Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[chrismcglone] 22/1/2009 21:39

Would it not be great if it fell back to £8.

I used to fear falls in the stocks i owned but am now older (a lot) and wiser (a lot less) to see them for what they are.

Wee gifts from Mr Market.

[cockneyrebel] 16/1/2009 19:34

yep, they all bought their full ISA allowance 3 weeks ago tho.

A big Christmas I guess :-)

CR

[v11slr] 16/1/2009 16:30

The directors have sold a tiny amount of their holding, could explain the last few days weakness.

[cockneyrebel] 14/1/2009 14:12

A lot of buying here yesterday, considering it was a grim day too.

stevelondon3 -

The co did 67.38p in H1. They also said

"Despite the overall global economic environment, the order books for our
products of all Group companies remain buoyant and it would be surprising if the
same level of activity was not seen in the second half year."

On that basis, assuming no difference in currecy and margins (and they don't seem to be under any margin pressure) they should do around 135p eps this year imo.

That's not an earnings forecast but it might be a guide.

CR

[joe say] 14/1/2009 12:49

And could I ask if there are any chartists out there who can offer an opinion on this one ?

[stevenlondon3] 14/1/2009 10:27

Could someone please help me with any respectable earning forecasts.
Like the company but limited information available.
Cheers
steve

[cambium] 12/1/2009 08:33

cheers guys!

[dasv] 11/1/2009 21:25

liarspoker - with you on that - different businesses - different models. Happy to hold both though.

[cockneyrebel] 11/1/2009 12:22

Canbium - I did wonder whether SCSW might tip these now. They mentioned them that one brief time, just a line, but I think the shareprice got away from them. With this pull back and valuation and the fact the co has said H2 will beat the fantastic H1 they have had then you have to wonder if they will go with it at this level.

CR

[liarspoker] 11/1/2009 11:12

dasv - I don't think that you can compare GDWN and AU. on a like for like P/E basis. The reason GDWN is on a cheaper rating is that fixed costs are way higher and internal returns are lower. That's not knocking GDWN, it's just that the two companies have different business models. The thing to do would be to compare the companies on a like for like basis something which I can't do as I don't have in depth knowledge of both companies.

[eagle eye] 11/1/2009 10:00

Sorry tell you Cambium but its not for another week....17th Jan :0(
Cheers
EE

[dasv] 08/1/2009 11:14

"Is there any other stock growing earnings at 60% still? "

PE of AU. suggests continuing profit growth on a similar scale. However GDWN is priced on a much lowlier multiple. I.e. It future growth priced in with AU. but not with GDWN. Therefore a great buying opp here. I would only buy AU. on dips from current share price (1000p+).

I also think the better gold miners will get good profit growth in 2009. Oil prices having fallen back but gold price holding up well. Only consider cashed up efficient mid-large existing producers with low costs though. Goldcorp, Kinross, Randgold etc... (RRS falling as I speak - profit taking - price got ahead of itself IMHO).

[cockneyrebel] 08/1/2009 10:47

A few buys today

These did 43p eps in Q2 - I reckon it's quite possible they do that in both quarters in H2. These are going to do around 150p+ eps for the year, nearly £1 of that in H2.

Is there any other stock growing earnings at 60% still?

These are chuffing amazing imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 05/1/2009 10:59

24K buys and sells there - huge by GDWN standards.

A seller done I reckon, or nearly done and the chart ripe for a move up.

CR

[bigalan3] 24/12/2008 07:31

The family now owns 60% of the shares. Any future bid would have to come at a very high price. Future looks great - forward p/e about 8 and peg 0.2

[cockneyrebel] 23/12/2008 16:42

Likes like all the Goodwin family are buying each other shares this Christmas

Might not look a lot in numbers but remember they ar e£11 a pop.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 22/12/2008 17:00

Blimey, most profit taking I've seen in a day yet the price holding up rather well when you look at it - reckon I'll have to be in for some more after missing a good top up chance in recent weeks.

Who would sell days after the co said H2 is in all liklihood to be better than H1? Just those not used to banking a profit recently I guess.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 20/12/2008 04:26

the boards argument against a split is that new investors looking at a chart wouldn't get a true picture. I think most charts adjust these days but it illustrates their pride in the business imo - if you had bought these at the start of the credit crunch you have ridden it out, albeit with some big leaps and falls which are really buying ops.

My bet is GDWN make a new high by end of March.

CR

[chrismcglone] 19/12/2008 19:49

J.T don't see them too keen either. Would certainly help some investors in the short term but would also encourage a higher turnover of stock. Which the current board would, i imagine, have as much interest in as watching Gordon Brown enunciate on the current woes.

[jimmy tarbuck] 19/12/2008 13:49

I think you've hit the nail on the head there, Tanners. A re-capitalisation of, say, 10 for 1 would loosen a ridiculously tight market in these shares. Somehow I can't see the conservative board doing that though. However, we can't complain - their prudence has helped them to be where they are now.

I've heard that GDWN hasn't had its land/property assets re-valued since the 19th Century. Not sure how true that is. Anyone out there know more ?

[tanners] 19/12/2008 10:58

Indeed, yet another superb performance from a superbly run Company.

Simon Cawkell mentioned that TNAV are a a bit low.......personally I prefer Companies that can generate and grow profits from a relatively small asset base, it usually means that earnings that are re invested generate a better return than those that have significant fixed assets that tend to eat earnings with CAPEX requirements.

A significant factor as to why WB would never invest in Airlines!

The one thing that I'd like to see is perhaps a share split at some time to help improve liquidity.

[dasv] 19/12/2008 10:27

sounds great chris, where do I sign up? ;)

[chrismcglone] 18/12/2008 22:30

I've seen it all now. Just been watching some numpty on Bloomberg urging 'folks' to put what's left of their cash into the new kid on the block. After slagging off everything else of course (that no doubt himself and his investment co were falling over themselves a year back to sign those same folks up to)

Anyway, they're called S.O.S funds. Wait for it...and i haven't made this up, honest. It stands for Structured Opportunistic Strategies. Nearly fell off the old arm chair laughing.

[cockneyrebel] 18/12/2008 21:00

I agree Chris - this is a lovely well run co, they have a fantastic market with good barriers to entry, few can cast to the size and quality of Goodwin, not sure everyone realises they aren't just a jobbing caster like Castings.

I think they will be £20+ in their own right as soon as this market revives, till then you can tuck them away and rest comfortably till the March trading update - it will soon be here :-)

CR