Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[smarm] 03/7/2008 08:34

First target met. 38.2% retracement from 2003 and hit the 2005 trendline. If it doesn't bounce from here then the 50% fib gives support at £739 'ish'.

Sorry CR, it's not nice but the only reality is the price and the chart gives us clues as to where that's going. I have no doubt GDWN is an excellent cmopany and that this is nothing more than a temporary setback.

I resented your 'deramper' comment yesterday because I'm neither ramper or deramper and I hope you will acknowledge that the chart (and the chartist) were right.

Be careful out there.

S

[smarm] 03/7/2008 00:05

pote - 2.5k is 3.5 x average over the last 10 days but you didn't look on PLUS. There are another 2.6k on there. So that's 7x the average for the last 10 days. It may seem trival but there are sellers about.



S

[pote] 02/7/2008 23:41

I also agree with chris, but lets not over-react to less than 2.5k trades today.

pote

[smarm] 02/7/2008 23:34

chris - I'm with you 100%.

Cr - best of luck with it.

S

[chrismcglone] 02/7/2008 23:12

I agree this is a great company and will be one of the first on my buy list when the time comes. However, i am standing ready to sell everything now bar my gold.

The problem with putting faith in the fundamentals at a time like this, is that the market couldn't care less. As the old saying goes, the market can remain wrong longer than you can remain solvent.

There is a lot worse to come i am afraid.

[nurdin] 02/7/2008 22:50

'Goodwin Steel Castings continues to win multi million dollar orders for valves
and components for use in high efficiency electrical power generating plant, be
it in China, India or the USA.

Goodwin International, having recently expanded its range of check valves to
include the nozzle check valve to complement its dual plate check valve, and
with its new sister company in Germany, Noreva GmbH, is expected yet again this
year to win record levels of orders from the oil, gas and LNG industries world
wide which have an impressive five year investment programme to keep pace with
the increasing world demand.''

Id be very surprised if the demand has slackened since they made that statement at the interims.Their geographical spread and the focus on power generation,oil,gas and LNG industries gives them a lot of protection from the slow down being experienced by other sectors of industry.

[wipo1] 02/7/2008 22:36

Market makers marking down anything in this sector, not really been any real selling, so no cause to panic.

The CGS chairman is always quite cautious, the broker covering the this stock has now changed his forecast for cgs to 15.9 for 2009 he had it 14m last week after the results - hardly any disaster 500k off profits.

Both GDWN and CGS are good quality companies.

[cockneyrebel] 02/7/2008 21:54

Yeah, yeah, as I said, chartist will have the voo doo doll out.

I've seen engineering co's giving some back lately smarm, that's because they are end of cycle and shorters move from one sector to the other. Can't see anyone shorting this as it's too illiquid. It's already given back a lot too.

Still, you can deramp as much as you like now you've sold.

CR

[smarm] 02/7/2008 21:24

CR -industrial engineering companies are facing a slowdown, GDWN will not be exempt. The chart broke a key level today and anyone ignoring it is likely, assuming the market continues to fall, to be in for some pain down to the July '05 trendline, somewhere around £9 (as you have said). £8.95 is also the 38.2% fib retracement to 2003, and having gone through the 23.6% today, it is now more than likely it will continue to the 38%. The good news is that the trendline and the fib converge around this level and so may provide some good support.

If that all fails then it's back to the '03 trendline and that's likely to be somewhere between £6 and £8, depending on the speed of the fall but Fib suggest it will be £6 (61.8%).

It all seems ludicrous abut what is cheap can always get cheaper and the number one priority is capital or profit preservation. Personally I rate profit preservation alongside captial preservation but then I'm in the business of
making money!

Now, charts maybe voodoo and all that but on GDWN the fact the fib lines up so neatly with the trendlines suggests one ignores it all at one's peril.

Glad I sold yesterday for a respectable 5% loss because today it would have been a lot more. I will be back when the market is favourable.

S

[cockneyrebel] 02/7/2008 19:22

I think the chart here is pretty irrelevant but not bothered by it. I suspect now the chart has broken then the chartists will say £8.50 to £9 is possible going by the major support. I'll buy even more if we see that, not sure you can use the chart as a great guide in an illiquid stock tho.

Spread makes it pointless trying to trade imo, if you get it wrong you're hammered trying to buy back.

CR

[chrismcglone] 02/7/2008 16:38

Almost tempted now but i am going to keep the gunpowder dry.

By the time this market rout is over it will be shooty-in. Already some great companies are trading at lower prices than i have ever seen but it still doesn't look like the carnage is over.

Unfortunately the only way is down for the time being.

( i am 80% invested myself just now so not enjoying it ).

[cockneyrebel] 02/7/2008 16:03

yes BIGFELLA - chart obviously following many others in this market.

Yep, I read the CGS results - I guess some might have done a read across to GDWN from those and that might be part of the selling.

CR

[wipo1] 02/7/2008 14:48

CR - very true, looks like the gloomy manufacturing data yesterday has spooked investors, I am in CGS and that is hit as well with worries of higher costs, time will tell if the current price reflects how bad it will hit them?

[the big fella] 02/7/2008 14:43

Funny no mention of the chart. Last time I read this it was all about bouncing from the trend line. Current markets are no time to stick your head in the sand.

[cockneyrebel] 02/7/2008 12:55

Who knows what worries investors in any stock - most worries are unfounded imo but when shares are falling we all like to have something to worry about that wasn't worrying us when they were rising.

As Jimmy Greaves would say - 'it's a funny old game'.

CR

[melody9999] 02/7/2008 12:48

errr- a Zulu stock with a PE of 10 now and 40% growth in a great sector. oversold?

[wipo1] 02/7/2008 10:02

Great company, but probbaly fears that higher electricity costs will erode margins?

[cockneyrebel] 01/7/2008 12:01

August 24th I think.

OK res, but I haven't known GDWN make a duff buy yet and I'm sure this isn't a charitable donation to the chinese casting sector. There has to be good synergistic reasons for acquiring them imo.

Still earnings enhancing too, even on an historic PE of 12 as the earnings are far greater than the return would have been in interest.

CR

[mrmillionaire] 01/7/2008 10:32

When is the Income statement for year ended 31st March 2008 expected?

[stegrego] 30/6/2008 22:50

Looks like they had money burning a hole in their pockets to buy this company, unless they have a special plan.

[res1606] 30/6/2008 22:43

Wrong numbers, CR, I think.

100% of £158k UK company, taxed at 28% = £114k
49% of £607k Thai company, taxed at 35% (say) = £193k
51% of £461k Chinese company taxed at 25% = £176k

They are paying 12.4x historic earnings, not getting control of the most profitable Thai venture and we know little about the growth prospects here.

Not as cheap as you suggest if I understand the press release correctly. Is jewellery equipment likely to be in strong demand as jewellery producers cash in on the global boom in jewellery spending over the next few years???

[stegrego] 30/6/2008 22:15

SP back to trendline

Not sure about the acquisition - Jewelry manufacture?

[cockneyrebel] 30/6/2008 18:28

Nice acquisition announced today for £6m. Looks like GDWN gain another £1.2m profit per annum and more with the synergies.

Should add 10-15% to GDWN's profits next year at least :-)



CR

[davidwilkin] 24/6/2008 17:48

its not cheap compared to MCM and SGI - they would be my prefered small cap plays, particularly if they both got 10% cheaper as they may well do.

For now though the hot money is with FXPO.