Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[steelwatch] 02/12/2018 17:02

fatnacker - See post #35039 for the answer as to how it will be removed.

[laserdisc] 02/12/2018 13:25

I also have a record that draught was 9.8 on 23/10 with a speed of 8.8 .
With the moonpool cover off probably adds a couple of days extra when they travel to Lerwick. I did notice 2 crane handlers at anchor nearby last week, but did not investigate further, thought it would be better for divers to remove in port its a heavy plate to remove and depth of water lower in port. What ever its happening and my guess would be we should hear by 16/12

[blueclyde] 02/12/2018 13:00

It is just a pure guess on my part. Was just going on the fact that the scope of works to be carried out seem to be less than a week to complete we have been sitting outside port for over a week so I would expect that there was plenty of time to get the job started as soon as the shop docked.We all know that the weather going into Christmas / New Year can be pretty bad going into January so I imagine that they will be pushing hard to get hooked up ASAP.

[fatnacker] 02/12/2018 12:54

I recon the leg to Lerwick will be at reduced speed due to the transit plate removal so I'll stick with last week in December.

[laserdisc] 02/12/2018 12:44

I had 8.2 on weds evg 28/11

6th October notes : Changed the reported Draught from 9.0 m to 7.9 m at:
Time: 2018-10-06 11:48 UTC

[bountyhunter] 02/12/2018 12:35

It was already 8.2m on 29/11 (some history is on this thread).

[bocase] 02/12/2018 12:34

I think it is more likely that there are depth restrictions in port so have pumped out ballast.

[thanksamillion] 02/12/2018 12:28

AM draught currently 8.2m, when usually around 9m. No history of draught available but it seems low, have they already removed the protective cover?

[gary38] 02/12/2018 12:15

I think AM will be in the WoS weather permitting between 12th and 18th and if that is the case,hook up straight away .Its been a long journey getting this far with FOIL soon upon us.DYOR

[oilretire] 02/12/2018 11:42

I'd be very surprised & peed off if the work hadn't started yet!

[the guardian] 02/12/2018 11:26

blueclyde. it's 1001 km or 621 miles from Rotterdam to the Shetlands and as far as we know, the work hasn't even started yet, so Dec 10 seems a bit optimistic. I hope you're right though.

[chopsy] 02/12/2018 09:33

Thanks, Steve, that's really interesting and encouraging!

[bocase] 02/12/2018 09:15

There is no calm weather forecast for W.o.S before the 16th December but A.M. would be unlikely to be on station before then anyway. I will keep checking the detailed forecast for the next window of calm weather. Ironically, today is relatively calm.

[fatnacker] 02/12/2018 07:56

blueclyde I'll have that bet with you, no way will it be on station by the 10th, end of the month all being well.

[francis55] 02/12/2018 07:43

For those who want to know the weather at Lancaster you can log onto the BBC Weather shipping site which gives fairly accurate reports specific for shipping.

[bocase] 02/12/2018 06:58

Looking hopeful for cut at OPEC meeting this week.

[bocase] 02/12/2018 06:53

Good news that oil assets not being sold on the cheap.

[steve73] 02/12/2018 03:21

chopsy, ref your comment on post 774 about our oil "reserves" (used loosely) being just 1% of the total reservoir volume.

You are correct.! I recall seeing some data from a year or so back (possibly the CPR, or perhaps even earlier), that suggested the average porosity of the FB was 4%, and also that the recovery factor being targeted was around 25%.

I've made some simple volumetric models of each of the reservoirs, using total area, depth to OWC, and some basic shape correlations, and these closely match the figures suggested by the various CPRs.

The thing that really interests me is the (relatively) low recovery factors being assumed. For comparison, in a typical Sandstone reservoir with many small pores (often with an overall porosity of 20-30%), much of the residual oil (i.e. the oil that cannot be produced) is "stuck" to the rock surfaces (of which small pores means there is much), and yet recovery of over 50% is common in a well managed field. Other "lost" oil can be from relatively isolated sections of the reservoir that are poorly swept, or bypassed completely.
For FB, there are no "Pores" as such, rather lots of fractures and micro-fractures, giving only a 4% porosity overall, but these fractures are likely to be much larger that the pores in sandstone. As such there is likely to be much less surface area per unit of pore volume for the oil to adhere to. This suggests to me that it should be easier to recover more of the oil, so the assumption of just 25% recovery could be, IMO, being very conservative. The inference of course being that more sections of the reservoir are assumed to be isolated, bypassed, or poorly swept.

I must stress, that although I have only briefly worked with FB (in Vietnam), the bulk of my experience is on the more typical sandstone fields, and so my assumptions COULD be wrong.

However, based on my gross reservoir volume estimates that broadly agree with the CPR, my estimates for OIIP (Oil Initially In Place) are somewhere between 10-20+ Billion barrels, so even a very small increase in the recovery that can be achieved, gives a huge upside to oil volumes that could ultimately be produced. This recovery factor assumption is one of the variables I'm hoping can be revised upwards during the course of the EPS.

[pro_s2009] 02/12/2018 03:20

For those with no FB.

AM arriving in Rotterdam.

[bountyhunter] 01/12/2018 21:31

as long as we don't get a hurricane lol

roll on first oil, this has to be the first time I've seen everything run to schedule in this type of situation!
...bodes well for the future

[laserdisc] 01/12/2018 21:10

I would think that they will have advanced highly accurate site forecast info, via a system similar to

Marine Weather Forecasting
pdf | 1MB

see download flyer at

[blueclyde] 01/12/2018 20:34

If I was a betting man I would say in place for hook up around Monday 10th December