Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 15/8/2018 17:26

Just for you information endion I sold stock in two companies right before the bell. That wasn't manipulation, that was because I want to reduce the risk in my portfolio, especially with what may happen in the US markets in the afternoon session. This allows me to carry it elsewhere, such as here. I bought more today at 974. The volumes are currently minuscule, and they will be even lower in the last week of August. Any selling will take the price down without buyers on the other side.

There isn't a lot the company can say to address this, the only thing that will is buyers returning. The company should thus concentrate on producing product that people will want to buy. I'm buying because I think the forward update in the results will continue to say good things about all the titles. Don't forget though that those whom use the rear view mirror for investing will only see the 34 million revenue and 2 million profit from FY18. At these prices the forward multiple for FY19 looks likely to be undemanding. I have a vision for what trading might look like on results day and I'm preparing for that.

[4wingrove] 15/8/2018 17:20

Ffs what is the problem with this share down nearly 40%

[endion] 15/8/2018 16:33

Sorry for all the posting today, just want to add some insight into the literal last minute of trading.

The Bid - Ask were 962 - 964, with heavy support on the bid at level 2. then in the last minute or two our shorter/manipulator jumped in and pushed through 11, then 7, then 2 simultainious sells. Driving the share price down to where it closed with bid-ask 952-956. Literally just shoving the share price down an extra 10p for a lower close price.

Below is a screenshot of level 2 a few moments before the seller jumped in. I’m currently in China, hence why the time reads 23.25 rather than 16.25 at the top.

[mark4231] 15/8/2018 15:59

The only way I see news around Tencent affecting FDEV is the delayed potential of FDEV games being available on WeGame. However, FDEV have never actually said that that is part of their plan and therefore current FDEV revenue estimations do not include that possibility.

[endion] 15/8/2018 15:46

Thats true. And i know a lot of investors who dont really know about frontier or their prospects, likely only bought in due to the tencent investment.

For a mutlibillion company like tencent though, their investment into Frontier is smaller than peanuts. Effectively it has no actual bearing on Frontier at all, aside from market sentiment of course. But then Ive learned that the market is as fickle as a sociopath most of the time.

Interestingly there was a chunky £96k sell a short while back that didnt effect the share price at all. And yet at other times, trades as small as £100 have knocked it down. Im not even sure whats going on anymore at all with this trading action.

[czeck] 15/8/2018 15:26

Endion; that was true but they did not know that Tencent was going to post their first profit drop in over 10 years. The fact that the Chinese Reg. body has also blocked Monster Hunter does not help sentiment.

[endion] 15/8/2018 15:23

There were chunky director buys at £13 earlier in the year. They will now be in a fair amount of red too if that makes anyone feel any better. They will know better than most the upside and potential here. So £13 for them seemed either a good entry or top-up point.

[liam1om] 15/8/2018 15:13

Approaching key support here. Could bounce now or fall through dramatically. 50% down in a few months is showing very oversold.

[mark4231] 15/8/2018 14:49

We're definitely caught up with the Tencent news/results, unreasonably I think. No idea if there is manipulation going on although I wouldn't dispute endion's theory.

I've bought a few more this afternoon, never thought I would see this price again. The games are selling well (see recent RNS), the company is solid and making money - the only question at the moment is what is the next franchise but that will be answered in time.

[nimbo1] 15/8/2018 14:39

the only thing i know for sure is its not going to 0...

[alotto] 15/8/2018 14:38

Did I catch a falling knife?

[hawaly] 15/8/2018 14:30

Currently meditating endion....... finding my inner, more passive self.

[endion] 15/8/2018 14:28

I think there is also some share price manipulation going on. Czeck pointed out a previous short convo, and its quite on point. Look at the last half hour of trading, the flurry of small simultainious trades, confusing the bid and ask and then throwing in a lower trade to force the share price down.

I wouldnt be suprised if hawaly was working for whoever is shorting this.

[nimbo1] 15/8/2018 14:25

this is caught up in the tencent results, unfortunately

[hawaly] 15/8/2018 14:14

This really is deja vu

Google confirmation bias while you're there (perhaps?)(more passive endion).

[czeck] 15/8/2018 14:06

I recall a little conversation a while back (posts 3035 & 3036)

Bizzare number of small trades this afternoon. Anyone have any ideas to explain it? Never seen anything like it.



It's called 'painting the tape'.

An eod and/or eow phenomenon. Google it!


Is this what is happening here today again?

[endion] 15/8/2018 13:56

Can I make a believer of you yet bamboo? I know you are an experienced trader, have you never come across manipulation on aim before? I know that I have, across at least 2 other shares I own on aim. I would prefer it not to be, however from watching the trading behaviour closely for most of this downtrend I am fairly convinced.

People should have a look at trading since 11.30. There are mutliple trades going through simultainiously, throughout the day since then. Which in of itself is unusual for such an illiquid stock. Then the bid and ask price are fluctuating and replacing eachother within a seconds notice on the back of single trades. There are three trades at £10 for some reason at 11.41. Later on there is a sell of 1347 shares @976p at 13.38.59. Where as previously the bid had been 984p. Again, later on, there is another sell of 1k plus shares @973p, but then the bid rises afterwards.

None of this makes any sense.

[bamboo2] 15/8/2018 13:44

Not much help I know, but similar price action occurred recently at WAND. The price there has now undergone a reversal. A reversal will happen here at some point.

Like hpcg and some others, I prefer not to believe the manipulation theories, but having looked quite v closely at some of the reported trades, and the timing involved, I'm not so sure.

[czeck] 15/8/2018 12:35

seems ADvfn changes the letters 'tt' to 'xx' for the IP address.

[czeck] 15/8/2018 12:34

Sorry work for me- try hxxps://stockflare.com/stock/FDEV.L

[compnews1] 15/8/2018 12:13

Hi Czeck, thanks for sharing but when copy the link you gave, there was a warning virus (4 found) and the message said download free. Oh dear, what is going on. Just let readers know. Anyone experience the same prob.?

[endion] 15/8/2018 11:43

Also, looking at the trades, the declared buys vs sells are very confused. There are a fair few buys reported as sells, one at least confirmed by a member above. Very little comparative volume is being traded at the moment, and even the current dips are not being driven by very heavy selling, even though it may look like it.

Thanks for the info czeck. Its certainly an interesting theory.

[czeck] 15/8/2018 11:35

DEFINITION of 'Multiple Compression':
Multiple compression is the effect that arises when a stock sees its earnings increase, but the stock price doesn't move up (or even goes down). The result is that the given multiple (P/E ratio) is reduced even though nothing is fundamentally wrong with the company. Compression of a company's multiple can be interpreted as the valuation being called into question.

[czeck] 15/8/2018 11:33

hxxps://stockflare.com/stock/FDEV.L
Frontier Developments PLC's forecast earnings moved 0.0% over the last week, but the price is -10.1%. It's PE ratio is now 171x earnings.