Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[mad foetus] 04/9/2018 10:26

No, not me, but it has been mootedLooking through the Universal franchises I can't see anything that feels like a fit with FDEV (Bourne? Fast and Furious?) so it may come from left field

[mark4231] 04/9/2018 10:24

dsct, I don't think your figures are too far off. If the share price is based off 17/18 then the share price is too expensive. If the share price is based off what *I think* they will achieve for 18/19 and later years then the share price is very cheap.

[hastings] 04/9/2018 10:20

Can't see Bond featuring as a Frontier game myself.

[mad foetus] 04/9/2018 10:12

They have said revenue will be around £34m. Also that next year they "could achieve revenue towards upper end of expectations (58-88m)"I think that is conservative. If run rate from elite and coaster is c34m, then with 1m units of JWE sold in first five weeks and paid for content to come in next FY I would be amazed if we didn't beat all expectations One risk is if next franchise is 007 as film has been delayed.

[dsct] 04/9/2018 09:51

We know this year's figures won't be wonderful, and the main development will be the 18/19 figures - especially H1, to see how JWE has been doing.

The current share price is slightly below my purchase price (1150p), and although my hand has been hovering over the buy button, I've resisted, with my aim always being to wait until the results.

I've been trying to work out some figures, and as this is a new-ish investement to me, don't have much to go upon apart from history and expectation, so the figures below may be way off the mark! lol

I've guessed at revenue being slightly lower than 16/17, reduced Gross Profit %, an approx. doubling of H1 costs. The main problem with these figures is that they make H2 loss-making, which is confusing and not what I'd anticipate - perhaps some more DYOR to be done, so I understand FDEV better !!!

Revenue: £35m
Gross Profit: £22.5m (64%)
Expenses: £20m (£9m R&D, £5.5m S&M, £5.5m Admin)
PBT: £2.5m
EBITDA: £8.75m
EPS: 6p

An increase of Revenue to £37.5m, and 65% GP, would up the PBT (£4.4m), EBITDA (£10.6m) and EPS (11p).

If these are anywhere close, then I'd expect the share price to tumble (initially?), so will be looking to double-up my current holding in the 8:30am-9am period, when it MAY start to recover.

GLA and DYOR :o)

[rar100] 03/9/2018 17:39

There was an article recently put out by Saga mag. about the 'vast hordes' of folk over 55 who buy a lot of games, retiree's have the time to play...I would have thought that JWE would appeal to them as a bit of thought is needed & therefore its more interesting than just shooting things. But I see no advertising to that market.

[hpcg] 03/9/2018 15:49

A small but useful minority of gamers are minors. Simple mathematics tells you that, the 12-18 cohort is the same size as the 18-24 in developed countries. I am expecting a one off Christmas boost for JWE in that market place, but really little or nothing from updates. The 16+ will likely have some money to play with and of course one wants them bought into the concept.

[hawaly] 03/9/2018 15:13

Virtue signalling courtesy of the Licence Fee.

In a world of 24/7 news.

[sogoesit] 03/9/2018 09:21

Keep buying... above and below 1137... ;-)

[runthejoules] 02/9/2018 19:45

Was gonna buy some more around here on MOnday but realised I already did that on the way down at 1137 too... CWS sold some at the top, but whaddayagonnadoo?

[mark4231] 31/8/2018 21:30

Great couple of days for the share price, with this rise into the results on Wednesday I'm cautiously optimistic for the market reaction in the second half of the week.

[endion] 31/8/2018 16:40

Indeed. The market has had its fun, now back to business.

[haggishunter] 31/8/2018 16:38

1st time in 14 weeks that the share price is higher than it started the week. long may it continue.

[sogoesit] 31/8/2018 12:34

Indeed; the future is speculation.
And you are welcome to it rar100.

My view is that politics are less important to markets than earnings and the US economy is producing good, above expectation, earnings. Currently it is China that is suffering.

The will of the people will prevail in the US.
Something that cannot be said of a majority of the rest of the world, China most especially.

GLA

[rar100] 31/8/2018 12:28

And what happens after all time highs.....
I meant today they are awful for the reasons I stated
I'm doing well with the US, but Trump plays a too dangerous game
Alianate the world - the world will eventually win, soon I hope

[sogoesit] 31/8/2018 12:16

"Markets awful"... they're at all time highs in the US!
#FakeNews ;-)

[mark4231] 31/8/2018 11:54

Yes, quite possible China regulators/Tencent news has affected FDEV today - perhaps unfairly as China not a big market for FDEV at the moment I think (unless China potential built into the share price?). FDEV share price seems quite resilient at this level, famous last words. FY18 results statement on Wednesday.

[rar100] 31/8/2018 11:49

Markets awful - will Canada do a deal re: NAFTA? Now Trump willing to pull out of WTO. Will Trump impose 200billion tarrifs on China in a few days?
Even Burford Capital down a tad, must be really bad out there...

[rar100] 31/8/2018 11:36

Another bit of news about China regulators worried about kids eyesight and looking to regulate more on games selling. BBC news, Red button, Business for the article.
Reason for drop today?
Anyone know how sales in the US are doing?

[mark4231] 31/8/2018 11:28

Shanklin, yes, I believe so - with new impetus being given to sales of the games when big updates are released or when they are discounted (which happens for all games, it's normal). Both Elite: Dangerous and Planet Coaster are hugely updated - and much better for it - from their original releases.

[shanklin] 31/8/2018 11:17

So big picture wise, most of the income from previously released games derives from new sales of the game rather than from the paid-for expansions?

Thoughts welcome please.

[ck1111] 31/8/2018 10:27

There has been a hint about Elite paid content this year. Lifetime Expansion Pass (LEP) owners were moaning about lack of value and there was a response saying they could expect paid content this year.