in E&P to ask themselves is where do we stand in the balance between optimism and pessimism re the long term POO? It's not about an extra $5 here or there. It's about the level of POO over the next 20 years. That's what we should be trying to get our heads around.

[the guardian] 03/12/2018 10:17

That's a good way of looking at it bocase.

[fatnacker] 03/12/2018 10:07

Buzzzz I think peoples differences lie in the mechanics of why its following brent.

[buzzzzzzzz] 03/12/2018 10:01

Steptoe you would think!

But their are a lot of posters who seem to think otherwise!

[steptoes yard] 03/12/2018 09:26

Why would the share price not be linked to the price of oil?

[fatnacker] 03/12/2018 09:06

If that's not a clear indication that the share price is following the price of brent I don't know what is.