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HUR Hurricane Energy Plc

7.79
0.00 (0.00%)
22 Apr 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Hurricane Energy Plc LSE:HUR London Ordinary Share GB00B580MF54 ORD 0.1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 7.79 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 7.79 GBX

Hurricane Energy (HUR) Latest News

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Date Time Title Posts
15/4/202408:09HURRICANE ENERGY - Fractured Basement WOS 38,015
26/7/202309:36THE REASONS I VOTED NO TO PRAX SCHEME - MK II2
28/4/202321:04My serious musings over voting NO-
23/4/202311:04Hurricane Energy PLC57,153
20/3/202319:11Update-

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Posted at 25/2/2024 13:37 by senseman
senseman today LSE 13:34 re DCUs
Crucial to whether we hit 12.5p.p.sh max via DCUs is whether Prax/HUR purchase current oil or gas producing assets under the HUR banner. Because profit from such is added to well P6 profits, from which our 17% DCU quantum flows. The promise was that purchase of such assets would be pursued in order that HUR's tax credits could be monetized.

A month ago I I expended several hours difficult grunt work ascertaining from 2 impeccable sources - whose position and interest would be advantaged to report that producing assets were being procured - that to date no such purchases had been attempted, and that no dialogue with any possible producing asset was currently occurring. Since I want and need DCU's to bring us 12.5p.p.sh total at least if not more so than most, it depressed me having to report what I had found. Intelligent readers know that if I report something as fact, it can be relied upon.

My reward for these endeavours was to be called a liar by our resident nutter - water off a ducks back since all identify him as such. Disconcerting however were insinuations from perennial resident lazies (my terminology) esk & broom that the nutter and I are made of the same stuff and, to quote esk...'...both poison to this B while the company was listed and are still at it now.' The 'lazies' never do any grunt work - never have. They mysteriously pop up whenever I post - with factually absurd, snide comment. Do they not realise how daft they sound to intelligent readers when similarly bracketing me and the nutter? Do they take you, the intelligent reader, for a fool?

The failure to purchase producing, profit-generating assets is already grievously damaging our chances of seeing us hit 12.5p.p.sh by the end 2026 cut-off date. We are currently looking at more like 9.5-10.0p total. Perhaps those who swore ('the lazies' included) that 'the deal' was great because we were nigh on certain to get 12.5p total might upon reflection exercise humility!.

Against this massive 'no-buying' disappointment, it has become clear within the grown-up ADVFN discussion Laser refers to - the essence of which I will copy & paste here in a subsequent post - that 2 green shoots of optimism are appearing, ie:

i) Nov 23 production 6870 bpd, against Prax/HUR projection 6700 bpd
Dec 23 production 6720 bpd, against Prax/HUR projection 6300 bpd
Jan 24 product not yet known, against Prax/HUR projection 5900 bpd
The import being more frequent offloads, hence more DCU cash. To illustrate - a 400 bpd increase over projections, equates to Brent price of $85 when compared with $80 projected
ii) Brent current $82, with most analyst projecting $85-$90 2024 Q2 Q3 Q4
The import - Brent at say $85 + $5 pb production increase = $90 pb
$90 x 540,000 = $48,600,000 x 17% = $8,262,000 divided by 2 bill shares = 0.413p p.DCU p.offload
$80 x 540,000 = $43,200,000 x 17% = $7,344,000 divided by 2 bill shares = 0.367p p.DCU p.offload

slava ukraina
senseman
Posted at 23/2/2024 16:06 by senseman
laser
thanks for donkey work and explicit directs - worked a treat. have printed off to retain.
unless am blind, to correct for accuracy you no consequence misread dec info, which says 6720 bpd not 6920
but main and crucial for us are 2 good indicators.
i) hur projection nov 23 6700 bpd actual 6870 bpd
dec 23 6300 bpd actual 6720 bpd
this means evidence building production depleting slower than hur/prax projections
meaning offloads more frequent - effectively equates to higher oil price if applied to hur/prax mickey mouse projections
ii) brent $82 with MOST forecasters saying $85-$90 for 2nd half 2024, and 2025
will copy and paste to LSE
laser - your view are we likely to get dcu 1 offload end march/early april (and 3 offloads in dcu payment end sept/early oct? or 2 offloads march/april and 2 in sept/oct?
sense
Posted at 24/1/2024 01:02 by senseman
Simon
Magic is referring to the 2021 95% dilution restructuring attempt which failed (I call it HUR 1). At the start of the 3 day High Court hearing the shares were 0.6p. Had the attempt succeeded, 95% dilution would have rendered the shares worthless, ie: toilet tissue, and bondholders would have owned the company. For 4 months I worked full time to, along with CA, stop the attempt, whilst knowing I was endangering myself financially as Covid had killed dead my self employed income stream as an athletics coach, and I knew I should have been developing a new income stream. I did what I did because the old adage 'If not me, then whom?' quickly became apparent. HUR 1 was THE crucial episode/timespan
You are referring to the successful sale of the company to Prax (I call it HUR 2). Most of us knew fighting it was, bar a miracle, likely to fail. But with so much at stake, and after so much effort in 2021, a small group of us could not sleep at night unless we at least tried. And I would make 2 points:-
1. The DCU payments represent 17% of HUR's Well P6's profits. Prax retain 83%. Given our initial 6.02p payment + 6.48p payments are capped at 12.5p max (which we will not achieve before the end 2026 cut-off end date because there is no sign of Prax/HUR acquiring other production assets to increase profits from which our 17% is derived, or of drilling well P8 to do similar), consider what the share price would now be if HUR 2 had failed and a still shareholder owned HUR was banking 100% of well P6's profits?. I repeat - just 17% of profits caps us at 12.5p. How far above a 12.5p share price would we be now be if a still shareholder owned HUR was banking 100% of P6 profits?
2. No one, bar the 3 of us who as shareholders attended the Sanctioning Hearing when the judge OK'd the sale, and stood and spoke in the 'barrister's section' against HUR's KC & Prax's QC, will ever understand how close we came to succeeding. The only thing which failed us was the lack of a shedload of expensive independent expert reports to back up our arguments, in the face of HUR & Prax's +£1 million quid's worth of legal preparation and 'expert opinion'. The judge (and all attending, including both KC & QC) knew it was a stitch up. But the judge effectively declared that despite misgivings, he had no option but to be guided by the +£1million quid's worth of 'expert opinion' He did have another option, but was not brave enough to exercise it in our favour.
I am fighting for financial survival on account of my HUR efforts - which is why until now has not allowed me the time to become au fait with the DCU minutia - but which now makes it imperative that I do. That is why I have reached for a quick handle re how much we can expect going forward, and when.
Magic - thanks for kind words
Posted at 25/10/2023 08:08 by laserdisc
extract from Crystal amber accounts rns today
At the start of 2022, the Fund's holding of just over 575 million shares, representing 28.9 per cent of Hurricane Energy's issued share capital, had a carrying value of £23 million. In June 2023, following the acquisition of the entire issued share capital by Prax Exploration, the Fund received cash proceeds of £34.7 million. However, those proceeds are not the end of the Hurricane Energy journey. The offer included a deferred consideration element based on revenues from April 2023 until January 2026. Earlier this month, the Fund received additional proceeds of £1.8 million from these deferred consideration units. This equates to 2.1p a share to the Fund's shareholders. Should the deferred consideration units achieve their maximum payout of £37.3 million, equivalent to 41.6p per Crystal Amber share, the total potential consideration due relating to the sale of the Fund's shareholding in Hurricane Energy would be £72 million. This compares very favourably with, the January 2022 stock market valuation of £23 million.



Hurricane Energy is an example of the Investment Manager's determination to fight for Shareholders when necessary and the financial reward in doing so. Shareholders will recall the 2021 judgement from the High Court which prevented a 95% dilution for ordinary shareholders which the Hurricane Energy management had sought to push through. Whilst market participants had written off Hurricane Energy as little more than an embarrassment, the Investment Manager, with its long standing and deep technical knowledge, fought and succeeded in blocking the restructuring. Without the Company's intervention, Shareholders would have been deprived of any meaningful exposure to this improvement in the Company's fortunes.
Posted at 19/6/2023 09:52 by senseman
Courtesy senseman LSE
7 JUNE HEARING - FULLER REPORT (PART 1) - APOLOGY FOR DELAY Today 09:40
After Johns’ forum suggestion to contest the Scheme, a group of 9 resulted, namely:- Cat5: Johns: oldman45: picsmaister: RodneyT: ronwoking: senseman & 2 others who wish anonymity. All contributed, so forum thanks should go to the collective all. It just fell that 3 of us were able, and best equipped, to attend on 7 June.

We tried our utmost. The Judge in giving Judgement directly praised our Document quality, the collective effort, & the +30 private investor emails/documents he received. Our skill-lacking area was court-presentation a barrister or solicitor would have provided. HUR had Kings Counsel, Dentons solicitors, Stifel, Maris, Chaffe and others. Prax had Counsel & solicitors

HUR & Prax lodged large document bundles/witness statements (similar to 2021). It’s KC stated HUR knew from 2021 & current monitoring of LSE forum that SHs were activist, disagreed the Scheme, and may act. They were clearly genuinely worried. The Judge had sight of these but we did not - having emailed our Doc to the Court only on 6 June, we had not 'served' it on HUR, and thus left no time to be served HUR’s document bundles. The downside for us being the bundles included all the $3.4mill promotional guff including HUR’s fairytale P6 standalone 2026 8p end-figure (ie. magically marginally less than Prax’s minimum end 2026 figure) and high risk 1 well 1 pump exagerations. Astonishingly, even HUR KC's skeleton argument (we were provided copy at kick-off) was 25 PAGES LONG, and lodged at Court 2 days prior with an estimated 2 hrs judge’s reading time.

The 90 minute listed hearing lasted 11.30am-4.30pm, with1 hour lunch. Judgement reading took 45mins. The judge read HUR's gumph in previous days. Our late Document & appearance threw a considerable spanner in both HUR's easy-expectations, and the Judge's thinking, as our arguments were too meritorious to be easily dismissed.

Constrained by time & resource, our Document was merely 6 (SIX) pages, but of absolute research-imbued quality. It dealt almost exclusively with the head count (50%) issue. It contained only a paragraph regarding the 'fairness' issue the judge declared his overriding concern. He was guided by HUR's rogue P6 standalone cash projection figures being less than P6 under Prax, by HUR's rogue 'risk assessment', and the 87%-88% achieved by value vote (the 75% vote - thus 'most people’ being happy' – despite HUR & Ker’s 46% holding of all shares making the 75% vote a formality). Arguing verbally on these ‘fairness̵7; issues without our Document (+ an evidence bundle) substantively addressing them was a mountain too high. The Judge made clear that though cognisant of the 2021 Judgements, he was bounden to be guided by the evidence bundles provided by HUR. Our lack of time and resource to systematically dismantle HUR’s figures and assessments aka 2021 gave the judge an easy and perhaps understandable way out.
Posted at 27/4/2023 16:47 by senseman
courtesy of dflynch LSE 15.22
"HURRR’s dastardly scheme Fails! Will Crystal Amber revert to Plan A?
Well, we have less than a week to go now until we know the result of the Court meeting.

It will be an interesting result as clearly shareholders are divided with regard to the scheme as it stands.

Clearly, if the HURR BoD manage to achieve the result they desire, then the fight is not over. I am sure that we will have a re-run of the Convertible Bond issue and the involvement of the Courts.

Of course, the HURR BoD may fail so what could we expect?

I would think that the Dutch investors would immediately pull-out. They are only here for the speculative future income and their exit, probably at a loss as the share price will invariably drop, temporarily with the disposal of the Dutch shares.

But what about the major shareholders Kerogen and Crystal Amber.

Kerogen are a bit of a dark horse in this saga – they have inscrutable influencers but as an investment, HURR is probably worth peanuts and no more than an irritant that they wish clear of their investment desktop.

Crystal Amber’s situation is uncertain, but a bit of speculative analysis on my part wonders if they would revert to their earlier plan A – Plan Albion, calling an EGM and removing the incompetent HURR board and substituting Albion as a new and experienced BoD.

I believe that unwarranted pressure has been applied to CA to agree to the deal. I wonder if HURR’s share price would have risen back to 40p if Saba (CA’s major shareholder) had not insisted on liquidation of the fund (irony pervades CA’s major shareholder bullying minor shareholders into accepting liquidation of the fund when it was not necessarily in the majority of individual shareholders, best interests).

The liquidation of the fund is not going well (De-La-Rue is proving to be a problem) and maybe, because of pressure from their major shareholder, and in desperation, their better investment judgement was set aside and the PRAX offer accepted.

If CA were to revert to their original, and preferred plan of EGM and Albion installation. And Albion were willing to run Hurricane, then we could have the opportunity to re-discover “those missing billions of barrels of oil” that suddenly disappeared during the "Maris era". Furthermore, we would have a competent team running the company with the ability to plan and co-ordinate the proper exploitation of HURR’s acreage.

HURR’s future is NOT limited to P6!"
Posted at 26/4/2023 23:57 by senseman
Courtesy of LSE's DF (dflynch) original post
CRUCIAL - Vote your HUR shares today
It is now getting critical that Investors, if they have not already done so, cast their votes for the Court Meeting and the Extraordinary General Meeting taking place on Thursday 4th May.

At the Court meeting individual Investors on the HURR company register at 6pm on Monday 1st of May can cast their one vote. Beneficial owners of HURR shares, that is Investors holding HURR shares in a Broker’s “Nominee”; accounts, are disenfranchised from voting at this meeting.

However, and of particular importance to these disenfranchised Investors is the vote at the Extraordinary General Meeting, which follows the Court meeting. At this meeting PRAX and the HURR Board of Directors require 75% of the votes cast at that meeting to be in favour of the Scheme. That is not 75% of HURR shares on the company register; it is 75% of the shares voted at the meeting.

This is where the disenfranchised beneficial owners of HURR shares can influence events, as they can vote all their HURR shares held in Brokers “nominee accounts. Your vote will count and influence the result.

Each individual Broker will have a different method of recording votes cast by the beneficial owners of HURR shares. These usually are by either “secure” message, a telephone call, or a corporate actions “voting” function on the Broker’s website.

For example, Interactive’s clients use a corporate action’s voting function – very easy and efficient. It would be helpful if posters could post the method used by their brokers so that others may benefit and vote.

In order to process these votes Brokers usually close the voting days before the meeting so it is critically essential to CAST VOTES TODAY!
Posted at 23/4/2023 18:33 by senseman
senseman LSE 18.08
DANGER OF USING FORWARD PRIVE CURVE AS OIL PRICE FORECAST Today 18:08
In arguing on 18 April that HUR's P6 standalone figures were valid, CFO stated a Brent forward curve figure of $76 was used. See below a link (& quote therefrom) explaining the limitation of such approach and how it historically has been useless as a forecast. This approach was used disastrously by HUR in 2021 in attempting to restructure via 95% dilution. The approach takes no account of political events and what forecasters at the sharp end eg oil fund managers and those investing, actually think and back with their money. In light of most predictors forecasting 2023 highest ever oil demand fuelled by China reopening and a supply squeeze, basing P6 standalone cashflow on $76 Brent partly explains HUR's fantasy figures, and is wholly wrong.

hxxps://timera-energy.com/the-dangers-of-mixing-forecasts-and-forward-curves/
"Chart 1: Evolution of Brent crude spot and forward prices
Source: Timera Energy (based on ICE Brent Futures settlement prices)
These phenomena clearly undermine the logic that ‘the forward curve is a forecast of spot prices’. Why would a three-year forecast change every day, and by the same amount across the whole forward period, and by the same amount as today’s spot price change? Who changes their long-term forecasts every day? Who thinks that an increase in today’s spot price, perhaps caused by the weather or a well-understood physical event in the supply chain, has any bearing whatsoever on prices three years from now? What kind of implicit fundamental modelling would give rise to such a result?
The Brent price animation illustrates a very simple test: has the FC been a good predictor of Brent spot prices? The answer is that it has clearly been a very poor predictor indeed.
In the articles to follow in this series we will consider a number of econometric theories as to how the FC relates to physical markets. We will see that they often bear very little relationship to reality: and that the dynamics of FCs is a subject best studied empirically."

Another concerning aspect of HUR's figures is the projected 2023 OPEX average $45.5-$54.7 (mid range $50.1 - what CFO said HUR's figures were based on).
End June 2022 OPEX was $33.7 (CFO at 2022 AGM).
April 18 2023 OPEX $38.6 (RNS 18.04.23). That is $4.9 (say $5) increase in 9.5 months.
Since the cost variable is decreasing production, which to date has been linear - it is hard to see how $38.6 OPEX will, by end Dec 2023 (18 April + 8.5 months), increase to average $50 for all 2023. That is, it would need to increase by $11.4 pb by end Dec 2023 just to REACH $50. And increase significantly above $50 by end Dec 2023 to average $50 for 2023.

HUR's figures are undercooked by at LEAST $5 re Brent, and overcooked by at least $5 on OPEX forecast. That is, by at least $10 a barrel. Over 4 remaining offloads this year, +4 more next year - and +1.5p.p.sh magically appears.

This CFO failed to buy bonds at 30/40c in $. And whose July 21-June 22 forecast was +$150mill wrong.
Posted at 23/4/2023 00:05 by senseman
senseman LSE Sat 23.53.
PRESENTATION - MEETING REPORT(S) - FURTHER INFO Sat 23:53
PART 2
11. What confidence can SHs have in HUR's risk assessment & P6 standalone cash production figures when, one year after the 2021 failed High Court 95% restructuring attempt, at bond due date, it's risk assessment proved overstated, and cash projections understated by circa $150 million in a single year?
A: Ignored in P. Asked in M. Answer - only POO (which no one could have predicted) made us $150mill out in 12 months. You can trust us and our figures. We have used POO forward curve figures @ circa $76.
NB: POO forward curve figures historically cautious by $5-$10pb. Take no note of political climate eg: China re-opening & possible supply crucnch.
NB: Answer was drivel lies. In 2021 Judge ruled even on HUR’s own POO figures bond money would only be $10-$25mill short, borrowable from multiple normal sources if needed.
NB: Judge’s estimate after Hearing showed HUR’s accounting for court purposes had written off/not included circa $50mill, ie: HUR tried to bury $50mill (separate from POO issue).
12. Prax - Why do you have confidence in and plan to retain, HUR's CEO & CFO, in light of Q11 above? Also, when HUR's relationship with the NSTA has failed?
A: Ignored (both parts) in P. Asked in M. Prax declined to answer. HUR CEO Maris seized question. Answer – HUR excellent NSTA relationship. Also, (astonishing not RNS’d(my comment)) NSTA some wks/months ago gave permission for crucial P6 production metric to be changed from 300 to 360psi (or other way around - techies please explain). This has enabled & explains why P6 reserves? have been upgraded to extend P6 commercial life & barrelage to 2026 (again techies, please explain the 300/360psi metric & import)
13. In the last 2 ERCE reports, the 2P level of oil in P6 effectively increased by around 3m barrels (ie: it did not materially drop despite oil being extracted for the last year). Please explain the reasons, and by how long this extends P6's projected economically viable lifespan.
A: See 12a above Answer. Ignored in P. Asked in M.
14. Prax - (i) why cannot HUR remain AIM listed until 2026? (ii) how soon will the first added production be brought into HUR?
A: Ignored in P. Asked in M. Prax – ignored (i). Stated ‘we plan to’, no specifics, trust us.
15. Why is Court vote being held 15 mins before Scheme of Arrangement vote?
A: Ignored in P. Asked in M. Stifel answer – both votes held at 4 May General Meeting. HUR need pass 2 hurdles (i) for Court - 50% of SHs who vote– a broker representing say 500 SHs counts as 1 vote. (ii) for Scheme – 75% of votes cast – 1 vote per share held.
16. When P6 pump was previously changed over, natural flow almost matched pumped flow. What is natural flow rate expected to be should pump changeover be necessary again?
A: Ignored in P. Unasked in M.
17. If YES vote is 75%, is the deal binding on ALL SHs?
A: Ignored in P. Unasked in M.
18. Why is HUR confident the NSTA will agree the Scheme?
A: CEO - Because we have excellent NSTA relationship
Posted at 13/4/2023 13:28 by senseman
senseman
LIST OF SHAREHOLDER QUESTIONS - HUR GENERAL MEETING PRESENTATION 18.04.23
To:
comms@hurricaneenergy.com
philip.wolfe@hurricaneenergy.com
rb@crystalamber.com
investor.relations@prax.com

"Dear Mr Chairman

See questions resulting from PI discussion. Please ensure that as many as possible are PROPERLY addressed within the 18 April GM presentation. Thank you.

1. Will DCUs remain under ISA umbrella, if shares currently held there? Such is an issue of fact under UK tax law & should be clarified for PIs. Also, please explain the difference between Class 1 & Class 2 DCUs.
2. Why were not a RANGE of Brent sensitivity figures included in the cash production P6 standalone figures estimates? NB. Brent is today $87
3. Why have the CEO & CFO's 2022 AGM comments that P6 catastrophic failure risk was minimal now been consigned to history, and the risk now been mutated into being major?
4. On 27 March, Hurricane communicated to a SH that up to another $60m would be needed in wind down costs on top of $60m already escrowed, leading to only 0.83p expected dividends per share in 2024. Please explain the reasoning/cost breakdown for the new $120m wind down figure.
5. What is current OPEX April 2023. Also projected 2023 OPEX average?
6. Is there opportunity to develop the Lancaster sandstone reserves of 20m barrels of oil? If not, why?
7. Which party was the principal instigator of the Irrevocable Undertakings? Prax, HUR or CA?
8. Having restated in a recent RNS it has no confidence in the BoD, have CA made clear what action it will take if 25% vote NO? If so, what action?
9. Will the CEO, CFO & Chair resign if 75% YES is not achieved?
10. What are FSP expected total costs?
11. What confidence can SHs have in HUR's risk assessment & P6 standalone cash production figures when, one year after the 2021 failed High Court 95% restructuring attempt, at bond due date, it's risk assessment proved overstated, and cash projections understated by circa $150 million in a single year?
12. Prax - Why do you have confidence in and plan to retain, HUR's CEO & CFO, in light of Q11 above? Also, when HUR's relationship with the NSTA has failed?
13. In the last 2 ERCE reports, the 2P level of oil in P6 effectively increased by around 3m barrels (ie: it did not materially drop despite oil being extracted for the last year). Please explain the reasons, and by how long this extends P6's projected economically viable lifespan.
14. Prax - (i) why cannot HUR remain AIM listed until 2026? (ii) how soon will the first added production be brought into HUR?
15. Why is Court vote being held 15 mins before Scheme of Arrangement vote?
16. When P6 pump was previously changed over, natural flow almost matched pumped flow. What is natural flow rate expected to be should pump changeover be necessary again?
17. If YES vote is 75%, is the deal binding on ALL SHs?
18. Why is HUR confident the NSTA will agree the Scheme?
19. PIs (a 21% block) consider the Scheme horrifically unfair. Why does not Prax immediately improve it's offer to gain greater PI support?

Yours sincerely
etc
Shareholder"
Hurricane Energy share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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