Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 08/7/2008 10:37

I'll make money in both GDWN and MKS Frauddy as I've longed it this morning too when it wen blue. I won't be holding a lifetime tho, like yourself I'll trade it. I expect the take over rumours will start soon, Philip Green or the Baugar lot. Will add more if it slips further, I will sell if they hit 250p I expect.

Bet MKS doesn't bounce like GDWN tho - and both have been around over 100 years.

DasV - rising input costs at GDWN will be passed on imo - they are dealing with the oil industry for their valves - these are must haves for the energy industry - there's plenty of scope to pass the cost on. Also the Euro has risen v the £ by about 20% over the past year so repatriated eatnings from Noreva (which is german) should convert into 20% more £.

CR

[bugs22] 08/7/2008 10:14

Blue in a sea of red lol

[dasv] 08/7/2008 09:12

ydderf you are braver than me. I wouldnt touch UK banks, builders and retail with a 100ft pole right now.

It is interesting that chartwise GDWN has so far bounced off the fib retracement point. I would contend this offers a support level for the price. As Chris mentioned the chart gradient wasn't sustainable but in my opinion points to the potential next target for the share price

With a growth stocks (as CR argues) it's earnings growth which investors should note. Look at the PEG not the trailing PE.

My only concern with this stock is rising input costs. I hope GDWN can pass on increased steel costs successfully to customers without harming sales. My gut feeling is they will be able to as there is such a high global demand for their products.

I also believe that sterling faces further weakness against global currencies. This is because sterling has been propped up by a booming property market rather than an intrinsically sound balance sheet for the UK economy. Public sector borrowing is anomalously high and likely to remain so for many years. On top of this inflation is not a product of an overheating domestic ecomony but rather a function of Emerging market growth and an unusually high level of US government debt (if you have time, read:

Therefore interest rate rises will not be on the cards in the UK because rising interest rates will not affect commodity price inflation. There is no way of controlling inflation unless BRIC economy growth rapidly slows or the US buys its dollars back from Chindia.

UK export oriented companies servicing mining and oil services therefore have a glowing future with weak sterling enhancing their competitiveness against european peers.

The only fly in the ointment is rising energy and steel costs. It will be interesting to see the interims to see if there is any impact.

[ydderf] 08/7/2008 06:05

you will all make more money in Marks and Spencer imho - lets run these two against each other at last nights closing prices, I admit to a purchase of Marks at 216 but still haven't been tempted by Goodwin!

PS just been told by my broker that Marks will open lower this morning, I hope so, because I want to buy more......can any of you say that about Goodwin?

[melody9999] 08/7/2008 00:14

CR - I've held when seemingly I should have sold. Because nothing significant has changed (except sentiment) that will affect results. I'm not sure how valid chart analysis is when the share is so thinly traded, but it bounced right off the previous resistance at 800 odd today. Have we turned a corner?

[cockneyrebel] 07/7/2008 21:53

OK wipo1, in that case you work on the past - does the market look backwards or forwards? If GDWN did 200p eps last year would it be cheap if it was only going to do 20p in the coming year?

The answer is no - you have to project to work out valuations.

Bu that aside, just look at the earnings in the first 9 months of this year = 66p! if you just divided that by 3 and times by 4 to annualise that you get 88p eps for the full year just completed compared to 65p last year! If they have had a Q4 like Q3 they will have done 93p eps for the year just gone. 30-40% eps growth on an historic PE of about 8.5 - 9. Forward PE even lower and more great growth.

They now have the vermiculite plant up and running, they have the $10m radar antena order and a full year of the Noreva synergies to kick in this year and and last weeks acquisition all to boost earnings in the current year. An 125 year old co always run by the Goodwins and still run by the Goodwins - if they haven't let the business colapse in 125 years are they really going to when there's an energy boom goin gon?

What makes me laugh is everyone is a bull @ £14 yet halve the share price and ask them to buy then and they are all frit ! You make money buying low. Even if these went lower then buying now means any bounce would likely get you back up to this level - as worst scenario in my boo, hence me buying today.

Greed and fear I'm afraid - greed means those wanting to buy keep waiting for another 20p off sale, fear means those watching conjour up all sorts of demons in their mind as to the fall. Nothing has changed, only the mind of the punter that could find every reason to buy these at £14 and now every reason not to @ £8 lol.

Of course Frauddy is saying why don't you all sell - he regrets not buying these when I first mentioned them to him @ £7. Now he'll knock them while he buys them of those he tries to scare - that's how he bought his stake in AXN - go read the thread - he's there scaring everyone then suddenly he owns a big chunk :-)

There will be days when these are going up £1 a day too imo.

CR

[wipo1] 07/7/2008 21:14

CR - I can't calculate something i can't see, forward P/E's are all pie in the sky a bit like Darlings growth forecasts, I am not on this thread to slate GDWN, I am just trying to think the way the markets are thinking at the present time, like you say they might be wrong, I might be wrong, you might be wrong, nobody really knows. If you have the bottle and money to fight the markets what you think is right then good luck to you.

[cockneyrebel] 07/7/2008 20:18

Smarm - the reason I said I had 180% profit in these was to illustrate to the Frauddy boy that I have a profit, unlike his £100K punch in the groin from SUY or his instant loss in DVO and GRG.

Yep, I wish I'd sold at £14 and £13.95 and £13.90 and £18.95.............

That's all with hindsight - just as I could well be posting here any day from now 'don't you regret not buying @ £7.90p?' You can hang on and wait and wait and wait to buy - it's called greed and not knowing when you're looking a gift horse in the face.

GDWN will post near 100p eps for this year and anything between 125p-150p in the coming year. That's a fwd PE between 6.8 and 5.6.

Wipo - you obviously can't calculate a fwd PE if you think CHTR is on a lower PE or any of those that you list and what matters is PEG not PE - want to tell me how those compare to GDWN's 38% growth last yearand the 50% odd growth they will have this year? CHTR - FTSE250 Engineering sector and it doesn't pay a divi worth the name. GKN doesn't even have earnings growth!


Take a look at WEIR and WSM - they are more like GDWN's anti backflow valves.

WEIR's on a fwd PE of 18 and the same yield, growth half that of GDWN,

WSM is on a fed PE of 23 and no yield - growth half that of GDWN

GDWN, higher growth, higher yield, PE one third (60% less than that of the above.


Illiquidity causes stocks to go up fast too when there isn't an overhang - look at the history of the chart.

Frauddy - you're last post shows your desperation. Trolling cos you find me a threat to your ego lol. Who would listen to you - they had your advice on SUS in the form of 'with all that cash they're not going bust'. Wealth Warning: Frauddy's shares can go down as well as go bust.

CR

[wipo1] 07/7/2008 18:41

Good company wrong sector, Yddef - You do have a point about the valuation, look at GKN,CHTR,BOY FTSE 100 and 250 stocks and cheaper p/e than gdwn!

[ydderf] 07/7/2008 18:22

why don't all of you sell tomorrow?

mark this post for review in 14 days and see i am right - crookney take my friendly advice, a uk metal basher with a double digit p.e, i doubt if it will last 36 hours......

[smarm] 07/7/2008 18:10

dasv - LOL - no mate, the important thing is that we learn from our decisions so that we can, perhaps, do things differently next time around.

S

[dasv] 07/7/2008 17:49

WRT regrets: its important to let go of things you can't change. It's unconstructive to go over what one should have done. Trade forward cos you can't trade back.

[smarm] 07/7/2008 17:36

CR - it's no good talking about 180% at £14. That's been and gone and you now hold at today's price. Tell me honestly, do you seriously have no regrets about not selling at £14?

S

[pav 1] 07/7/2008 17:30

cr, agree with you here but will good results make a difference to s.p, chw is a prime example now back at levels were directors bought a month ago with good interims last week.

[cockneyrebel] 07/7/2008 17:20

Nope, but what do you do - sell up, join the rest of them and exaccerbate the fall and risk selling right at the bottom and see it bounce as you sell? Or if you think these actually make a cracking 'investment' rather than 'trade' or 'punt' and stick with it?

Personally in this market there are few stocks I would have the confidence to stick with but GDWN have been going over 125 years, they are still run by the Goodwin family. They have the best earnings growth anywhere and nobody has shown me an earnings growth that can beat this yet:

Earnings Growth Record

2003 = 25.5p, 2004 = 27p (+6%), 2005 = 35p (+30%), 2006 = 47p (+35%), 2007 = 65p (+38%).

Current Year:

Q1, pre tax, £2.03m = 19.8p eps
Q2, pre tax, £2.33m = 20.62p eps
Q3, pre tax, £2.9m = 25.86p eps 66.28p for 9 month.


Markets are never right, they are just an incorrect snapshot at any given time. I think when the results come out then investors will see these are trading very unjustifiably on one third the ration of the likes of WSM, WEIR, HTG etc while the growth record is far better.

I'm prepared to hold and add till the market realises it - at the Aug results or before imo.

CR

[stegrego] 07/7/2008 17:05

CR - i actually think you are correct about results - just doesnt make for pleasant reading at the mo

[cockneyrebel] 07/7/2008 16:21

Bless - SCS Frauddy? How much did you lose in a few weeks there was it you said? £100K+ ? One of your 'life changing investments' like DVO is rapidly becoming for you.

At least I had 180% profit in a lot of my GDWN at £14 and I'm still well in profit here now - something you can't say for any of your recent forays into GRG and DVO !

CR

[ydderf] 07/7/2008 15:25

CR kissed, amongst others, TPT API - what can be done to stop these mayhem making lips?

[pav 1] 07/7/2008 14:29

yep got another 200 at 825, way oversold, now ticking back up

[cockneyrebel] 07/7/2008 13:54

Stegrego - nope, not the kiss of death, just bad breath I think you'll find - try Listerine.

Short term the market can be very wrong but I bet by the Aug results it changes its mind.

Just got myself another 500 - lets have the discussion in Aug. It's not just GDWN going down, there's a lot of stocks out of favour at the moment, rightly or wrongly - how many do you have hitting a new high?

CR

[stegrego] 07/7/2008 13:46

The CR kiss of death hits yet another stock...
Worse still, im invested in this one!

[smarm] 07/7/2008 13:45

dasv - very difficult to set up stops on a stock like GDWN so I'm hugely sympathetic. Volume today has beeen 4x normal but is still only 4k (via LSE). It seems inconceivable that a share could fall this far on such low volume. Well, rightly or wrongly I have bought a few but I will be out sharpish if I have made a mistake. No point in selling high if one doesn't buy low.

S

[dasv] 07/7/2008 12:12

I guess that makes me "stupid beyond belief". In my defence I've been out the country, and don't like setting stops on stocks with low liquidity.