Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 30/8/2018 10:46

Thanks Kamitora. Analysts being added to the coverage list is a good sign. Of course it means broader awareness and genuine interest but there is more. Brokers add coverage when there is a good story and drop it when there isn't. One of the reasons that notes are mostly positive is that good news is good for business, so there is self selection just as much as being nice to get trade for other parts of the company. Of course this is what we do as private investors, spend our time on the interesting companies and ignore the mundane.

[funkmasterp12] 30/8/2018 10:24

Higher lows and a definite chart up tick - let's hope this holds!

[rivaldo] 30/8/2018 08:41

Excellent news, cheers Kamitora. 1600p would be a good start....:o))

[villarich] 30/8/2018 08:07

It seems the market is happy about that!

[kamitora] 30/8/2018 07:53

Berenberg initiates at Buy, target 1600

[shanklin] 30/8/2018 07:09

Re JWE 1.4

[shanklin] 30/8/2018 07:06

Fortnite is only the start of longer battle with Google over downloads



Quite an interesting article about sites charging unreasonably high fees for providing download facilities. No specific mention of Steam

[endion] 30/8/2018 04:05

Rar, any game on steam can be bought in china. However it hasnt had an "official" chinese release through a chinese platform or through a chinese publisher. Were it to do that then its unit sales would be considerably more.

[mark4231] 29/8/2018 20:30

I agree rar100 that some of the reviews are disappointing. However, sales are what matters for us investors and they seem to be great. 1 million in the first month was fantastic! Planet Coaster took 9 months to achieve that milestone. £45 to £50 is still expensive for a game in the UK, so I do expect a lot more sales when JWE goes on sale - I expect in the run up to Christmas.

Anyway, just announced, JWE update coming September 13th. A couple of heavily requested features in there.

hxxps://forums.frontier.co.uk/showthread.php/444417-Free-Update-1-4-Coming-September-13!?p=6959866#post6959866

[vworlds_cambridge] 29/8/2018 19:15

Reviews look decent to me (steam 7/10, PS/XB 4.5/5 on Amazon), and we know from Frontier that the game has sold well. JWE will be updated in response to feedback, and new features added. Many more units will be sold when they decide to discount the price.

However, the real question now is repeating this next year. We don't know exactly what the new franchise under development is, but we do know thst it's a very well known name. The share price will respond to that announcement, if not before.

[rar100] 29/8/2018 18:39

Endion, I thought that as the game was selling in China that the numbers sold would be almost mind boggling - the same way that the population is...£40 - £50 here in the uk is not much to pay for a game (a curry for two with just a half lager each if you are lucky or somewhere fairly grim!)But I don't know if that's a lot in China - maybe like a hundred and fifty quid here perhaps?
I read some reviews from China, some good but a lot not so great, especially one, well written in good English that was pretty critical on a major site which I imagine is read by many gamers in China before they go out and buy a game. I could understand the frustration of repetative task not getting one very far.
If FDEV made a fanfare of the next update to fix most of the things gamers don't like it would be good. But I don't know enough to judge, I think in the UK people would just get it faults 'n all knowing things would improve and hey it's only 50 quid....
Roll on results and news of next franchise and sales of JWE

[mad foetus] 29/8/2018 16:35

picked up another 1,000 late this afternoon

[endion] 29/8/2018 16:10

rar100, Frontier's entire business model is based around updating their games. They listen to their gamers, and as much as they can, they give them what they want. Having said that, what really matters to the SP, and to investors, is revenue. Many companies have had massive revenue on terribly reviewed games, look at PlayerUnknown Battlegrounds for an example. JWE is by no means a bad game, and is only going to get better with time. I say this as it's not about "turning JWE around". It was very well received by most, received great reviews by most professional magazines. What it does depend on is the fourth franchise. Without it there is hardly any forward guidance. Till we know that, investors will be wary I'd imagine.

[mark4231] 29/8/2018 16:08

Yes, FDEV do have a reputation of supporting their products. They continue to develop and improve Elite: Dangerous (released December 2014) and Planet Coaster (released November 2016) and have said that they will do the same for JWE. As much as continued success and support of their currently available products they need to show they can do the same with future franchises too - number 4 and 5 which are already under development although we don't know what they are yet.

[rar100] 29/8/2018 15:57

Seems like a lot depends on the updates to JWE
I hope that FDEV will take note of the gamers criticisms of the game (many clicks needed for simple task) and change things to suit.
Have FDEV got a good reputation for that sort of change to a game?
If they could make major changes to enhance the game and iron out wrinkles that folk don't like, it could alter things 100% - With the right publicity.

[sogoesit] 29/8/2018 14:58

Unlikely imv. I think even the JWE game requires an incubation period ;-)!

[mark4231] 29/8/2018 10:34

Latest Elite: Dangerous update (Beyond - Chapter 3) was released yesterday, in parallel the game has gone on sale on Steam.

Livestream FDEV video on Twitch this evening to preview the upcoming JWE update (release date unknown).

FY18 results out in one weeks time.

Hopefully the share price will wake up soon!

[endion] 29/8/2018 00:02

Haha, yes! Thanks shanklin.

[shanklin] 28/8/2018 17:54

Endion

Typo: you mean 1m units in 5 weeks

[endion] 28/8/2018 15:59

Did some different calculations of what earnings per share fdev might achive in 2019 based on varying JWE sales.

1.

2 million JWE sales. 1.75m standard (£45), 250k deluxe (£50).

Profit minus VAT, 30% online store charge, 10% license fee. I havent deducted tax as historically Fdev have been exempt so far: £47,906,250.

Back catalogue for 2018 is projected to be £34m. Down £3m from previous year, so I shall make 2019 £30m. As it happens, company expenditure has historically been circa £30m, so I shall disregard this income in all scenarios.

Eps: £1.24

Share price with PER 14: £17.31

With PER 20: £24.7

With PER 35: £43.28

2.

JWE sales of 2.5m. 2m standard, 500k deluxe.

Total profit: £60,375,000

EPS: £1.56

Share price with PER 14: £21.81

With PER 20: £32.16

With PER 35: £54.53

3.

JWE sales of 3m. 2.4m standard, 600k deluxe.

Total profit: £72,450,000

EPS: £1.87

Share Price with PER 14: £26.17

With PER 20: £37.39

With PER 35: £65.43

Worth remembering they sold 1million units in 5 weeks, with the deluxe version outselling standard on PS4 and XBOX stores.

[endion] 28/8/2018 15:18

As much as I would love to have personalisation of buildings I doubt that will be made available. I cant see Universal allowing their image and franchise to be manipulated in such a way by users. Giving gamers more variety of content, that impacts gameplay however, certainly is possible.

[runthejoules] 28/8/2018 12:35

Someone keeps selling at 1020! Preposterous!

[rivaldo] 28/8/2018 11:47

A sudden whoosh :o))

[shanklin] 28/8/2018 10:56

LOL rhomboid

Hastings posts are pretty informative and benefit from direct access to the CE and GD. AIUI the number of people working on Elite Dangerous and Space Coaster suggest FDEV must be pretty confident about sizeable ongoing income from these games.

The second page of the above link contains one post suggesting the JWE update is pretty extensive. AIUI, FDEV aims to produce games that are pretty decent and then interact heavily with the user community in terms of bug fixes and enhancements (some paid for), which will presumably encourage more people to buy the game.

It would certainly be interesting to know the new sales of ED and SC by month since release to get an idea as to how many new players are drawn in by the improvements post initial release.

[rhomboid] 28/8/2018 10:40

Thx Martin
I appreciate that i’m just unable to form a view on qualitative issues relating to FDEV as I’m a non gamer...but i’ll Keep trying 🙂