Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[endion] 16/8/2018 10:34

The increase was mostly due to planet coaster and especially elite performing better than expected. With elite having its best year yet, 4 years after release.

[mark4231] 16/8/2018 10:32

The RNS of 3rd July was also nice - "The Board's expectations for the current financial year have increased".

[rar100] 16/8/2018 10:13

Thanks for the response people, I guess I will wait this out and hope that there is very positive forward guidance in the results and possibly a bit of education to new investors such as me as to why this has nosedived in their opinion, it is an opportunity for FDEV to show that the market can get it wrong but only if the reasoning is valid.

As far as 'positive RNS', the last one I know of was the 19.07.18 one of surpassing the 1 million sales, maybe the market was looking for far more?

Today's rise is encouraging, let's hope that it's still there at the end of trading....

[mark4231] 16/8/2018 09:40

rar100, we have had positive RNS after positive RNS but the share price still fell so I wouldn't dare predict the share price after the results (other than no way is it going to zero or anything close to it, this is a solid company making profits). I topped up yesterday, in anticipation of a significant rise over the next few months, but we will have to wait to see and what actually happens.

Up until now the company has made a major game release every two years or so, hence the FY2018 results won't incorporate a major game release. Going forward they plan to have a major game release every year - the sooner the market understands this and the (positive) impact on revenues the sooner FDEV's share price hopefully becomes less volatile and more based on expected future revenues.

[compnews1] 16/8/2018 09:39

No doubt the recent Tencent ban by the Chinese Gov. has negative impact on FDEV in a wrong way. The ban was on the psychological mind of children when their reward is weapon. I am no game player but from the title of FDEV games the are not guns and weapon, are they? Correct me if I am wrong here. So investors had over reacted to this news - I think. Ok it may have impacted on FDEV 's income but to the extent that the share price this low. We shall see the result soon.

[endion] 16/8/2018 09:27

Double post error.

[endion] 16/8/2018 09:26

To be honest I wouldnt want to second guess what the market might do considering how it has responded so far to all of the positive news flow. The FY results are expected to be above market expectations, as announced in the trading update a while back, but it will likely post a small reduction in profits as no new game was released last year. Whether the market will see past this and look to the profits of 2019, which will be many mulitples of that, I couldnt say.

[travellingtrader] 16/8/2018 09:26

If they provide an update on forward guidance it will affect the share price Hopefully they will reiterate what they said in the update as probably too early for an upgrade.
Looks like we had a blow off bottom with the market selloff and tencent news providing perfect reasons to drop the price yesterday. Almost fully recovered the drop already.

[rar100] 16/8/2018 09:12

From the response so far (no response) as to whether the year end results will affect the SP's slide, I take it that no-one has any idea - I have no idea either and is the reason I asked. I would hope to cut my loss but also think the share price could go to virtually zero.

So if there is some informed comment it would be good to read

[averyb] 15/8/2018 20:56

Thanks Lucky, I was lead to believe Stochastics is as reliable an indicator of divergence as any and has served me well in the past, but for whatever reason, perhaps not here.

[averyb] 15/8/2018 19:52

I'm no expert chartist, but has anyone else here who charts noticed the strong Bullish Divergence on the Stoch since June 28th and now on the RSI since 2nd Aug?

I noticed it weeks back on the Stoch, so held here, confident of a bounce. But not to be, wondered if anyone had a second opinion on this Divergence? Bamboo?

hxxps://www.tradingview.com/x/V26zbkkf/

[rar100] 15/8/2018 19:08

12 working days until results, will the share price tank further or go north I wonder.
The news re: Tencent is irrelevant to FDEV as a Co. but not good in the market with FDEV at a one year low, people making 2+2 = 1.
The sales numbers for JWE should be good

Any reasoned thoughts would be welcome as to the share price the day after results.

[endion] 15/8/2018 17:31

That’s good to hear hpcg, and thank you for your thoughts!

Any thoughts on the simultainious trades? Would you assume its just coincidental that they get processed at the same time? I know it’s not uncommon in a lot of stocks to see it, but it’s usually more liquid stocks with larger numbers of trades per day. This is all just speculation by me of course and I’m happy to admit that.

[hpcg] 15/8/2018 17:26

Just for you information endion I sold stock in two companies right before the bell. That wasn't manipulation, that was because I want to reduce the risk in my portfolio, especially with what may happen in the US markets in the afternoon session. This allows me to carry it elsewhere, such as here. I bought more today at 974. The volumes are currently minuscule, and they will be even lower in the last week of August. Any selling will take the price down without buyers on the other side.

There isn't a lot the company can say to address this, the only thing that will is buyers returning. The company should thus concentrate on producing product that people will want to buy. I'm buying because I think the forward update in the results will continue to say good things about all the titles. Don't forget though that those whom use the rear view mirror for investing will only see the 34 million revenue and 2 million profit from FY18. At these prices the forward multiple for FY19 looks likely to be undemanding. I have a vision for what trading might look like on results day and I'm preparing for that.

[4wingrove] 15/8/2018 17:20

Ffs what is the problem with this share down nearly 40%

[endion] 15/8/2018 16:33

Sorry for all the posting today, just want to add some insight into the literal last minute of trading.

The Bid - Ask were 962 - 964, with heavy support on the bid at level 2. then in the last minute or two our shorter/manipulator jumped in and pushed through 11, then 7, then 2 simultainious sells. Driving the share price down to where it closed with bid-ask 952-956. Literally just shoving the share price down an extra 10p for a lower close price.

Below is a screenshot of level 2 a few moments before the seller jumped in. I’m currently in China, hence why the time reads 23.25 rather than 16.25 at the top.

[mark4231] 15/8/2018 15:59

The only way I see news around Tencent affecting FDEV is the delayed potential of FDEV games being available on WeGame. However, FDEV have never actually said that that is part of their plan and therefore current FDEV revenue estimations do not include that possibility.

[endion] 15/8/2018 15:46

Thats true. And i know a lot of investors who dont really know about frontier or their prospects, likely only bought in due to the tencent investment.

For a mutlibillion company like tencent though, their investment into Frontier is smaller than peanuts. Effectively it has no actual bearing on Frontier at all, aside from market sentiment of course. But then Ive learned that the market is as fickle as a sociopath most of the time.

Interestingly there was a chunky £96k sell a short while back that didnt effect the share price at all. And yet at other times, trades as small as £100 have knocked it down. Im not even sure whats going on anymore at all with this trading action.

[czeck] 15/8/2018 15:26

Endion; that was true but they did not know that Tencent was going to post their first profit drop in over 10 years. The fact that the Chinese Reg. body has also blocked Monster Hunter does not help sentiment.

[endion] 15/8/2018 15:23

There were chunky director buys at £13 earlier in the year. They will now be in a fair amount of red too if that makes anyone feel any better. They will know better than most the upside and potential here. So £13 for them seemed either a good entry or top-up point.

[liam1om] 15/8/2018 15:13

Approaching key support here. Could bounce now or fall through dramatically. 50% down in a few months is showing very oversold.