Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[bigalan3] 29/8/2008 10:10

Just bought 192 shares and the deal is not visible anywhere.
Comments please!

[cockneyrebel] 27/8/2008 14:46

this might be your buy dip chrismcglone - 35% down on the recent leg up - that seems to be the usual ratio here.

The divi is all at the year end too so the full 23p is available to those buying at the momnt. Net buy price 1177p - looks screaming cheap when you look at the growth record imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 26/8/2008 18:32

yep - in fact I reckon if you take the SETs stocks off your watchlist (ie FTSE350) and most of the small caps that are traded on SETs and actually don't look at the indicies then the Small Cap and AIM stocks traded on SEAQ by MM's actually are much calmer.

GDWN, SGI, ISG, GFRD and a number of others all look like they have nailed in a bottom and put in a very significant bounce. I'm sure there are going to be companies report far better numbers than expected over the next month (a load of companies report in Sep) where stocks have been sold off indescriminently.

CR

[chrismcglone] 26/8/2008 16:58

Don't disagree CR. Some of the builders are priced to go bust yet they still have decent prospects going forward. Profits down by 50% therefore SP's down by 90% doesn't really make good sense does it.

I have been sitting on the kids cash for a couple of years now looking for a good entry point. I am looking at a 10-15 year investment timescale so there are already some fantastic buys around.

My gut instinct however tells me that the market will have at least one last tank before the extreme volatility can be put to rest.

I expect to see it under 5000 if only for a brief period but i won't be surprised if we are straight back up to 7000 and beyond within a couple of years.

Goodwin is exactly the type of company i am looking at so i am kicking myself a bit for not jumping at that £8 recent share price

[cockneyrebel] 26/8/2008 14:49

I think a lot of stocks have bottomed - on a descriminate basis.

Look at the builders, constantly rallying on bad news.

Lots of small caps have made a bottom too imo.

Banks and Property Co's still got a long haul but ife doesn't end even if we do slip into a recession - a lot of co's make good money in a recession.

CR

[chrismcglone] 26/8/2008 14:32

Damn, looks like i missed yet another chance to buy in. Oh well, such is life.

Still confident this market has at least one last big blow out before the toxic waste of the past decade is flushed from the system. Should get my chance then.

Nothing to do but sit and wait then (again).

[cockneyrebel] 26/8/2008 11:46

:-)

These are ISA-able too - which is nice.

CR

[dasv] 26/8/2008 11:45

I did say 1200p would be a formality :)

[cockneyrebel] 26/8/2008 11:24

Yep, I got a call back on Friday at 5pm, very nice lady spoke to me, very apologetic. This is genuinely a very good, well run and decent company. I've seen them release results at 3pm for years - the market is always suspicious when that happens but every time they have been excellent results. Friday was no exception - craking numbers.

Match this anywhere?

Earnings Growth Record 2003 = 25.5p, 2004 = 27p (+6%), 2005 = 35p (+30%), 2006 = 47p (+35%), 2007 = 65p (+38%), 2008 - 91.4p (+40%).

That's astonishing imo. I reckon the only question here is will GDWN ever sell out to the likes of Weir Group? I can't imagine them selling out - 150 years of history and still a very strong family shareholding. Stay independent and grow even faster imo.

Great cashflow too - can't beat that in this market.
CR

[cambium] 26/8/2008 10:35

I too have spoke with John Goodwin and he comes across as a very honest and decent chap with integrity.

He has returned my calls within the agreed time and helped and assisted me with any info that I have wanted within the usual parameters.

Great Co.

[wilmdav] 26/8/2008 10:32

CR

Agreed on all counts.

They released the results after hours last year as well.

I also purchased a few more at 1130p this morning.

[cockneyrebel] 26/8/2008 10:21

Yes Wilmdav, that's true. The PE migh thave been more like 4 then but if you consider they will already have made the earnings before having to make that payment - it could be looked on as a PE of 3 and reducing the earings made from Noreava by £300K per annum over the next 5 years to allow for the charge. Either way it has been a stonking buy because not only is it cheap it creates cross selling leads for Goddwin's other valve products.

The 40% growth this year means they have once again not only grown but increased the growth rate. I would doubt that can continue here out but I still think 30% growth would be pretty tasty - the PE would be just about 10. That would be 6 years conmstant earnings growth at a very strong clip, decent balance sheet and a 150 year old co that knows what it's doing very well indeed.

Ipicked up another 500 today. I spoke to the company late Friday, they had no intention of releasing the results after the close but had a couple of problems in the afternoon that delayed them getting them out - they did apologies too. This really is a very nice company imo - not just the way they perform but as a company in general, family owned, no nonsense - does exactly what it says on the tin and better than any other company I can find in the sector.

CR

[wilmdav] 23/8/2008 14:11

Have a look at the Noreava acquisition. In it's first full year with the group it made them £1.4m pre-tax. That acquisition cost them £2.8m! They will have recouped the cost within 24 months.

Bought on a PE of 3. (CR)



The initial consideration is £2.8 million in cash, together with £0.6 million payable to Noreva (i.e. funds retained within the Goodwin group) for a perpetual technology licence. A deferred consideration of an additional £1.0 million will be paid in two instalments, payable after three and five years after completion, respectively. The consideration in case of the exercise of the put and/or call option will be either £1.0 million for the remaining 25 % of the Novera shares or is to be calculated based on 10 times annual average pre-tax profit of Noreva for three years prior to the exercise of the option, or a combination of both calculation methods, depending on, inter alia, the term of service of the respective Managing Director.

AIUI the cost will be £3.8m. Maybe £0.15m should be added, i.e. 25% of the £0.6m payable to Noreva but not clear. The consideration in case of excercise of the put or call option can be ignored because sales and earnings of the remaining 25% of Noreva would be added to GDWN's results.

Debt was £3m at year end but has increased to £9.0m following acquisition of SRS in June - not a problem.

[cambium] 23/8/2008 13:22

clever acquizition in Brazil, they are more interested in the presence and property for cross selling the valves and the castings business is for free, fantastic foresight.

[nurdin] 22/8/2008 18:34

Just look at the cashflow...forget the rest :o)

Net cash from operating activities 11,202k (08) 3,429k(07)

Excellent results by all counts!

[cockneyrebel] 22/8/2008 18:20

Done - impressive ah? :-)

CR

[1q] 22/8/2008 18:08

CR, don't forget to add the magical +40% for 2008 in your 'Earnings Growth Record' at the top of the thread.

[cockneyrebel] 22/8/2008 17:22

Have a look at the Noreava acquisition. In it's first full year with the group it made them £1.4m pre-tax. That acquisition cost them £2.8m! They will have recouped the cost within 24 months.

Bought on a PE of 3.

CR

[cambium] 22/8/2008 17:19

well done Goodwin, great numbers

[cockneyrebel] 22/8/2008 17:11

res 1606 - I think that's carping to say eps q on q is down - the last q was 24.86p, almost matching their best ever quarter last year.

OK they are slightly short of my 95p but the price is already down 20% from the high and it's still a fantastic performance. Earnings can fall differently from quarter to quarter, what matters is year on year and half on half. 95p wasn't a broker forecast either, it was an estimate based on thecurrent growth rate.

39.7p eps in H1, 51.7p in H2.

40% earnings growth year on year, fwd PE single digit in all liklihood.

Chuffing excellent numbers imo which I'm sure they will build on.

I'll change the numbers in the header - it will look might impressive imo.

CR

[dasv] 22/8/2008 16:56

results are music to my ears. great going - brazil expansion - well placed for future growth.

[1q] 22/8/2008 16:54

Interesting to note that GDWN now have footholds in three of the so-called BRIC nations. Great foresight from the Goodwin management as these are the fasting growing energy consumers.

The odd man out is Russia, however I'm glad we're not involved there..

[bigalan3] 22/8/2008 16:48

P/E going forward about 12. Cheap for a stock growing their earnings per share at about 40% per annum.
No problems on the horizon.

[1q] 22/8/2008 16:40

Results look good to me at first glance. EPS of 91p isn't bad and a fair increase on last year. Nice juicy dividend too. Don't think I'll be selling. It would be nice to hear others' thoughts, especially CR.