Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 22/8/2009 16:09

Well I'll continue to hold.

These are a great backbone to a mixed holding imo. You get 5% divi next month too.

Power stations are a huge growth market for Goodwin. Their high temperature cast components mean that power stations can burn at a much higher temperature, reducing the carbon output. These stations will have to go this way all around the world.

When GDWN do put out any good news (and they report quarterly) then like yesterday - it will take just a couple of thousand shares to move this up £1.

2003 = 25.5p, 2004 = 27p (+6%), 2005 = 35p (+30%), 2006 = 47p (+35%), 2007 = 65p (+38%), 2008 = 91.4p (+40%) 2009 = 122p (+33%)

That's the eps record - there will be plenty wanting to buy that even if growth is flat this year imo. It's unmatched. There will be some that want to sell I guess - they pay the spread when they buy back, they lose the divi, they will in all liklihood buy back in on good news and miss the best price because these will leap on good news. That's fair enough but personally I'll keep hold what I have - I think the way these have outperformed the likes of Wellstream and Weir Group (who are also forecast not to grow their earnings this year) yet are trading on a much lower PE says to me they are undervalued, imo - and WSM and WEIR can't hold a candle to GDWN's growth and performance and debt-free status.

CR

[1q] 22/8/2009 09:22

In the words of the Bard, show me a better bet and I'll show you my a...

Posted at 1.30 am - have you had a drink ?

I would hardly say Goodwin are ex-growth - far from it. Just going through a period of prudent consolidation, with a fair reward for their patient shareholders to boot.

For anyone looking for a long-term, solid company where you can sleep at night with your investment, then there's no better bet than GDWN.

[stegrego] 22/8/2009 00:30

Sold at 1275 - p/e 10 at that price and this statement doesnt exactly thrill me:

'but it is unlikely due to the global trading environment that there will be any growth in pre-tax profit for the year ending 30th April 2010.'

p/e 10 isnt cheap for something thats gone ex growth, even if only for a year. Better bets elsewhere IMO.

Good Luck.

[jo0ls] 21/8/2009 17:52

With my impressive 6 months of experience, I thought it might drop after the results. I've been waiting to buy for a couple of weeks. I'll collect some on Monday, place in an ISA and leave to ferment for a year or two.

[cockneyrebel] 21/8/2009 16:42

Yep, a few profit takers and I guess being near the close the mm's decided it might be prudent to put people off.

55p divi

Earnings Growth Record

2003 = 25.5p, 2004 = 27p (+6%), 2005 = 35p (+30%), 2006 = 47p (+35%), 2007 = 65p (+38%), 2008 = 91.4p (+40%) 2009 = 122p (+33%)

Take a look at that track record, it counts for a lot. You won't find one as good as that anywhere else imo.

A reliable place to have your money imo, even if earnings don't grow this year. But with the order book at £57m I think they might still surprise as they often do.

PE of 9 after you net off the divi - compare that to Wellstream imo.

Chart still in an uptrend if you care to take a look, £3 spikes and £2 drift backs.

CR

[shanklin] 21/8/2009 15:54

Yep, seems a bit of an over-reaction. Having sold 500 at 1297 per my earlier post, I bought them back for 1185 just before the close :-)

55p dividend to come shortly and a company where management seem 100% reliable.

[jo0ls] 21/8/2009 15:48

Looks like a buying opportunity on Monday then.

[cellars] 21/8/2009 11:01

WCB FWIW i came up with 111p eps for fy2010. Anyone else any thoughts?

[cockneyrebel] 21/8/2009 10:30

Agree Westcountryboy.

Extraordinary divi and debt gone. Remember they achieved this in Q4 with the £ much stronger against the $ when 60% of earnings come from $ denominated countries - that's rather excellent imo

Take a look at Wellstream results this week they hav blown Wellstream to pieces :-)

Good of them to put the results out at 9.30am this time when I had just got aclimatised to 3.30pm :-) Caught me in the bath!


Jewellery - have a read of ACR recently, seems jewellery is on the pick up here too.


With debt killed perhaps a larger divi will become the norm.

CR

[shanklin] 21/8/2009 10:16

Given how much they have talked in recent RNSes about the importance and merits of going cash positive in the current economic environment, IMHO it seems very +ve for them suddenly to add an extra 27.77p to the dividend payable.

I managed to sell 500 at £12.96, which I'll buy back if the share price drops back for any reason. Knowing my luck we'll probably see a bid tomorrow at £20 /share :-)

Cheers, Martin

[dasv] 21/8/2009 09:43

good post WCB- thanks.

[westcountryboy] 21/8/2009 09:02

Much as expected but eps for the year 'only' 121.93p. Eps in final quarter only 24.6p as against 24.86p in Q4 08. Shouldn't read too much into quarterly eps figures as so much depends on when tax is paid. Revenue for Q4 up but operating margin down at 11.7%, actually the lowest quarterly margin of the eight reported since quarterly reporting began. That may be more significant than eps freeze.

Fairly clear warnings that little growth can be expected next year, and the jewellery castings business is obviously suffering. However SRS will contribute in the longer term, and Noreva contributed £3.1m, a dream acquisition since it only cost £3.4m.

Capex back to normal at £2.22m for H2 (after acquisition of SRS in H1) but still ahead of depreciation at £1.24m for H2.

The big news is a) the abolition of debt, always something I like to see, and b) the special dividend, making 55p in all for holders this year.

All in all a very creditable performance from a company that is clearly operating to long-term plans and is prudent about managing cash and growth. Remains a very firm hold. I would guess 110-120p eps next year, but difficult to say really, and no estimates to guide us!

cheers
WCB

[rbf] 21/8/2009 08:50

Results look good at first glance, but perhaps a little caution advised....


"but it is unlikely due to the global trading environment that there will be any growth in pre-tax profit for the year ending 30th April 2010."

[cambium] 21/8/2009 08:44

Basic and diluted earnings per ordinary share 121.93p

[cambium] 21/8/2009 08:40

cash before profit

[1q] 21/8/2009 08:35

Double your dividend. Bit early in the day for Goodwin to announce ? Looks good at first glance.

[cambium] 21/8/2009 08:33

great set of results, well done

[blueforce] 18/8/2009 20:21

Broker forecasts ... that'll be the day. But since the recent FT interview, anything's possible.

[westcountryboy] 17/8/2009 19:22

Hi blueforce

Actually there has been a complete transformation in the way the company communicates over the last two years. Full comments accompanying results, more detail on quarterly statements than most provide, and a sensitivity to investors' interests in RNS statements. For us oldies it has been a revelation. Who knows, they might even encourage broker forecasts soon :-)

[cockneyrebel] 17/8/2009 19:05

Agree, got to live with the volatility through illiquidity.

Could have bought these @ 75p at the last market bottom and 18 bagged them in 5 years.

Reckon this will be a similar opportunity here.

CR

[blueforce] 17/8/2009 18:57

Great company this. I've held for a long time. But exciting it aint. One problem is that there are only just over 7m shares in issue and the family own 57% of them, leaving only c 3m in free float. This makes it extremely sensitive to Edwards Law. Also the family run the business and don't give a dam or spend a cent promoting the company. They let the results do the talking. I bet this same GDWN culture means they leave us hanging on, yet again, until the death on Friday for the results. But who cares it's done well for me.

[1q] 17/8/2009 16:50

Nice tick up today ahead of the results this Friday. Should be interesting to see how they have weathered the recent economic storm. Personally, I'm quite optimistic. We'll know soon enough.