Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[silverfern] 24/6/2008 08:36

thanks for that serrata. If you've got the time, please have a look at CHG.

[serratia] 24/6/2008 00:05

Looking into the financials one of the valuations I check is the price to cash flow metric.With Goodwin the working capital change seems very lumpy which I need to look into further.For starters I chose to look at the historical price to cash flow excluding W.C changes.The market tends to look one year into the future so I've calculated the price to cash flow in the following year.
In 2004 the share price maximum was 3.7* 2005 cash flow,the minimum was 3*.As this is low it was logical that the price rose in 2005.Running this forward to 2005 the max/min ratio was 6/2.9.In 2006 the ratios were 6.1/4.7. For 2007 I have estimated 2008 sales of £80.3m,an operating profit of £10.8m before tax and finance charges and a cash flow pre W.C. changes of £12.8m.The 2007 ratios were then max/min 5.7/4.4.
The market therefore has valued Goodwin at between 4.5 and 6* cash flow pre W.C change.
So what price 2008? For 2008 sales I've taken £80m and £96m for 2009.I've estimated operating profit before finance and tax of £10.8m 2008 and £12.1m for 2009.At the EPS level this is 98p for 2008 and 121p for 2009.
If the market continues to value Goodwin at between 4.5 and 6* cash flow at 1180p this is 5.7* 2009 cash flow. On this basis the shares are either fairly valued or my 2009 earnings are too low.
If anyone has different figures Im happy to debate/review but at 1180p without further info this looks fully valued on my take on 08/09 earnings.

[cockneyrebel] 23/6/2008 08:14

Wier Group trading statement strong today - further anecdotal good news for GDWN.

cr

[bigalan3] 23/6/2008 06:46

BANG ON THE TREND-LINE. EXPECT TO SEE A BOUNCE OFF THIS WEEK. An excellent company.

[serratia] 20/6/2008 19:29

I have spent a couple of days reading all the posts and running through the financials and Goodwin has many attributes.
One question someone may be able to answer - Whilst sales grew in H1 08 vs H1 07 a large part of this was due to the aquisition where R.O.E. sales rose from £2.1m to £9.1m.In the Pacific Basin sales fell from £14.1m to £6.35m.Is there a reason I've missed?

[cockneyrebel] 18/6/2008 13:46

Still bouncing bang on trend this morning.

CR

[melody9999] 17/6/2008 22:17

i've already bought 2 chunks above this level so overall slightly down....but not worried and better to be in a stock like this one rather than most others.

[chrismcglone] 17/6/2008 17:43

Don't need convincing CR. With you all the way on this one. Just greedy for a slightly better entry point. Can't help it. Especially in the current market.

[dasv] 17/6/2008 14:21

good sector to be in right now too.

[cockneyrebel] 17/6/2008 14:16

They don't need to to growing at anything over 5% p.a. to justify the currnet PE imo.

Bouncing right on the chart trend today.

All I'd say to you is this is the growth trend:

2003 = 25.5p, 2004 = 27p (+6%), 2005 = 35p (+30%), 2006 = 47p (+35%), 2007 = 65p (+38%)

All you can go by is the trend and they are on course to grow earnings 45% this year. Giving the radar contract win, the Noreva acquisition with its synergies and cross selling opportunities and the vermiculite lant up and running then I reckon they have to do 30p+ eps per Q this year after douing 28p eps or more in Q4.

If people can't see the value of buying the hottested growth co on the LSE, fully listed, on a PE of 9 or less then that's their problem. These will fly again at some point tho, whether it's now or at the results or between the two imo. Just screamingly cheap and you rarely get the chance to buy these on such a decent dip.

CR

[chrismcglone] 16/6/2008 22:06

Just how much growth is left in the tank at these rates is what i am trying to fathom CR.

If i thought they could repeat the last 5 years performance i would shift everything into this and retire from investing. Still hope it comes back a bit yet before i make a first modest purchase.

[cockneyrebel] 16/6/2008 17:06

Well think about it - GDWN are clearly going to do around 28-30p eps or more in Q4 - if you just annualised that for the year ahead and allowed no growth the eps would be around 120p and a PE of 10.

Factor in that the growth rate has been increasing at a pace and you see how cheap these are imo.

If they only did 28p earnings in Q4 and only grew earnings at 2p per Q this year then the eps for the year will be 132p anda PE around 9. Annual earnings growth of around 40% and a PE of 9 is pretty horny.

And lets not even work out what happens if the grow earnings faster than that.

CR

[chrismcglone] 13/6/2008 10:46

Falling back into the longer term trading channel again.

I will hopefully get the chance to buy in at £11.

[cockneyrebel] 12/6/2008 13:18

GDWN - the dip being bought back up.

Fwd PE8-9 imo, 35-45% earnings growth increasing year after year - the most classiest act on the LSE.

Fully listed and ISAable.

Vericulite plant, Noreva acquisition and $10m radar antennae contract all to kick in this year too.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 12/6/2008 13:02

Moving up.

Take a look back up the thread - the guy that's done best here is Jimmy Tarbuck, buying and holding - plenty of pull backs like this riden out with a smile.

Basically you have Robbie Burns followers that also followed his daft stop limit (way tooo tight for a £14 share) and so they buy high and sell low. Now they'll see it rising and be buying back having pocketed a loss - if they don't buy some other shrewdies will imo.

Quality like this derves a big premium, not a big discount.

Miss this dip and be miffed imo.

CR

[res1606] 12/6/2008 11:29

ok, 1075...

[davidwilkin] 12/6/2008 11:27

£11.60 pullback ?? - that would be to the high in March...im not a chartist but this sounds sensible does it not ?? So that means anyone on the sidelines wishing to buy should be looking around £11.75ish with the spread.

Right im off to put my buy order in now at £11.75. Hope shes filled

[cockneyrebel] 11/6/2008 22:05

I'm still in EDD, Only sold half.

I think if you try waiting for £11 you'll end up paying £15.

The vermiculite plant's earnings haven't kicked in yet and the Noreva synergies haven't either. These have a history - if you want to bet against a 5 year record like this with more EDD then good luck - my bet is these double before EDD rises 50% tho.

CR

[res1606] 11/6/2008 20:56

£11 here we come. Time to get back into EDD, CR.

[cockneyrebel] 11/6/2008 17:47

I see these ticked back up 5 points at the close - and RNO falling now - dear oh dear, do Robbie's followers really know what they are doing? Buy the lows, sell the highs!

GDWN on a low now, that's the time to be buying this one, on a chuffin dip - instead they'll all wait till it's 1450p and broken the recent high and then buy - then they'll panic at 1500 when it ticks down 10p and sell :-)

Get a calculator out and look at the eps growth, the PE, the PEG - it's the cheapest stock anywhere based on earnings growth, 5 years of earning gowth and the growth rate has increased every year - unheard of! The chart is so good cos the company is so good! Yet the fwd PE is single digit.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 11/6/2008 13:18

Mad, backwards and forwads chasing highs for a few pence and out - these are 10% off theier highs now - a trading statement, results or justs a couple of buys moving this up and the punters piling in and £15 looks likely in no time.

A little reminder:
--------------------------------------------------------
Earnings Growth Record

2003 = 25.5p, 2004 = 27p (+6%), 2005 = 35p (+30%), 2006 = 47p (+35%), 2007 = 65p (+38%).

Current Year:

Q1, pre tax, £2.03m = 19.8p eps
Q2, pre tax, £2.33m = 20.62p eps
Q3, pre tax, £2.9m = 25.86p eps 66.28p for 9 month.

--------------------------------------------------------

After doing 65p eps last year these are going to do 95p eps this year, perhaps more - a 45% rise or more.

130p eps for the coming year looks easily likely. PE 10 max, 35% earnings growth.

I have RNO but it ain't a patch on GDWN for growth and value imo.

CR

[nephie] 09/6/2008 11:43

I think the naked trader possie have moved over to RNO, bless em eh!

[melody9999] 03/6/2008 09:18

looking good to continue the upward trend now