Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[tanners] 03/6/2008 09:14

Indeed I'll agree on that one CR!

Decent buying opp last week........people have to learn with GDWN that they don't last long!

I'd be surprised if this fell back below 12 quid, just too many waiting to buy more.

[cockneyrebel] 03/6/2008 08:37

not long till we are back testing £14 imo will only take about 4K buys in small bits - or an end of year trading statement.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 02/6/2008 11:09

someone's buying the dip - watch the girls race after this one @ £15 after ignoring £13 imo

CR

[badtime] 01/6/2008 21:23

lol....yea but cr bets not man about someone elses tactics..they made a profit becos they thought it wud retrace...which it did..i call tht gd judgement...if u know tht a stocks going to keep going up plez let me know and i'll stik my hard earned into it...all comments made with the best of humour

[cockneyrebel] 01/6/2008 16:23

Dreadful ay? down two days running, disasterous.

CR

[cambium] 30/5/2008 16:01

nothing goes up in a straight line, and it will only encourage further new buyers to buy.

[sunbun] 30/5/2008 15:59

Why has this share been going down for the past two days?

[smarm] 30/5/2008 12:10

Oh yes, I see. No, what I said was that I have only bought a few for now...not that I have only bought a few back. I see the confusion. I bought back the whole stake but intend to buy more if it looks like a good'un. Anyway, let's just hope it goes up from here.

S

[cockneyrebel] 30/5/2008 11:58

OK - in your post 333 you said you'd only bought a few back that's why I questioned whether the trade actually worked that well.

CR

[smarm] 30/5/2008 11:36

CR - sold 1000, bought 1000 so I hold exactly what I held in the first place, which is the point. See what you are saying but we are looking at this differently.

S

[cockneyrebel] 30/5/2008 11:28

Yep. But it assumes you don't buy back your total holding. If you do you end up paying even more to get the rest of your stake back if the price ticks higher before you buy you'll have made less on the trade.

It's Deal or No Deal. You won't know if that was a worthwhile trade until you've bought your whole stake back and do the maths. If these rise 30-40p swift you'll be out of pocket for having sold and not having bought your whole stake back, simple as that, even if you have banked a profit. If you had no plans to buy back and were just banking a profit I'd say well done - hope you find something better to invest in cos I can't, and I suspect the higher Euro and the vermiculite plant kicking in on next years earnings will make these look an even better long term hold.

CR

[smarm] 30/5/2008 11:07

CR - here's the maths:

My scenario:

1000 @ 13.2 = total cost of 13278.

Sell

1000 @ 13.71 = 13697, profit of £419

Buy

1000 @ 12.7 = 12776

Currently banked gain of 419, showing 288 loss on last trade, up on the two trades by £133.

Your scenario:

1000 @ 13.2 = total cost of 13278.

@12.50 would be sitting on paper loss of 791.

Hope that clears things up.

S

[smarm] 30/5/2008 11:00

cr - lol - when does one ever know what is going to happen next but luck really didn't come into it as you can see from the very clear top around the price I sold.

I am now down 0.5% on the two trades, so in one sense you are right. However,having bought over £13, had I just sat there I would be facing a paper loss of some 7% from the point I sold, with no guarantee (it works both ways) that I would get that back. I hope the purpose of the trade is clear.

Anyway, not here to argue, we're all happy and that's what counts.

S

[cockneyrebel] 30/5/2008 10:54

smarm, that is luck then, if you admit it could have kept going imo.

And if you've only bought a few back you haven't made that £1 a share on the trade, you've made a bit of it back. By the time you buy the lot back (if you do) you'll have paid two lots of dealings and your average is likely to be a lot higher than 1271p for your buy back.



CR

[smarm] 30/5/2008 10:48

CR - lucky? LOL. I call it paying attention but it was a risk selling when I did because it could have just kept going.

evianone - yes, £12 a possibility, which is why I have only bought a few for now. Very difficult to time trades on a wide-spread stock like this but I agree with other posters that this still looks a cracking buy. If I'm wrong I'm out.

S

[cockneyrebel] 30/5/2008 10:36

Well smarm, you got lucky in that if you did trade it you were probably one of very few that would have got 1371p and you've bought back at 12.70p. Only a few would have got that price, most would have got 13.50p max and if they are thinking about buying back now they will have made 70p on the trade less dealing and stamp, about 3-4%. They may just have sold ahead of a trading statement for the year end too if they GDWN do one.

Most of if not all of yesterday's few sells would lose money on a buy back now. You won't time every trade like that and with a spread and a move like GDWN you'll need a lot of luck to time a trade perfectly, every time.

CR

[evianone] 30/5/2008 10:25

Smarm
I know how good you are with charts, i have been following this share price and my buying price would be £12.00 support level it get that low.

[smarm] 30/5/2008 09:18

CR - LOL - not that futile mate. I sold at 13.71 and bought back at 12.70, reducing what would have been a paper loss of 7.25% to just -0.85%.

I dunno, that doesn't seem futile to me. Whether I should have bought back today is another matter but even if it goes south from here I am better off than having just sat there like the proverbial lemon. That said, I totally agree with you that it is not a trading stock.

Well done on your header, a good piece of work there. I only have one issue and that's the assertion that Goodwin have something new.

Chin chin.

;-)

S

[melody9999] 30/5/2008 09:12

added - bargain

[nurdin] 30/5/2008 09:03

I have added...too good an opportunity to miss

[cockneyrebel] 30/5/2008 08:41

traders will now see the futility - monster spread at times - try to buy back after selling and it's cost you a packet.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 30/5/2008 08:37

the sort of time to be buying imo - dips like this are rare old things.

Current Year:

Q1, pre tax, £2.03m = 19.8p eps
Q2, pre tax, £2.33m = 20.62p eps
Q3, pre tax, £2.9m = 25.86p eps 66.28p for 9 month.

CR

[dasv] 29/5/2008 15:21

yes illiquidity can cut both ways.

I'm looking forward to the next earnings update.

[cockneyrebel] 29/5/2008 15:00

I agree - very illiquid tho - down on minor volume today.

Last trading statement was to Jan - since then the vermiculite plant has opened which should add to earnings this coming year - something I haven't even added in on my estimates just as a cushion.

CR