Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[skinwalker] 12/5/2021 20:16

Long term hold ? You mean you bought when the share price was higher, and you're sitting on a loss ? How long before you can get your dosh back ?

[arregius] 17/12/2020 12:49

This is a very longterm hold for me. Business is like that. Owner operator

[redartbmud] 16/12/2020 11:14

If Goodwin is a share that you buy and hold forever then the odd blip is always going to occur. I am going back to sleep until they issue the next Rns and then the xd date.

[rp19] 16/12/2020 10:54

Thanks cfro, fair points and I don't disagree. I think for me, the question in the short/medium term is can the current share price multiple be supported whilst the lengthy (by nature of the industry) diversification process is underway. Perhaps it will as the market looks forward but, if not, others may see any fall as a buying opportunity.

[luderitz] 16/12/2020 10:42

My interest is that after research about a year ago I put Goodwin on my watch list, they are still there because as holders on here have said they will probably come back strong when the conditions have settled. Good fortune all.

[shanklin] 16/12/2020 10:01

cfro, You make some excellent points. Must admit I was amazed, given the very negative tone of the RNS, the share price did not immediately drop well below £25.

[cfro] 16/12/2020 09:34

RP19, I think you would agree that if they achieved similar eps for H2 and thus 115p for the year, that this is a "one-off" year and given the year we've all had would be a rather good result overall. As i said in my previous post, i really dont know what on earth investors were expecting here today. With profits down by only -22% and revenues even less at -11% and cashflow and future order book inline, it could have been a lot worse! This is a high quality, well run and conservatively managed business. The management are fully aware that the Oil & Gas industry is in decline and are moving away from that into very important growth areas such as renewables. Also sectors like defense (the governments proposed spending of some £16bn) and even Nuclear will provide the company with many new opportunities going forward. I dont know where eps and profits will be in two or three years time but you can bet they will be a lot higher than now.

[luderitz] 16/12/2020 08:43

Morning all, Goodwin PLC - Half Year report not received well, share price down 10/11% in early dealing.

[rp19] 16/12/2020 08:36

Hi cfro - If they achieve similar EPS in H2 that would be about 115p for the year. Putting it on a P/E of around 26 at current price of £30. This appears reasonably lofty given the outlook tone although I note they are confident in their order book. Do you have any future year EPS targets?

[arregius] 16/12/2020 08:36

I was expecting a better outlook but things have slowed down. I am here longterm but shorterm hurts

[cfro] 16/12/2020 08:18

I am not sure as to what exactly investors were expecting here but these results were well flagged - we knew there would be a reduction in revenues and profits... Taking everything into consideration these results, i thought, were very good overall.

[skinwalker] 20/10/2020 09:22

No idea why, but this share is having a very good run. (anyone know?) I might even go into profit.

[deadly] 16/10/2020 11:39

up 7% today?! something brewing?

[yasrub] 10/10/2020 06:30

Reinvesting Friday divi?

[westofengland] 09/10/2020 19:48

Interesting to see lots of buyers this week; any ideas on the background to this?

[rhomboid] 27/8/2020 20:18

My guess is as Castaldo Only cost £2m it will be unlikely to add more than £400-500k to the bottom line but that’s a total guess As significant potentially is the new processing plant as although cheaper to buy (770k)it looks a v well priced acquisition & provides instant capacity uplift for Hoben It’ll be fascinating to see this all unfold

[vprt] 27/8/2020 18:39

Interesting. I wonder how profitable Castaldo is, and is expected to become, with synergies? As it adds to the Refractory side and already is in management's plans and expectations at the time of writing the AR (and the 65:35 split), if Castaldo adds significantly to Refractory profits, my estimates might be too conservative.

[rhomboid] 27/8/2020 18:13

I’d just done the same exercise on DM with someone on Twitter...& came up with exactly that range of outcomes...

[vprt] 27/8/2020 17:57

Thanks! One correction: Having consulted Note 4 on page 58 which the above comments and percentages refer to, I see that there are "Group centre" costs of ca £2m not included. So I guess the rough total operating profit estimate would be £21-24m, net of those.

[rhomboid] 27/8/2020 17:43

Hi I’m expecting larger profits all round...but there are too many moving parts to nail down a specific number Having said that your logic looks fine to me ...especially with fY contributions from Castaldo & the newly acquired minerals site

[vprt] 27/8/2020 15:48

Just topped up further after skimming the AR - just released, during market hours! From page 8, "Business Diversity and Performance". Two observations + one conclusion: 1. Refractory performance was similar to previous year due to covid, rather than outperforming - i.e. expect say £8m or £9m (or more?) in a "normal" year 2. Future percentage split - and I believe they are talking operating profit here - is expected to be 65:35 in favour of Mech Eng. My conclusion is that "normal" / future operating profit is seen as £23-26m (or even more if you expect more from Refractory) Any comments? Have I missed something? [Edit: Other than the £2m central costs - see next post] Rhomboid or others, what level of profits do you expect in the future?

[rhomboid] 17/8/2020 16:49

Hi bottomfisher I’ve held Goodwin for years..off & on but am now at the largest % weight in my portfolio ever because I’m convinced that the business is on a major upswing...not least because of the input of the younger generation of Goodwins...I’ve no doubt at all that the margins will bounce back & then some over the next 6 mths...CV19 & 2 casting contract disputes have suppressed but only temporarily imho..here’s a summary I wrote elsewhere post results in case it is of any interest; - The key aspect of these results is alluded to within the text of the Chairman’s remarks on numerous occasions. It is that the company has gone through a transformational period during which it has significantly increased and broadened its capabilities in order to reduce its historic dependence on the oil and gas and petrochemical industries - It has taken some five or six years to reach an inflection point where the new business sectors are contributing orders on an unprecedented scale that more than offset the challenging conditions in oil and gas and petrochemicals. The key technological change underlying this broadening of capabilities is the ability to cast components vastly larger than they they have historically been able to undertake, this means they cast weights of up to 35 tons compared to say Castings plc (who coincidentally also reported today..but in considerably more downbeat fashion ) who typically cast weights of between 10 and 40 kg. - The advantage of larger components is simply that they are technically more challenging and require very high-level metallurgical expertise possessed by very few competitors worldwide. As a result margins are typically higher and the level of design input by Goodwin is far greater and the limited range of competition is perhaps only four or five companies globally. - The key advantage that Goodwin have is that they are fully integrated, by which I mean they start from the design collaboration, then the production of the complex casting, in some cases using patented Goodwin alloys that have very specific in use characteristics, then x-ray in their own recently installed underground x-ray chamber, then validate using Lloyds register or similar who are represented on site, then they machine the castings of up to 35 tons at their sister company ..Goodwin engineering ..to the ultimate finished component that is then utilised in typically mission-critical environments. - For Goodwin the growth in order book is taking place in nuclear&defence, major multi year programmes ..that is vastly improving the quality of their earnings and the visibility thereof, only a fraction of this 2% is in current workload figure quoted - Finally I would add that refractory products are virtually half the business and do not feature in the order bank at all, this part of the business has benefited considerably in recent years after the global number one competitor went out of business 2 yrs ago, they have global leadership as a result & again are fully integrated including a patented new silica free offering - I’d suggest 14% turnover growth..& a record order book in the year of a pandemic are pretty good signs that future performance will reflect the scale of the physical changes that the have taken place throughout the business In short Goodwin (LON:GDWN) has been transformed..but the transformation has been all but obscured to an extent by the decline in O&G ..but that’s s definitely coming to an end I like it a lot ..a truly remarkable business

[bottomfisher] 16/8/2020 09:37

Don't like to hear about Goodwin being in dispute with with its customers over two contracts. It raises a small question mark over whether Goodwin's young new top management team is being tempted to chase growth in revenues at the expense of margins and profits.

[cockerhoop] 16/8/2020 00:11

The vast majority of the reduction in profitability was within the ME division which I'd put down to the 2 contracts within Castings in dispute (possible profit to be booked this year) and the margin squeeze in the O&G sector.

[skanjete2] 15/8/2020 09:51

Revenue was up and considerably so. Profitability and margins however were down considerably, and I fail to find a good explanation on this in the report. Does anyone have a clear view on this? It seems to have something to do with the changing mix of business, but in how far is this something permanent or not?