Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 27/12/2024 11:47

bamboo

Thanks.
I cannot disagree with your analysis.
It is down to timing now.

red

[bamboo2] 26/12/2024 13:40

Breakaway gap based support zone 6820-7000. Breakaway's can remain unfilled for long periods, sometimes never filling. They can indicate a change in trend, and represent a link between fundamentals and technical analysis. This one suggests the market endorses the news based event that caused it.

Price rising above rising Sma's

Initial target historical resistance approx 8700.
Eod close above 8860 confirms a tp approx 10000





Experimenting with img hosts.

[gdjs100] 24/12/2024 11:41

There are no additional reporting responsibilities being in the FTSE 250 vs the Small Cap.

[redartbmud] 24/12/2024 11:21

Part of 250 Index now.
They have appointed joint broker.

Different set of reporting responsibilites & scrutiny.

red

[shanklin] 24/12/2024 11:00

To be fair to GDWN:
- they have started issuing TSs, albeit not overly informative ones
- the H1 results contained more useful information than I have previously seen in a GDWN RNS

[redartbmud] 24/12/2024 07:48

Garbet

As an investor in Goodwin, you have to understand the family and the way they manage.
They own 52 - 54% of the company combined so have control.
Their strategy is long-term and high quality. When its' right, its' right.
They will tell you when its' right at the right time.

red

[garbetklb] 24/12/2024 00:21

I completely recognise all that. It's just the communication that's been a bit irking.

[redartbmud] 22/12/2024 10:26

Garbet

They aren't going to relaease a product to market until they are entirely satisfied with it.
Furthermore, they have built a new plant from scratch to manufacture the product. Undubtedly that has had several major tweaks along the way.
That also has to be tested to ensure that once in production they can meet capacity and the product conforms to the specification.
I expect a ramp up of production to grow as they gain new customers.
Those customers will take time to transition to the Goodwin product. They also have to be satisfied that it meets their criteria and that demand can be met.

Overall not a five minute job.

red

[garbetklb] 22/12/2024 10:16

Duvelco - I was a bit less impressed!

12/23 HY results - "ontrack ....commissioned & operational June 24"
03/24 TU - not mentioned (!)
08/24 Finals - "in final stages of commissioning.... full production near future"
09/24 TU - "commission underway & progressing.... couple of months behind schedule set 4Y ago"
12/24 HY results "successful production at industrial scale" (nb is this full scale?) But only 1 of the 2 lines - graphite due by end Jan. Data sheets 2Q2025.

So sounds unlikely there will be much sold in H12025 as data sheets not yet available.

I'm not overly surprised, nor overly critical of timescale - but I don't think communication has been especially impressive.

[cockerhoop] 21/12/2024 10:23

Changing the subject but I was also really surprised how publically upbeat they were regards Duvelco in the recent interims.

[cockerhoop] 21/12/2024 10:21

Certainly lots of investment at both GDWN and Sheffield Forgemasters.

Mod owned Forgemasters are investing in 2 new forges to come online in 2025 & 2027 and are currently doing groundwork on an extensive new machine shop. They are targeting UK/AUKUS and Civil Nuclear work.

At GDWN we've had the upgrade in capacity at GSC, a new machine shop at GI, increased US funded radiographic capacity (for high integrity castings) and initial community consultations regarding further machine shop expansion.

[tudes100] 21/12/2024 00:27

I haven't copied the whole article for obvious reasons but most relevant part below ;
The shipbuilding program’s problems are endemic to the U.S. industrial base. As manufacturing moved offshore and capital and labor migrated to more lucrative fields, the associated managerial know-how and skilled labor have atrophied.
That now looks like a threat to U.S. economic and military security as China’s industrial prowess and strategic threat have grown.
In the past three years, China has built 47% of all the world’s ships, and the U.S. just 0.1%, according to United Nations data. China’s shipyards build both commercial and military vessels, a significant strategic advantage. From 2014 to 2023, China’s navy launched 157 ships while the U.S. launched 67, according to independent defense analyst Tom Shugart.
The U.S. is now trying to build capacity in sectors from semiconductors to renewable energy, in part by sending a “demand signal” to investors and workers. Subsidies to semiconductor plants, for example, signal to students there are careers in making chips.
The demand signal for warships faded after the Cold War ended. Submarine production slumped from 3.8 a year in the 1980s to 0.7 in the 1990s, according to Eric Labs, a navy analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. It flickered to life again in the 2000s amid China’s growing threat and the need to replace aging ships. Warship tonnage under construction went from 68,000 in 2014 to 123,000 this year, Labs estimates.
Under the Navy’s latest plan, that would reach 167,000 in 2034. But shipyards will struggle to meet that goal. Since 2019, the Navy has planned on three subs (two attack, one ballistic) a year, but actual production has been just half that, Labs estimates.
The number of suppliers has shrunk dramatically, creating additional chokepoints. One source of delays on subs were problems at a sole supplier of large castings such as of rudders. HII has since added two suppliers in the U.K.

[cockerhoop] 20/12/2024 19:01

I'm not able to access the article but the US has had serious problems since Covid in shipbuilding supply chains.

My understanding is GDWN & Sheffield Forgemasters are 2 of the 4 qualified suppliers of castings to the US Navy the other 2 being US based.

The narrative from GDWN is they are being increasingly embedded in long term contracts on extended US programs.

A good leading indicator was the recent US grant to add 4 radiographic chambers to add 200% to GDWN's radiographic capacity from late 2025.

[simon gordon] 20/12/2024 18:09

GDWN?

WSJ - 19/12/24:

The Hidden Threat to National Security Is Not Enough Workers

Building a nuclear submarine is demanding, rewarding work—but it doesn’t pay very well

...The number of suppliers has shrunk dramatically, creating additional chokepoints. One source of delays on subs were problems at a sole supplier of large castings such as of rudders. HII has since added two suppliers in the U.K.

[bamboo2] 18/12/2024 09:13

Potentially a nice chart set up with a news based breakaway gap up suggesting support zone [6820-7000] and price rising above rising Sma's. These breakaway's are the type that can remain unfilled for long periods, and often show a strong relationship between fundamentals and technicals. It will be interesting to see what happens with this one...

[maverick247] 17/12/2024 14:24

Fantasy stock challenge bit of fun!https://smallcappix.com/stockchallenge

[kneecaps2] 17/12/2024 11:12

Trombone you were also out of tune when Goodwin last reported results on 7/8/24 when you said sell down to £50. I hope you followed your own advice!

[kneecaps2] 17/12/2024 10:31

Thanks 74tom for pointing out the excellent Sweet research and history of Goodwin!

[trombone_89] 17/12/2024 09:35

those revenue forecasts are well off the pace. They did 9% revenue growth in the first half no way they are doing 15% for the full year they literally told you that the second half will be like the first, so the eps forecast is accurate by chance, but the rest of the forecast slate is not realistic. refractory revenue was down not up in that forecast.

your definition of to a tee seems to be very wonky

if they do 0.4x then this will be very cheap let us be realistic. They won't do that eps for next year even on that forecast slate you sent across

[74tom] 17/12/2024 09:33

As per this very detailed piece of work FY26 EPS growth is forecast to be ~60%

It was released last June & appears to have forecast FY25 to a tee.

If it proves accurate then the current PEG is 0.43x, is that up with events Trombone?

[cfro] 17/12/2024 09:14

I wouldn't bother using the PEG ratio as a valuation metric, not for this company or any company, it's a meaningless tool..

A company of this calibre and quality is highly unlikely to be priced on a multiple of less than 20.

Most of us here are very long term investors. I am not worried about 2025 results more like 2035..

[yasrub] 17/12/2024 08:49

In fairness Trombone_89 within an hour you've gone from very expensive to up with events.

[74tom] 17/12/2024 08:25

On what planet is a PER of 22x expensive for a company which grew H1 EPS at 31% YoY? Absolute and utter nonsense. Spirax are on a PER of 25x and have negative EPS growth...

What's more, the H1 PBT margin of 15.7% is comfortably the highest in recent history.

This excellent write up from a few months ago looks to be on track;

The author reckons this mornings update put them on track towards the £49m PBT forecast for FY26. If that comes off then a PER of 22x would put the share price at £106.5