Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[turbounit] 15/4/2009 11:37

Looking at the chart it does have a tendency to go parabolic at times. Let's hope it continues.

[chrismcglone] 15/4/2009 11:26

Woken up at last.

[chester] 15/4/2009 11:08

I'm in for a few this morning.

[cockneyrebel] 14/4/2009 18:26

chart still looking good.

Was thinking of adding but too many exciting things about and the newsflow not schedulded from GDWN for quite some time. Meanwhile I'm running out of cash fast :-(

CR

[bigbigdave] 14/4/2009 16:27

New uptrend forming??

[cambium] 02/4/2009 11:40

I was hoping to top up in isa season

[scottishfield] 02/4/2009 11:39

My goodness, the beast stirs..

[davemac3] 25/3/2009 22:22

wakey wakey GDWN there's a stock market rally going on!!

[davemac3] 20/3/2009 20:24

any info from presentation yesterday?

[eagle eye] 09/3/2009 18:23

The key factor for determining the future direction of the share price will be what the eps growth expectations will be for next year. Until that becomes more clear, then a few sellers and poor market sentiment will continue to undermine the share price. The weakness of th £ should be an addded bonus though.
EE

[cockneyrebel] 09/3/2009 18:03

Yep, 130p might be the level Cambium.

I'm looking at H1 where they did 67.4p and said - "it would be surprising if the same level of activity was not seen in the second half year."

Looks like they've done 31p in Q3 so they would need 37p eps in Q4 for their H1 statement to hold true roughly. Quartrs are never equal and they could do more or less than that in Q4 than Q3.

Lets say things have slowed to profit being flat at the moment, that's 31p in Q4 and 62p in H2 in total and about the 130p for the year as you suggest.

So lets say a PE just under 6 for this year and a 2.5%-3% yield - still pretty cheap on that basis imo.


CR

[chrismcglone] 09/3/2009 16:51

What's the yield down here?

[jimmy tarbuck] 09/3/2009 16:46

Downside looks minimal from here, but I don't expect a rush of buyers here - or indeed anywhere - for now.

Dividend cover is nearly 4 times, so with growth in earnings, I expect a hike in the divi later this year. Certainly looks like a reasonable 'hold' at present.

[cambium] 09/3/2009 15:41

130p might be on the cards for the year.

They have done 98p for three quarters and have said that cancellations stand at 2% so surely 98 x 1.33 = 130p should be where its at, putting us on a current PE of 6 with net cash.

[nurdin] 09/3/2009 15:36

Much better than I was expecting...too much to expect full year eps of 130p?I will hold what I have for now I think...

[1q] 09/3/2009 15:33

98p+ eps for the 9 months. Not bad. Already beats the figure for the full year to April 2008.

The board are always downbeat. And this was never a spivs stock. At least you can rest at night knowing this company's not going bust. Indeed, once the developing world pulls out of this downturn, GDWN's profit should rip ahead.

[cockneyrebel] 09/3/2009 15:13

Cheers Cambium, just seen it.

Doesn't sound as upbeat as the last statement, bit more cautious.

"there is the possibility that the profitability of the Group will be stable to the end of this calendar year at least".

Any idea what they might mean by that? No growth but no decline I read that as, roughly?

I'd have thought most of that was factored in here, if we're going to be averaging 94p or so p.a. eps over the next year or so.

I guess punters don't want to buy anything in this market - it's very tough out there.

I'll keep hold to what I have, not keen to add to anything at the moment tho.

CR

[cambium] 09/3/2009 14:54

As at 31st January 2009, the Group still had a relatively high order backlog equating to some seven months of production and to date, whilst a few customers have extended their contract delivery schedules, contract cancellations are running at less than 2% of annual sales output. This, of course, does not guarantee any future situation and subject to there being no exceptional or material adverse events (of which there are none noted at present), there is the possibility that the profitability of the Group will be stable to the end of this calendar year at least.




We continue to pursue business opportunities with exports from our UK factories world wide as we have successfully done in the past and, with Sterling being so weak, we would expect our ability to develop existing customer business further in the future to improve. We will continue to progress our domestic manufacturing and sale activities in China, India, Thailand and Brazil where we now have eight factories and it is these parts of the globe that we expect to be the first to emerge out of the recession.




With this deep recession almost certainly going to continue through 2010, the corporate goal, as re- affirmed in the half year statement, of "reducing the corporate debt level in the near future to zero" remains in place and this is being done by suspending growth activities for a while and conserving our profits.




J. W. Goodwin

[jonwig] 09/3/2009 14:40

Q3 statement just out.
I haven't researched this company enough to make a sensible judgement (and I don't hold ... yet) but it looks as though they are digging in for a long winter.

[cockneyrebel] 08/3/2009 12:06

Cheers.

CR

[eagle eye] 08/3/2009 12:01

I spoke to to company on Friday.
The 3Q trading statement should be out sometime this week.
Eagle Eye

[cockneyrebel] 08/3/2009 11:37

yep, I thought it might be out on Friday - some time next week looks likely imo.

I'm beginning to wonder if good results get a decent response on any shares these days - seems even if the results are good everyone is expecting the future to weaken on everything. Market completely lacks faith and commitment in anything. Would be good to see the market plummet another 15% and get all the fear out of the way for a bit, at least then the major indicies will be down to a level where there is stronger previous support and some of the volatility might get ironed out.

If you'd caught something like WEIR back on the low in Nov and held till now you are up about 25%. Truth is most never caught the bottom and are probably up 15% at best but in those 3-4 months it has lurched up and down 20-25% several times. When you go back to 2005 when it was last at this level the most it moved up and down over 3-4 months was around 5%.

These markets are not going to see enough investors return until that volatility comes out of the market imo. Meanwhile we'll have to suffer it. GDWN doesn't help itself in that it is illiquid and a big spread - tales some stomach to buy a share where you are immediately down 7% in the best of times but when the markets are volatile or the share is falling it's even worse and makes punters hold off - reckon a share split would have eased a bit of that psychologically myself.

CR

[cambium] 07/3/2009 21:49

No probably early next week

[lucky_lady] 06/3/2009 16:49

I thought a statement was due today