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Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads
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|Being lazy, but are they using the same company that did the previous CPR to do this one?|
|This CPR is about the two horizontal producers on Lancaster, 205/21a-6 and 205/21a-7z. Nothing more. If it turns out to also include Halifax we will have been misled.
Halifax, Lincoln and the wider issues around connectedness is for the later CPR planned for Q4.|
|AIUI the CPR is the work & (responsibility!) of the company commissioned. However, they don't collect up all the data & head off to deliberate in a darkened room for months. They'll look at the data, listen to the company's interpretations & make their own minds up. However, the key point, again AIUI, is that the CPR team & HUR will be regular contact & discussion as the process proceeds.|
|Yep larger than 75% discount on most CPRs is almost guaranteed.
All caused by the way these CPRs are put together and maybe closer to 90% discount to the eventual size.
Not that it starts that way of course. But the cumulative affect of assuming:
the height is only 85%,
the width 85%,
the length 85%,
Viscosity 10% less
recovery 25% not 40%
Multiply those factors all together and you shrink a large initial very large CPR number into a much small one.
However if our small CPR number is currently around the 590m barrel mark then just think how big this will be at the end say after thirty years of production and twenty years more to go?
That is why BP or Shell who have those time horizons are the most likely buyers.|
|Hmmmm, after the election then??|
|tournesol's post above gives a really good description of what is required. Remember that because of the huge potential here all eyes will be on the report. The CP's reputation is at stake. He will take as long as it takes to be entirely satisfied before he issues his report.|
|Just one point EVERY CPR has errors given the dataset they are examining is imperical and they are trying to predict the future.Normally they are proven to be very conservative with the end result being better.|
|"Could be in the form of a placing at a discount to the current share price ?"
Jimarilo - One of the most pertinent Q's to think about and you get advised to sell your shares......
I ponder this one daily and have asked the question on here several times:
Are HUR management happy with the share price at this level (possibly for the reason above) or spitting teeth that it's being help back to suite others ends.
|Good post tournesol.I quite agree. Patience should win out here. I'm also impressed the share price hasn't drifted lower with a lack of news. Sure, any rally of the share price will see our usual seller appear again no doubt, but there seems to be a rather nice albeit subtle underpin of the price at these levels.|
a competent person (CP) is an expert in the field with significant experience.
to produce a competent person's report the CP looks at the seismic data and its interpretation and the models which have been created from the seismic of the subsurface geological structures
think of seismic as radar images
think of interpretation as 1) image enhancement to bring out indistinct features of those images and 2) correlation/cross-reference o with other images from similar or associated areas. Imagine you were looking at a low resolution radar image of a vauxhall astra for example you would be greatly assisted by having other, possibly better images to compare/contrast it with. That would help you to avoid misidentification or confusion with other models.
Modelling is creating a 3D representation of the geological structures. Think of this as figuring out the dimensions of a buried storage tank.
So the CP is first of all looking at the way that the buried storage tank has been characterised and figuring out if the underlying assumptions have been realistic or optimistic.
Then the CP looks at the analysis of the rock strata - what are the characteristics of the rocks in question. How porous are they? what is the capacity of the storage tank - is it like a sponge? is it like a bucket of gravel? is it like solid granite? So that gives us the capacity of the storage tank to contain hydrocarbons.
Next look at the drilling results. Do they tie in with the preceding work or contradict it?or more typically nearly tie in but with some differences.
Next look at the actual contents of the buried storage tank as revealed by the drill bit. Is there oil? is there gas? does the rock have the expected characteristics? how deep does the oil/gas go down? does it fill the whole of the tank or does a thin layer float on top of water saturated rock?
By this time the CP should be able to express an informed opinion on how much oil/gas which exists in the subsurface structure and on how much is extractable - you can never get it all out.
Then the CP turns to the economics. It mightb e possible to extract 60% but you need lots of wells. The project economics might indicate that only the easiest to extract stuff can be produced at a reasonable margin. So economic recovery might be 18% say.
So now the CP can say that the economically recoverable oil/gas is X and that it will cost $Y to get it and take Z years - hence the value of the project is $V.
Of course all this has been done already by the client co. But the CP has to do it over again and make sure that the assumptions used are realistic/conservative and the calculations are error free.
With complicated fields like HUR's the above is a mighty big job and the margin for error is 0%. So it takes time.
Patience is required.
|Let them take their time to get the CPR right. Its a complex group of fields and with the Halifax discovery, loads more data will be available for them to sift through. I'd rather they paint an accurate picture than act in haste. Financing will happen in due course. As they have alluded to previously, it'll likely be a combo of sorts (equity, debt, credit etc). But the CPR will put some third-party backing to what's actually been discovered. Until then, patience is the order of the day.
|IEA Sees Much Tighter Oil Market As New Discoveries CrashOil discoveries hit a record low in 2016 as severe budget cuts and low oil prices have plagued the oil and gas industry|
|Unfortunately, in my career as a registered nurse, a CPR in the O & G industry ws never discussed :-)
I have Googled "CPR" and gleaned some info....but not EXACTLY what it entails.
Can you oilies please enlighten me as follows.
1) There is an assumption here that a larger oil find would require a longer / lengthier CPR. Is this so.
2) What does a CPR entail. Is it simply an independent means of qualifying a company's own findings.
3) Surely it can only entail interpretations of the company's own cuttings and samples.
Any info would be welcome as I can't be the only ignorant member of this bb
|well the more Fridays that come and go without news the more I buy ,don't look a gift horse in the mouth.
its delay means nothing to me just exactly what ive wrote above.|
|Jimarilo, You are obviously unhappy so why don't you sell your shares and move on.|
|Another 4 day wait...at least! But we didn't want an rns on a Friday anyway?
Can't read this one, in fact I don't suppose the CEO can either!🤔|
|Thanks GaryM. All sounds good to me.|
i believe its being held back for commercial reasons, in that its crucial in regards to possible farm in news.....|
|Based on what Jim?|
|I can see we will be in for a disappointment short term
Could be in the form of a placing at a discount to the current share price ?
CA maybe doing what we all should be doing|