Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[endion] 31/8/2018 09:58

Yes mark you are right. Some of the recent free updates only apply if you bought the Horizons expansion pack. However, as far as updates go, the Horizon DLC is the only paid for update so far. There are a ton of ship skins etc in game which are paid for. Im not sure what the popularity of these are.

[mark4231] 31/8/2018 09:14

Off the top of my head there was the original game "Elite: Dangerous" (paid for). Then there came "Elite: Dangerous Horizons" season pass (paid for) - of which an update has just been released and another big update later this year. I don't think any more big updates are planned for that which would mean something new for "Elite: Dangerous" next year - presumably monetised. Then there are lots of small paid cosmetic updates - skins for ships and so on. I think I'm right in all of that!

[shanklin] 31/8/2018 08:58

Thank you Mark.

Does anybody know what's been payable for with Elite Dangerous please?

[mark4231] 31/8/2018 08:54

With Planet Coaster the paid updates have all been content updates - extra rides and cosmetic things etc.. All the game updates have been free. I would expect them to do the same with JWE, some extra dinosaurs would be paid updates but updates to the game are free to existing owners of the game - there would be a community backlash I think if FDEV tried to charge for game updates only 6 months after launch of the game. That's my expectation anyway, we'll see!

[haggishunter] 31/8/2018 08:43

i don't think that it will be free, Ed kept on about the update on the 13th will be free, so i am sure the next one will be £7.99 around November-December.

[mark4231] 31/8/2018 08:40

I would expect another big update for JWE before Christmas, but that it will be a free update. With that and a price discount I expect JWE to sell very well in the run up to Christmas.

One thing I have noted over the years is that every successful game (not just FDEV's) has lots of people complaining about it. It's when people aren't complaining that you should worry, because that is when they don't care.

As well as the next franchises it will be interesting (and exciting) to see what FDEV do separately to grow. Referencing the July trading update - "we will continue to explore other models to accelerate our scale-up".

[nimbo1] 31/8/2018 07:43

I should think so shanklin. In some ways I think making JWE was an amazing thing for FDEV as it put them on the map but also a bit of a catch 22 - there were always going to be a lot of people complaining about it, thats what happens when there are passionate fan bases with differing expectations. Its good FDEV will continue to improve it as they do all their games because it increases their standing with the player communities. For me its now all about the next game and the multi year compounding on offer here as they start reinvesting the cash from JWE. Quality of the next game is the most important thing imo whatever the title or franchise is.

[shanklin] 31/8/2018 07:33

I presume, as well as making JWE 1.4 somewhat more user friendly, it will also put in place the foundations for many of the enhancements being requested on the user forum... ...presumably an update which users would have to pay for, in time for Christmas.

[nimbo1] 31/8/2018 07:28

JWE has 15% off and back onto page 1 of top sellers list

[endion] 30/8/2018 16:47

Thanks fotr the clarification Glaws2. A £28m ebitda is still fairly low. On 1.5 million sales of JWE it would stand at £36m. Gotta start somewhere though i guess, and always better to outperform!

[mark4231] 30/8/2018 16:28

Thanks for the correction Glaws2. Still seems a low estimate, IMO.

[glaws2] 30/8/2018 15:57

The Berengberg forecast of ~£20m is for EBIT - not EBITDA. Sharepad has £19m EBIT and £28m EBITDA.

[rar100] 30/8/2018 15:25

FDEV TOP RISER ON AIM MARKET TODAY

[mark4231] 30/8/2018 13:54

£20m for 2019 is a crazy low estimate (did they mean 2018?), particularly when we know that JWE has already sold at least 1m copies. Oh well, if they're forecasting a share price of £16 off of that then there is plenty of upside for us well above a share price of £16!

[sogoesit] 30/8/2018 13:49

All this stuff is just shooting in the dark imv.
Added to which UK analysts cannot afford to over-egg the forecasts so err on the very cautious.
I would stick with your own figures endion... and you/we have skin in the game.
I do this with my own investments and you don't have to have more than a simple spreadsheet.
If I followed analysts I would never recognise any upside.

[rivaldo] 30/8/2018 13:48

Here's a link for the article in post 3339 about Berenberg's initiation:

http ://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/203883/berenberg-presses-play-on-a-host-of-uk-video-games-makers-including-codemasters-and-frontier-developments-203883.html

[endion] 30/8/2018 13:29

So working backwards from that they are assuming a £20m ebitda for 2019? That seems remarkeably low. Considering that if you add the license fee, store charge and VAT to that figure, it only equates to 762,666 units sales of JWE. Or am i missing something?

[hpcg] 30/8/2018 13:29

To be clear when i say this "good story" I mean one of rising revenue and cash generation, not some sort of hole in the ground, miracle drug, collaboration rich, revenue one day story. For those the worst thing that can happen is to actually start doing anything.

[isayi9999] 30/8/2018 13:20

[...]

Frontier has serious potential
As for Frontier, May and co call this the “multi-year play”. They expect the company’s current titles, which include Planet Coaster and the new Jurassic World game, to outperform in the near term. The real potential lies further down the line though.

“With Frontier in a position to release at least one new title per year, its capacity to scale its IP portfolio is at an inflection point,” read the note.

“We, therefore, envisage a roadmap for Frontier to have ten franchises by 2023 (from four currently). If it achieves this, EBIT [underlying earnings] could surpass £60mln (more than 3x our FY 2019E forecast).”

The analysts have set a punchy price target too, forecasting the share price to rise to 1,600p over the next 12 months.

[rar100] 30/8/2018 12:40

A famous name coming up for the next franchise, well folks is this 007?
Let the rumour mill start rolling...:-)
(Buy on rumour sell on fact)

[scooper72] 30/8/2018 12:34

Your not alone. Just got 2k worth at roughly the same price.

[runthejoules] 30/8/2018 12:08

Bought another 115 at 1075p. Better late than never...

[hawaly] 30/8/2018 11:21

Yep.... "Story Stocks" are the best.

Back in @ 994 on Wednesday.

GLA.

:-)